Chapter 5

Risk
Risk and
and
Return
Return

1
 Defining
Defining Return
Return
Income received on an investment
plus any change in market price,
price
usually expressed as a percent of
the beginning market price of the
investment.
Dt + (Pt - Pt-1 )
R=
Pt-1
2
 Return
Return Example
Example
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at $9.50 per share and shareholders
just received a $1 dividend.
dividend What return
was earned over the past year?

3
 Return
Return Example
Example
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at $9.50 per share and shareholders
just received a $1 dividend.
dividend What return
was earned over the past year?

$1.00 + ($9.50 - $10.00 )

R= = 5%
$10.00
4
 Defining
Defining Risk
Risk
The variability of returns from
those that are expected.
What rate of return do you expect on your
investment (savings) this year?
What rate will you actually earn?
Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a share
of stock?
5
 Types of risk
 Systematic
 Unsystematic

6
 Systematic risk
 Market risk
 Interest rate Risk
 Purchasing power risk

7
 Unsystematic risk
 Business Risk
 Financial risk

8
 Calculation of Risk
 Ex Post
 Ex-ante

9
 Determining
Determining Expected
Expected
Return
Return (Ex-
(Ex- ante.)
ante.)
n
R =  ( Ri )( Pi )
i=1

R is the expected return for the asset,

Ri is the return for the ith possibility,
Pi is the probability of that return
occurring,
10 n is the total number of possibilities.
 How
How to
to Determine
Determine the
the Expected
Expected
Return
Return and
and Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation

Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi)
The
-.15 .10 -.015 expected
-.03 .20 -.006 return, R,
.09 .40 .036 for Stock
BW is .09
.21 .20 .042
or 9%
.33 .10 .033
Sum 1.00 .090
11
 Determining
Determining Standard
Standard
Deviation
Deviation (Risk
(Risk Measure)
Measure)
n
=  ( Ri - R )2( Pi )
i=1

Deviation , is a statistical
Standard Deviation,
measure of the variability of a distribution
around its mean.
It is the square root of variance.
Note, this is for a probability distribution.
12
 How
How to
to Determine
Determine the
the Expected
Expected
Return
Return and
and Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation

Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) (Ri - R )2(Pi)
-.15 .10 -.015 .00576
-.03 .20 -.006 .00288
.09 .40 .036 .00000
.21 .20 .042 .00288
.33 .10 .033 .00576
Sum 1.00 .090 .01728
13
 Determining
Determining Standard
Standard
Deviation
Deviation (Risk
(Risk Measure)
Measure)
n
= 
i=1
( Ri - R ) 2
( P i )

= .01728

= .1315 or 13.15%
14
 Coefficient
Coefficient of
of Variation
Variation
The ratio of the standard deviation of
a distribution to the mean of that
distribution.
It is a measure of RELATIVE risk.
CV =  / R
CV of BW = .1315 / .09 = 1.46
15
 Assignment no 2
1. Calculate Expected return and risk
Possible Possibility of
returns (%) Ri occurrence
(Pi)
30 .10

40 .30

50 .40

60 .10

70 .10

16
 Determining
Determining Expected
Expected
Return
Return (Ex
(Ex post)
post)
n
R =  ( Ri ) / ( n )
i=1

R is the expected return for the asset,

Ri is the return for the ith observation,
n is the total number of observations.

17
 Determining
Determining Standard
Standard
Deviation
Deviation (Risk
(Risk Measure)
Measure)
n
= 
i=1
( R i - R ) 2

(n)
Note, this is for a ex post return.
R represents the population mean in
this example.
18
 Assignmement No 2
 Q2. Assume that the following
list represents the continuous
distribution of population returns
for a particular investment (even
though there are only 10 returns).
 9.6%, -15.4%, 26.7%, -0.2%,
20.9%, 28.3%, -5.9%, 3.3%,
12.2%, 10.5%
 Calculate the Expected
Return and Standard
Deviation for the
population assuming a
continuous distribution.

19
 Measurement of
systematic risk
 Correlation Method
Β = Cov i,m / Variance of market
index returns
 Regression Method

20
 Risk
Risk Attitudes
Attitudes
Certainty Equivalent (CE)
CE is the
amount of cash someone would
require with certainty at a point in
time to make the individual
indifferent between that certain
amount and an amount expected to
be received with risk at the same
point in time.
21
 Risk
Risk Attitudes
Attitudes
Certainty equivalent > Expected value
Risk Preference
Certainty equivalent = Expected value
Risk Indifference
Certainty equivalent < Expected value
Risk Aversion

22
Most individuals are Risk Averse.
Averse
 Risk
Risk Attitude
Attitude Example
Example
What are the Risk Attitude tendencies of each?

Mary shows “risk aversion” because her

“certainty equivalent” < the expected value of
the gamble.
Raleigh exhibits “risk indifference” because her
“certainty equivalent” equals the expected value
of the gamble.
Shannon reveals a “risk preference” because
her “certainty equivalent” > the expected value
of the gamble.
23
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Expected
Expected Return
Return
m
RP =  ( Wj )( Rj )
j=1

RP is the expected return for the portfolio,

Wj is the weight (investment proportion)
for the jth asset in the portfolio,
Rj is the expected return of the jth asset,
m is the total number of assets in the
24 portfolio.
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
m m
P = 
j=1 k=1
Wj Wk  jk

Wj is the weight (investment proportion)

for the jth asset in the portfolio,
Wk is the weight (investment proportion)
for the kth asset in the portfolio,
jk is the covariance between returns for
25 the jth and kth assets in the portfolio.
 What
What is
is Covariance?
Covariance?
jk = j k rjk
j is the standard deviation of the jth asset
in the portfolio,
k is the standard deviation of the kth
asset in the portfolio,
rjk is the correlation coefficient between the
26 jth and kth assets in the portfolio.
 Correlation
Correlation Coefficient
Coefficient
A standardized statistical measure
of the linear relationship between
two variables.

Its range is from -1.0 (perfect

negative correlation), through 0
(no correlation), to +1.0 (perfect
positive correlation).
27
 Variance
Variance -- Covariance
Covariance Matrix
Matrix

A three asset portfolio:

Col 1 Col 2 Col 3
Row 1 W1W11,1 W1W21,2 W1W31,3
Row 2 W2W12,1 W2W22,2 W2W32,3
Row 3 W3W13,1 W3W23,2 W3W33,3

j,k = is the covariance between returns for

28 the jth and kth assets in the portfolio.
 Portfolio
Portfolio Risk
Risk and
and
Expected
Expected Return
Return Example
Example
You are creating a portfolio of Stock D and Stock
BW (from earlier). You are investing $2,000 in
Stock BW and $3,000 in Stock D. D Remember that
the expected return and standard deviation of
Stock BW is 9% and 13.15% respectively. The
expected return and standard deviation of Stock D
is 8% and 10.65% respectively. The correlation
coefficient between BW and D is 0.75.
0.75
What is the expected return and standard
deviation of the portfolio?
29
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Expected
Expected Return
Return
WBW = $2,000 / $5,000 = .4
WD = $3,000 / $5,000 = .6

RP = (WBW)(RBW) + (WD)(RD)
RP = (.4)(9%) + (.6)(
.6 8%)
8%

30
RP = (3.6%) + (4.8%)
4.8% = 8.4%
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
Two-asset portfolio:
Col 1 Col 2
Row 1 WBW WBW BW,BW WBW WD BW,D
Row 2 WD WBW D,BW WD WD D,D

This represents the variance - covariance

31
matrix for the two-asset portfolio.
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
Two-asset portfolio:
Col 1 Col 2
Row 1 (.4)(.4)(.0173) (.4)(.6)(.0105)
Row 2 (.6)(.4)(.0105) (.6)(.6)(.0113)

This represents substitution into the

variance - covariance matrix.
32
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
Two-asset portfolio:
Col 1 Col 2
Row 1 (.0028) (.0025)
Row 2 (.0025) (.0041)

This represents the actual element values

33
in the variance - covariance matrix.
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation

P = .0028 + (2)(.0025) + .0041

P = SQRT(.0119)
P = .1091 or 10.91%

A weighted average of the individual

standard deviations is INCORRECT.
34
 Determining
Determining Portfolio
Portfolio
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
The WRONG way to calculate is a
weighted average like:
P = .4 (13.15%) + .6(10.65%)
P = 5.26 + 6.39 = 11.65%

10.91% = 11.65%
35 This is INCORRECT.
 Summary
Summary ofof the
the Portfolio
Portfolio
Return
Return and
and Risk
Risk Calculation
Calculation
Stock C Stock D Portfolio
Return 9.00% 8.00% 8.64%
Stand.
Dev. 13.15% 10.65% 10.91%
CV 1.46 1.33 1.26

The portfolio has the LOWEST coefficient

of variation due to diversification.
36
 Diversification
Diversification and
and the
the
Correlation
Correlation Coefficient
Coefficient
Combination
SECURITY E SECURITY F E and F
INVESTMENT RETURN

TIME TIME TIME

Combining securities that are not perfectly,

positively correlated reduces risk.
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 Total
Total Risk
Risk == Systematic
Systematic
Risk
Risk ++ Unsystematic
Unsystematic Risk
Risk
Total Risk = Systematic Risk +
Unsystematic Risk
Systematic Risk is the variability of return
on stocks or portfolios associated with
changes in return on the market as a whole.
Unsystematic Risk is the variability of return
on stocks or portfolios not explained by
general market movements. It is avoidable
through diversification.
38
 Total
Total Risk
Risk == Systematic
Systematic
Risk
Risk ++ Unsystematic
Unsystematic Risk
Risk
Factors such as changes in nation’s
STD DEV OF PORTFOLIO RETURN

economy, tax reform by the Congress,

or a change in the world situation.

Unsystematic risk
Total
Risk
Systematic risk

NUMBER OF SECURITIES IN THE PORTFOLIO

39
 Total
Total Risk
Risk == Systematic
Systematic
Risk
Risk ++ Unsystematic
Unsystematic Risk
Risk
Factors unique to a particular company
STD DEV OF PORTFOLIO RETURN

or industry. For example, the death of a

key executive or loss of a governmental
defense contract.

Unsystematic risk
Total
Risk
Systematic risk

NUMBER OF SECURITIES IN THE PORTFOLIO

40
 Capital
Capital Asset
Asset
Pricing
Pricing Model
Model (CAPM)
(CAPM)
CAPM is a model that describes the
relationship between risk and
expected (required) return; in this
model, a security’s expected
(required) return is the risk-free rate
plus a premium based on the
systematic risk of the security.
41
 CAPM
CAPM Assumptions
Assumptions
1. Capital markets are efficient.
2. Homogeneous investor expectations
over a given period.
3. Risk-free asset return is certain
(use short- to intermediate-term
Treasuries as a proxy).
4. Market portfolio contains only
systematic risk (use S&P 500 Index
or similar as a proxy).
42
 Characteristic
Characteristic Line
Line
Narrower spread
EXCESS RETURN is higher correlation
ON STOCK
Rise
Beta = Run

EXCESS RETURN
ON MARKET PORTFOLIO

Characteristic Line
43
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
Time Pd. Market My Stock
The Market
1 9.6% 12%
and My
2 -15.4% -5% Stock
3 26.7% 19% returns are
4 -.2% 3% “excess
5 20.9% 13% returns” and
6 28.3% 14% have the
7 -5.9% -9% riskless rate
8 3.3% -1% already
9 12.2% 12%
subtracted.
10 10.5% 10%
44
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
 Assume that the previous continuous
distribution problem represents the “excess
returns” of the market portfolio (it may still be
in your calculator data worksheet -- 2nd Data ).
 Enter the excess market returns as “X”
observations of: 9.6%, -15.4%, 26.7%, -0.2%,
20.9%, 28.3%, -5.9%, 3.3%, 12.2%, and 10.5%.
 Enter the excess stock returns as “Y” observations
of: 12%, -5%, 19%, 3%, 13%, 14%, -9%, -1%,
12%, and 10%.
45
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
 Let us examine again the statistical
results (Press 2nd and then Stat )
 The market expected return and standard
deviation is 9% and 13.32%. Your stock
expected return and standard deviation is
6.8% and 8.76%.
 The regression equation is Y=a+bX. Thus, our
characteristic line is Y = 1.4448 + 0.595 X and
indicates that our stock has a beta of 0.595.

46
 What
What is
is Beta?
Beta?
An index of systematic risk.
risk
It measures the sensitivity of a
stock’s returns to changes in
returns on the market portfolio.
The beta for a portfolio is simply a
weighted average of the individual
stock betas in the portfolio.
47
 Characteristic
Characteristic Lines
Lines
and
and Different
Different Betas
Betas
EXCESS RETURN Beta > 1
ON STOCK (aggressive)
Beta = 1
Each characteristic
line has a Beta < 1
different slope. (defensive)

EXCESS RETURN
ON MARKET PORTFOLIO

48
 Security
Security Market
Market Line
Line

Rj = Rf + j(RM - Rf)
Rj is the required rate of return for stock j,
Rf is the risk-free rate of return,
j is the beta of stock j (measures systematic
risk of stock j),
RM is the expected return for the market
49
portfolio.
 Security
Security Market
Market Line
Line

Rj = Rf + j(RM - Rf)
Required Return

RM Risk
Premium
Rf
Risk-free
Return
M = 1.0

50
Systematic Risk (Beta)
 Security
Security Market
Market Line
Line
 Obtaining Betas
 Can use historical data if past best represents the
expectations of the future
 Can also utilize services like Value Line, Ibbotson
Associates, etc.
 Adjusted Beta
 Betas have a tendency to revert to the mean of 1.0
 Can utilize combination of recent beta and mean
 2.22 (.7) + 1.00 (.3) = 1.554 + 0.300 = 1.854 estimate
51
 Determination
Determination of
of the
the
Required
Required Rate
Rate of
of Return
Return
Lisa Miller at Basket Wonders is
attempting to determine the rate of return
required by their stock investors. Lisa is
using a 6% Rf and a long-term market
expected rate of return of 10%.
10% A stock
analyst following the firm has calculated
that the firm beta is 1.2.
1.2 What is the
required rate of return on the stock of
52 Basket Wonders?
 BWs
BWs Required
Required
Rate
Rate of
of Return
Return

RBW = Rf + j(RM - Rf)

RBW = 6% + 1.2(
1.2 10% - 6%)
6%
RBW = 10.8%
The required rate of return exceeds
the market rate of return as BW’s
53 beta exceeds the market beta (1.0).
 Determination
Determination ofof the
the
Intrinsic
Intrinsic Value
Value of
of BW
BW
Lisa Miller at BW is also attempting to
determine the intrinsic value of the stock.
She is using the constant growth model.
Lisa estimates that the dividend next period
will be $0.50 and that BW will grow at a
constant rate of 5.8%.
5.8% The stock is currently
selling for $15.

What is the intrinsic value of the stock?

Is the stock over or underpriced?
underpriced
54
 Determination
Determination ofof the
the
Intrinsic
Intrinsic Value
Value of
of BW
BW
Intrinsic $0.50
=
Value 10.8% - 5.8%

= $10

The stock is OVERVALUED as

the market price ($15) exceeds
the intrinsic value ($10).
$10
55
 Security
Security Market
Market Line
Line
Stock X (Underpriced)
Required Return

Direction of
Movement Direction of
Movement

Rf Stock Y (Overpriced)

Systematic Risk (Beta)

56
 Determination
Determination of
of the
the
Required
Required Rate
Rate of
of Return
Return
Small-firm Effect
Price / Earnings Effect
January Effect

These anomalies have presented

serious challenges to the CAPM
theory.
57