Introduction to

Probability
Instructor
Osama Bin Ajaz
([email protected])
Lecturer, S & H Dept.,
FAST-NU, Main Campus
 Content
• Sample Space and Event
• Tree diagram
• Set theory
• Venn diagram
• Counting techniques
• Additive and multiplicative rules for probability
• Conditional probability
• Bayes’ Theorem
 Sample Space
• What is an experiment?
• Any process or activity that generates a set of data is called
experiment. For example:
i. Tossing a coin
ii. Rolling dice
iii. Playing cards
iv. Opinion of voters
v. Launching of missiles
 Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called
the sample space (S). For example:
 Tree Diagram
• Tossing coin: 2 times, 3 times, 4 times
• Tossing die & coin together:
• Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective, D, or non-defective, N. List the elements of the sample
space.
 Events
• An event is a subset of a sample space. For example:

• The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all

elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by
the symbol A’.
 Intersection of Events
• The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B,
is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
• Let E be the event that a person selected at random in a classroom is
majoring in engineering, and let F be the event that the person is female.
Then E ∩ F is the event of all female engineering students in the classroom.

• Let V = {a, e, i, o, u} and C = {l, r, s, t}; then it follows that V ∩ C = φ. That is,
V and C have no elements in common and, therefore, cannot both
simultaneously occur.
 Mutually Exclusive events
• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ,
that is, if A and B have no elements in common.
 Union of events
• The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪ B, is
the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.

• Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e}; then A ∪ B = ?

• Let P be the event that an employee selected at random from an oil

drilling company smokes cigarettes. Let Q be the event that the
employee selected drinks alcoholic beverages. Then the event P ∪ Q =?
Venn Diagram

• A ∩ B = 1, 2
B ∩ C = 1, 3
A ∪ C = 1,2,3,4,5,7
B’ ∩ A = 4, 7
A∩B∩C= 1
(A ∪ B) ∩ C’ = 7,2,6,
Venn Diagram
• B∩C= Null Set

•A∪B= A

• A∩C= At least one element

 Venn Diagram
• Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions, which may
easily be verified by means of Venn diagrams, are as follows:
 Multiplication Or Fundamental
Rule of counting

i. How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of
dice is thrown once?
ii. How many there digit numbers can be formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, and
8 if: (i) repetitions are not allowed (ii) repetitions allowed
 Set of Example (iii - viii)

(iii) A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of

Tudor, rustic, colonial, and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story,
and split-level floor plans. In how many different ways can a buyer order one
of these homes?
(iv) If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many
different ways can these two to be elected?
(v) Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips
from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an
accessory bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam
order the parts?
(vi) How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5,
6, and 9 if each digit can be used only once?
(vii) How many new arrangements can be made from the letters of the word
FAVOUR so that vowel occupy even place.
 Permutation
• A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
• The number of permutations of n objects is n!.
• Suppose you have to arrange 3 books: Statistics, Maths, Physics on a
shelf. How many arrangements are possible?
 Permutations of “n” objects
taken “r” at a time

• In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be

given to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If
each student can receive at most one award, how many possible
selections are there?
 Example # 10:
• A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting
of 50 people. How many different choices of officers are possible if

(a) there are no restrictions;

(b) A will serve only if he is president;

(c) B and C will serve together or not at all;

(d) D and E will not serve together?

 Circular Permutations

• The number of permutations of n objects arrange in a circle is (n –1 )!.

 Permutations of n objects when
they are not all different.

• Find the number of permutations of 9995

• In how many ways can the letters of the word STATISTICS be arranged?
• In how many ways can 2 red, 3 blue, and 4 green chips be arranged in a
row, if the chips of same color are not distinguishable from each other?
• In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs
to have 10 players standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there
are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors. How many
different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class level
will be distinguished?
 Combinations
• Selection of “r” objects from “n” different objects and when the order
is not important.

• In how many ways a committee of 3 students can be selected from 4

students.
• From a group of 10 boys and 6 girls a committee of 3 boys and 2 girls
are to be selected. In how many ways can this done?
Exercises
o
 Probability
• Probability is a measure of the chance that
an uncertain event will occur.

Subjective: Objective:
• Personal experiences • Classical approach
• Relative frequency approach
• Axiomatic approach
 Examples (1 – 3)
1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head
occurs?
2. A die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting:
(a) an even number (b) a number less than 3 (c) a 4 or
higher number (d) a 7 (e) A number from 1 to 6

3. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as

likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number
less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
 Example 4
• Two balanced dice are rolled once. What is the probability of getting
(a) A sum of 11 (b) same number on both dice (c) a sum of 13
A deck of playing Cards
 Example 5 – 6
5. A card is drawn at random from the well shuffled pack of 52
playing cards. Find the probability that the card:
(a) is a Jack (b) is not a Jack

6. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of

holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
 Example 7
• A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical,
10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly
selected by the instructor to answer a question, find the probability
that the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major and (b)
a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.
 Additive Rule:
Not - Mutually Exclusive Events
Additive Rule: Mutually Exclusive Events
 Example # 08 – 10
8. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department
in a university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two
companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from
company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If
he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both companies is
0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two
companies?
9. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair
dice is tossed?
10. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white,
red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of those colors?
 Examples (11 – 12)
11. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or
more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next
day at work?
12. Suppose the manufacturer’s specifications for the length of a certain type of
computer cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this industry, it is known that small
cable is just as likely to be defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable.
That is, the probability of randomly producing a cable with length exceeding
2010 millimeters is equal to the probability of producing a cable with length
smaller than 1990 millimeters. The probability that the production procedure
meets specifications is known to be 0.99.
(a) What is the probability that a cable selected randomly is too large?
(b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is larger than 1990
millimeters?
Exercises