CH04
CH04
CH04
Chapter 4
Discrete Random
Variables and
Probability
Distributions
Examples:
– Weight of packages filled by a mechanical filling
process
– Temperature of a cleaning solution
– Time between failures of an electrical component
Px 1
x
F x0 P X x0
Where the function is evaluated at all values x0
of
F x0 P x
x x0
E X x Px
2 2 2
x
Can also be expressed as
2 E X 2 2 x 2 P x 2
x
x Px
2
2
x Px
2
x
and
And
P 0 1 P and P 1 P
• The variance is x P 1 P
2
x E X x x x x P x
2 2 2
0 P 1 P 1 P P P 1 P
2 2
x ! n x !
P x probability of x successes in n
trials, with probability of success
P on each trial Example: Flip a coin four times,
x = number of ‘successes’ in sample, let x = # heads:
( x 0, 1, 2, , n)
n4
n = sample size (number of
independent trials or observations)
P 0.5
P = probability of “success” 1 P 1 0.5 0.5
x 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Slide - 31
Example 1: Calculating a Binomial
Probability
What is the probability of one success in five trials if the
probability of success is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and P = 0.1
n!
P x 1 P 1 P
x n x
x ! n x !
5!
0.1 1 0.1
1 51
1!5 1!
5 0.1 0.9
4
.32805
nP 5 0.1 0.5
nP 1 P 50.11 0.1
0.6708
nP 5 0.5 2.5
Examples:
n 10, x 3, P 0.35 : P x 3 | n 10, p 0.35 .2522
n 10, x 8, P 0.45 : P x 8 | n 10, p 0.45 .0229
Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Slide - 35
Using Binomial Tables
Cumulative probability Table
• Mean
x E X
• Variance and Standard Deviation
2 2
E X
x x
where expected number of successes per time or space unit
0.50
0.50 2
e e X
P X 2 .0758
X 2
Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Slide - 42
Poisson Distribution Shape
• The shape of the Poisson Distribution depends on
the parameter :