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    Lecture 1 Fish Population Dynamics Stock Assessment and Ecosystems

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    Kingdom Simfukwe
    The document discusses fish population models including the exponential and logistic growth models. The exponential model assumes constant birth and death rates leading to continuously increasing population size, while the logistic model incorporates density-dependent factors causing population growth to slow as size approaches carrying capacity. Parameters like intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity are important for describing population dynamics and assessing stock status over time.

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    Lecture 1 Fish Population Dynamics Stock Assessment and Ecosystems

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    Kingdom Simfukwe
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    The document discusses fish population models including the exponential and logistic growth models. The exponential model assumes constant birth and death rates leading to continuously increasing population size, while the logistic model incorporates density-dependent factors causing population growth to slow as size approaches carrying capacity. Parameters like intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity are important for describing population dynamics and assessing stock status over time.

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    The document discusses fish population models including the exponential and logistic growth models. The exponential model assumes constant birth and death rates leading to continuously increasing population size, while the logistic model incorporates density-dependent factors causing population growth to slow as size approaches carrying capacity. Parameters like intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity are important for describing population dynamics and assessing stock status over time.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    6 views19 pages

    Lecture 1 Fish Population Dynamics Stock Assessment and Ecosystems

    Uploaded by

    Kingdom Simfukwe
    The document discusses fish population models including the exponential and logistic growth models. The exponential model assumes constant birth and death rates leading to continuously increasing population size, while the logistic model incorporates density-dependent factors causing population growth to slow as size approaches carrying capacity. Parameters like intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity are important for describing population dynamics and assessing stock status over time.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 19

    Fish Population Dynamics, Stock Assessment

    and Ecosystems
    (AFS 81207) – Lecture 1
    Populations and population demographics
    • Any fish species population is characterized by the following properties:
    o Defined population size
    o Population growth rate
    o immigration and emigration rates
    o age and size structure of individual fish
    o specific geographic distribution.
    • How these properties change with time affect the dynamic behavior of a
    population.
    • Population models attempt to describe and explain aspects of this
    dynamic behavior
    Fish population models
    • In this lecture, the following fish population models are discussed:
    o Exponential population growth model
    o Logistic population growth model
    The exponential fish population growth
    • The rate at which the size of a population changes with time is described by the following
    equation:

    dN/dt = (b-d)N ≡ rN Equation 1.1

    where:
    N = population size
    t = time
    b = birth rate
    d = death rate
    r = intrinsic rate of increase (b-d), or instantaneous rate of population growth or percapita rate of
    population growth
    dN/dt = rate of change of the population
    • Assumptions of the exponential growth model
    o Birth and death rates are constant
    o The intrinsic rate of population increase is constant and independent of the population size
    The exponential fish population growth - contd

    • An integration of equation 1.1 leads to the following equation:

    Nt = N0e(b-d)t ≡ N0ert ≡ Nt-1er Equation 1.2

    Where:
    Nt = expected population size at time t
    N0 = Initial population size
    e = constant
    b = birth rate
    d = death rate
    • Equation 1.2 is called the exponential growth.
    o It implies a continuously increasing population (density independent) which may not always be the case.
    o In real life depending on balances between births and deaths the population can
     Be reduced to extinction,
     stay stable
     grow rapidly.
    The exponential fish population growth - contd

    • Population size (Nt) as a function of time (t)


    The exponential fish population growth - contd
    • The exponential growth model can be linearized using a natural logarithm transformation as follows:

    Ln(N0ert) = Ln(N0) + Ln(ert) = Ln(N0)+ rt Equation 1.3


    • The equation for the linearized graph is:
    • Ln(N) = Ln(N₀) + rt
    • This equation has the same form as the equation for a straight line (y = mx + b), where:
    • Ln(N) corresponds to the y-axis.
    • t corresponds to the x-axis.
    • r is the slope (gradient) of the line.
    • Ln(N₀) is the y-intercept.

    • The slope of Equation 1.3 is an estimate of the population growth rate, r, and the intercept an
    estimate of Ln(N0)
    • At equilibrium (dN/dt =0).
    o i.e. either N=0 (population extinct, and no immigration) or b = d and both are positiveis
    Growth rate (King 2007)
    The logistic fish population growth model
    • Derived from the exponential model, after some algebraic manipulation and re-parameterization,
    e.g.
    o Allowing r value to change in response to population size,
    o Introducing the equilibrium population size K
    • The derived logistic model was:

    dN/dt = rN (1-N/K) Equation 1.4

    o Where
     dN/dt = rate at which the size of a population changes with time
     r = intrinsic rate of increase
     K = equilibrium population size (also called carrying capacity)
    • The reasoning behind the model is that as the population size increases, birth rate decreases due to
    the following density dependent factors:
    o increased competition
    o reduced growth which would affect fecundity
    o reduce energy allocated to reproduction
    o increase in the death rates (possibly due to starvation, cannibalism, or predation).
    • The parameters r and K are always strongly correlated.
    • The maximum rate of population change occurs when N = K/2.
    The Logistic population growth model -
    contd

    Equilibrium rate of change of population size versus population size i.e. production versus stock size curve
    The Logistic population growth model -
    contd
    • Integrating equation 1.4 and reparametrization of the constants leads to the
    continuous solution to the logistic equation.

    Equation 1.5

    • Where
    Nt = expected population size
    N0 = starting population size
    t = any time after some starting time
    γ =(K – N0)/ N0
    K = equilibrium population size,
    r = rate of population change
    • Equation 1.5 of Nt against t generates an S-shaped curve
    The Logistic population growth model - contd

    Population trajectory when growing according to the logistic equation


    Discrete logistic model
    • The assumption of no significant time delays for differential equations
    (Equations 1.4 and 1.5) is unrealistic,
    • Hence, equation 1.5 can be converted to discrete time intervals as:

    Nt+1 = Nt + rNt (1-Nt/K) Equation 1.6

    • The discrete logistic model (Equation 1.6) is more appropriate for populations
    in seasonal environments with non overlapping cohorts.
    • Extra mortality source, e.g. fishing can be included to equation 1.6 as:

    Nt+1 = Nt + rNt (1-Nt/K) - Ct Equation 1.7

    where Ct is the catch at time t.


    Discrete logistic model - contd
    • Stability properties of discrete logistic model
    o Being density dependent, it is more capable of compensating for increases in
    mortality than exponential model
    o An equilibrium exists where Nt+1 = Nt (see diagonal line on phase diagram)
    o Has a non linear relationship between successive generations.
    o Assumes that the productivity, beyond replacement at any time, could be
    harvested (cropped) without damaging the population.
    o The maximum difference (which occurs at K/2) between the equilibrium and
    productivity beyond replacement is the MSY.
    The stock biomass needed to generate this productivity level is BMSY.
    Discrete logistic model - contd

    Phase diagram of the discrete logistic growth


    Dynamic behaviour of the discrete logistic model
    Dynamic behaviour of the discrete logistic model
    • Equation 1.6 (or 1.7) has a
    wide variety of different
    behaviours depending upon
    the value of the r parameter
    (at constant K value)
    • Most of such behaviours relate
    to imbalances in the density-
    dependent compensation for
    changes in population size.
    Tutorial 1
    (based on theoretical information)
    Question 1
    The initial number for each of the three populations of fish species (X, Y
    and Z) in a small lake was 10,000. Assuming that the birth rate for all
    the three populations was 0.11;
    a) Calculate and plot the exponential growth curves of the three fish
    populations if their death rates were 0.05; 0.11 and 0.3 respectively.
    b) How long could it take for the fish population with a death rate of 0.05 to
    double its number?
    c) How long could it take for the fish population with a death rate of 0.3 to
    become extinct?
    Tutorial 1 - contd
    Question 2
    You are provided with the following information about one Tilapia population: Initial population
    size (Nt) is 500; the maximum equilibrium size (K) is 10000; the rate of population increase (r) is
    0.6 and constant catch value (C t) is 100 Tilapia fish.
    a) Using the Microsoft Excel, calculate the logistic population growth model (N t+1 = Nt + rNt (1-
    Nt/K) - Ct) for the Tilapia population between zero and twenty five years and plot the graph
    of population size against time.
    b) Plot a graph of Nt+1 against Nt and in the graph include an equilibrium line (i.e. line where
    Nt+1 = Nt.).
    c) Using the graphs plotted determine:
    i. The time at which the Tilapia population will reach the maximum equilibrium size.
    ii. The population size associated with maximum productivity for the Tilapia fishery.
    d) Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of application of the logistic population growth in
    assessment of fish population dynamics and stock assessment.

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