Network Analysis : PERT &

CPM

CPM- Critical Path Method

PERT- Programme
Evaluation and Review
Technique
Introduction

• Network analysis is one of the important tools for project management.

• Whether major or minor a project has to be completed in a definite time

& at a definite cost.

• The necessary information of any particular data can be represented as

a project network.

• These techniques are very useful for planning, scheduling and executing
large-time bound projects involving careful co-ordination of variety of
complex and interrelated activities
 Manufacturing of a laptop
1.Design and Prototyping
2.Component Manufacturing
3.Assembly of the
Motherboard
4.Display Integration
5.Keyboard and Input Devices
6.Battery Integration
7.Chassis and Casing
8.Quality Control and Testing
9.Software Installation
10.Final Assembly
11.Packaging
12.Distribution and Shipping
13.Support and Warranty
Objectives of network analysis

• Helpful in planning
• Inter-relationship of various activities
• Cost control
• Minimisation of maintenance time
• Reduction of time
• Control on idle resources
• Avoiding delays, interruptions
 Applications of network analysis
• Planning, scheduling, monitoring and control of large
and complex projects.
• Construction of factories, highways, building, bridges,
cinemas etc.
• Helpful to army for its missile development.
• Assembly line scheduling
• Installation of computers and high tech machineries
• To make marketing strategies
Methodology Involved in Network
Analysis
Describing the Project

Diagramming the network

Estimating the time of completion

Deterministic
estimates

Probabilistic
estimates

Monitoring the project progress

Key terminology

• Activity : All projects may be viewed as composed of activities. It is the

smallest unit of work consuming both time & resources that project
manager should schedule & control.

• An activity is represented by an arrow in network diagram

The head of the arrow shows sequence of

activities.
Classification of activities

• Predecessor activity: Activities that must be completed immediately

prior to the start of another activity are called predecessor activities.

• Successor activity : Activities that cannot be started until one or more of

other activities are completed but immediately succeed them are called
successor activities.

• Concurrent activities: Activities that can be accomplished together are

known as concurrent activities.

• Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume any resource but
merely depicts the dependence of one activity on other is called dummy
activity. It is introduced in a network when two or more parallel
activities have the same start and finish nodes.
Event

• The beginning & end of an activities are called as events .

• Events are represented by numbered circles called nodes.

i j

Event Event
start finish
Types of Events

• Merge event

• Burst event

• Merge & Burst Event

Path & Network

• An unbroken chain of activity arrows connecting the initial event to

some other event is called a path.

• A network is the graphical representation of logically & sequentially

connected arrows & nodes representing activities & events of a project .
It is a diagram depicting precedence relationships between different
activities.
Errors in network logic
• Looping :looping is known as cycling error and creates
an impossible situation and it appears that none of the
activities could ever be completed.

• Dangling : Sometimes a project network includes an

activity which does not fit into the end objective of the
project and is carried out without any result related
with completion of the project . Such an error in
network is called dangling
Guidelines for Network
Construction
• A complete network diagram should have one start point & one finish
point.
• The flow of the diagram should be from left to right.
• Arrows should not be crossed unless it is completely unavoidable.
• Arrows should be kept straight & not curved or bent.
• Angle between arrows should as large as possible.
• Each activity must have a tail or head event. No two or more activities
may have same tail & head events.
• Once the diagram is complete the nodes should be numbered from left
to right. It should then be possible to address each activity uniquely by
its tail & head event.
Stages for project management

• Project planning stages : In order to visualize the sequencing or

precedence requirements of the activities in a project, it is helpful to
draw a network diagram.

• Scheduling stage : Once all work packages have been identified and
given unique names or identifiers, scheduling of the project
• Project control stage :
Project control refers to evaluating actual progress against the plan. If
significant differences are observed, then the scheduling and resources
allocation decisions are changed to update and revise the uncompleted
part of the project
Advantages

• Planning & controlling projects

• Flexibility
• Designation of responsibilities
• Achievement of objective with least cost
• Better managerial control
Limitations of PERT /CPM

• Network diagrams should have clear starting & ending points , which are
independent of each other which may not be possible in real life.

• Another limitation is that it assumes that manager should focus on

critical activities.

• Resources will be available when needed for completion for an an

activity is again unreal.
Difficulties

• Difficulty in securing realistic time estimates.

• The planning & implementation of networks requires trained staff.
• Developing clear logical network is troublesome.
 1-2 A 3
1-3 B 4
Example 2-4 C 5
3-5 E 6
2- 5 D 8
Activity Predecessor
activity C
A none 2 4 F
A
B none
D
C A 1
6
D A
B
3 G
E B 5
E
F C

G D&E
Draw the network diagram for the following

D
Activity Predecessor
B
activity
5
A none

B A
F
C A A

D B

E C E
C
F D ,E
 A- 1. Activity (dimension less)
2. Duration (mins- years)

3 D
3 2
B
A F 3
5 5 6
1 2

C 1
4 E
6

Option 1 1-2-3-5-6--------13 hr.

Option 2 1-2-4-5-6-----------15 hr.
 Activity Duration To prepare the network
(min./hr./d To find the critical path 0-7
ay)
0-1 2 5
1-2 8 3 2
1-3 10
2-4 6 2
2-5 3 6
8 5
3-4 3 7
2 4
3-6 7
0 1
4-7 5
3 8
5-7 2
10
6-7 8
Option 1 : 0-1-2-5-7 Durations: 2+8+3+2 = 15 3 6
Option 2 : 0-1-2-4-7 2+8+6+5 = 21 7
Option 3 : 0-1-3-4-7 2+10+3+5 = 20
Option 4: 0-1-3-6-7 2+10+7+8 = 27

Critical path will be 0-1-3-6-7 , Duration 27 hrs.

Activity Duration
(min./hr./d
ay)
0-1 2
5
1-2 8
1-3 10
2-4 6 2
7
2-5 3
3-4 3
3-6 7 0 1 4
4-7 5
5-7 2 3
6-7 8 6
Option 1: 0-1-2-5-7, total time: (2+8+3+2 = 15)
Option 2: 0-1-3-4-7 total time: (2+10+3+5 = 17)
Option 3: 0-1-3-6-7 total time: (2+10+7+8 = 27) –Critical path
This shows
finish time
25

16 13
10 3 2

27
2 22 27
2 8 6 5
16
2
8
3
0 10
0 7 19
12 19
This shows
12 start time
Tail event
Head event
slack (0-0)
slack (0-0)
Activity Duratio Earliest Earliest Latest Latest Total Flot Free float Ind. Float
n start time Finish time start time Finish (Lf –Ef) or
(min./hr. Es Ef Ls time Lf (Ls- Es)
/day)

0-1 2 0 2+0 = 2 2-0 = 2 2 0 0-(2-2) = 0

0
1-2 8 2 10 8 16 6 0 0

1-3 10 2 12 2 12 0 0 0

2-4 6 10 16 16 22 6 0 0

2-5 3 10 13 22 25 12 0 0

3-4 3 12 15 19 22 7 1 1

3-6 7 12 19 12 19 0 0 0

4-7 5 16 21 22 27 6 6 0

5-7 2 13 15 25 27 12 12 0

6-7 8 19 27 19 27 0 0 0
Critical path

• Those activities which contribute directly to the overall duration of the

project constitute critical activities, the critical activities form a chain
running through the network which is called critical path.

• Critical event : the slack of an event is the difference between the latest
& earliest events time. The events with zero slack time are called as
critical events.

• Critical activities : The difference between latest start time & earliest
start time of an activity will indicate amount of time by which the
activity can be delayed without affecting the total project duration. The
difference is usually called total float. Activities with 0 total float are
called as critical activities
Critical path

• The critical path is the longest path in the network from the starting
event to ending event & defines the maximum time required to
complete the project.

• The critical path is denoted by darker or double lines.

Difference between PERT & CPM
PERT CPM
•A probability model with •A deterministic model with well
uncertainty in activity duration . known activity times based upon the
The duration of each activity is
past experience.
computed from multiple time
estimates with a view to take •It is one time estimate.
into account time uncertainty.
•It is activity oriented.
•It is three time estimates.
•Critical path method
•It is event oriented.
•Project Evaluation Review
Technique •It is used for construction projects &
•It is applied widely for planning business problems.
& scheduling research projects.
•PERT analysis does not
usually consider costs. •CPM deals with cost of project
schedules & minimization.
 QUESTION :
Activity Predeces Optimistic Most Pessim
(to) likely istic
sor (tm) (tp)
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
 Expected time
Activity Te = to +4tm+tp
6

A(1-2) 4
B(1-3) 3
C(2-4) 2
D(2-5) 7
E(3-5) 6
F(4-6) 4
G(5-6) 2

CRITICAL PATH : 1-2-5-6 or A-D-G

• Network
activity te EST EFT LST LFT Head Tail Total Free Indep
slack slack float float enden
t
float

1-2 4 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-3 3 0 3 5 2 2 0 2 0 0
2-4 2 4 6 9 7 3 0 3 0 0
2-5 7 4 11 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
3-5 6 3 9 11 5 0 2 2 2 0
4-6 4 6 10 13 9 0 3 3 3 0
5-6 2 11 13 13 11 0 0 0 0 0
 PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that involve
many inter-related tasks. it improves planning process
because:

1. It forms planner to define the projects various components

activities.
2. It provides a basis for normal time estimates & yet allows
for some measure of optimism or pessimism in estimating
the completion dates.
3. It shows the effects of changes to overall plans they
contemplated.
4. It provides built in means for ongoing evaluation of the
plan.
ESTIMATING ACTIVITY TIMES

• Optimistic time ( t0 ) : is that time estimate of an activity when

everything is assumed to go as per plan. In other words it is the
estimate of minimum possible time which an activity takes in
completion under ideal conditions.

• Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will take most
frequently if repeated number of times.

• Pessimistic time ( tp) : the unlikely but possible performance time if

whatever could go wrong , goes wrong in series. In other words it is
the longest time the can take.
EXPECTED TIME

• The times are combined statically to develop the expected time t e .

te = to + 4tm + tp
6

Standard deviation of the time of the time required to complete

the project
= tp - to
6
 STEPS INVOLVED IN PERT
• Develop list of activities.
• A rough network for PERT is drawn.
• Events are numbered from left to right.
• Time estimates for each activity are obtained.
• Expected time for each activity is calculated : to+4tm+tp / 6
• Using these expected times calculate earliest & latest finish & start
times of activities.
• Estimate the critical path.
• Using this estimate compute the probability of meeting a specified
completion date by using the standard normal equation
Z = Due date – expected date of completion
standard deviation of critical path
Activity to tm tp Te=(to+4tm+tp)/ Std.dev Variance.
6 .
1-2 (A) 2 5 14 6 2 4

1-6 2 5 8 5 1 1

2-3 5 11 29 13 4 16

2-4 1 4 7 4 1 1

3-5 5 11 17 11 2 4

4-5 2 5 14 6 2 4

6-7 3 9 27 11 4 16

5-8 2 2 8 3 1 1

7-8 7 13 31 15 4 16
Activity Te EST EFT LST LFT Total Free Indepen
float float dent
float

1-2 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0

(A)
1-6 5 0 5 2 7 0 0 0

2-3 13 6 19 6 19 0 0 0

2-4 4 6 10 20 24 14 0 0

3-5 11 19 30 19 30 0 0 0

4-5 6 10 16 24 30 14 14 0

6-7 11 5 16 7 18 2 0 0

5-8 3 30 33 30 33 0 0 0

16 31 18 33 2 2 0
7-8 15
QUESTION : The table shows activities of
project.
Duration (days)
JOB OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTIC
LIKELY

1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network &find expected project completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be completed in 41 days.
Variance of critical path

Activity To Tp variance

1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total=
10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated value i.e. 1.51 is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that project will be completed on
41 day.
 QUESTION:
Activity predecessor time estimates (weeks)

activity Preceding to tm tp
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
•Find the expected duration and
variance of each activity.
•What is the expected project length?
•Calculate the variance &standard
deviation of the project length.
activity to Tm tp te variance

A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an
expected length of 13 days. Hence the
expected project length is 13 days.

Project variance = 16/9 + 25/9 + 1 = 50/9