Probability

Part I
Probability
is simply how likely an event is to happen.

Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event

occurring.

This module intends to discuss the concept of probability for discrete

sample spaces, its application, and ways of solving the probabilities of
different statistical data.
 1. Understand and describe sample spaces and
events for random experiments

Intended 2. Explain the concept of probability and its

Learning application to different situations

Outcomes
3. Define and illustrate the different probability
rules and solve for the probability of different
statistical data
 Probability
Probability
The probability of something which is certain to
happen is 1.
For example, the probability of
flipping a coin and it being
The probability of something which is impossible to
heads is ½, because there is 1
happen is 0.
way of getting a head and the
total number of possible
outcomes is 2 (a head or tail). The probability of something not happening is 1
We write P(heads) = ½ . minus the probability that it will happen.
Introduction
Experiment

Outcome

Sample Space

Event
 -is a process of investigation from which results are observed or
Experiment recorded.

Activities illustrating experiment

Tossing a coin Picking a card from a Rolling a die

standard deck of cards
 -is a process of investigation from which results are observed or
Experiment recorded.

Activities illustrating experiment

Choosing a ball Drawing a ball in a

from a box lottery
Outcome - possible result of an experiment

Tossing two coins Possible result

Head Head
Head Tail
Outcomes
Tail Head
Tail Tail
Outcome - possible result of an experiment

Rolling a die Possible result

1
2 Outcomes
3
 - it is the set of all possible outcomes for a probability
Sample Space experiment or activity . It is usually denoted by the letter S .

Tossing two coins Possible result

Head Head
Head Tail
Sample
Tail Head
Space
Tail Tail
 - it is the set of all possible outcomes for a probability
Sample Space experiment or activity . It is usually denoted by the letter S .

Rolling a die Possible result

Sample
1 2 3 4 5 6 Space
Event - is the subset of all outcomes or sample space of an experiment.

Rolling a die Possible result

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
E= {1,2}
{1} Event

{1,2,3}
Event - is the subset of all outcomes or sample space of an experiment.

Tossing two coins Possible result

S= { HH, HT, TH, TT }

{ HH }
{ HH, HT, TH } Event
{H H,HT,TT}
Activity
List the sample space for the following experiment

1. Getting an even number in a single 2. Picking odd number balls from a

roll of a die. box with 15 balls numbered 1-15.

S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}

S= {2,4,6}
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15}

S= {1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15}
2.1 Sample Space and Relationships among Events
Sample space is the set of all possible outcomes or results of a random experiment. Sample space
is represented by letter S. Each outcome in the sample space is called an element of that set. An
event is the subset of this sample space and it is represented by letter E. This can be illustrated in
a Venn Diagram.

In Figure 2.1, the sample space is represented by the rectangle and the events by the circles
inside the rectangle.

The events A and B

(in a to c) and A, B
and C (in d and e)
are all subsets of the
sample space S.

Figure 2.1 Venn diagrams of sample space with events

Operations with Events
I. Intersection of Events
Two events A and B intersect if there are elements
common to both A and B.

A∩B
S
A B
Sample Space
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6,7} 6 3
2
A= {1, 2, 5, 6}
1 5 4
B= {2, 3, 4, 5}
7
A∩B = {2,5}
Operations with Events
II. Mutually Exclusive Events
Null space – is a subset of the
We can say that an event is mutually exclusive if sample space that contains no
they have no elements in common. elements and is denoted by the
symbol ∅ . It is also called empty
Two events A and B cannot occur at the same time. space.

Where we can
see A∩B =∅
A. Learning Task/Seatwork
1. Find the intersection of events And B and draw a Venn Diagram in each item.

Sample Space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}

A = {2, 4, 6}
B= {6, 7, 8, 9}
S
A B
2 8
In notation A∩B = {6} 1 6 7
4
9
3 5
A. Learning Task/Seatwork
2. Find the intersection of events And B and draw a Venn Diagram in each item.
Sample Space = {sum of two dice}
A = { event that the even numbers turns up}
B = { event that the number turns up is greater than 7}

S= {2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12} S
A B
A = { 2,4,6,8,10,12}
2 8 11
B = { 8,9,10,11,12} 10
4 12
7 6 9
In notation A∩B = {8,10,12} 3 5
A. Learning Task/Seatwork
3. Find the intersection of events And B and draw a Venn Diagram in each item.

Sample Space = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15}

A = { event that the even numbers turns up}
B = { event that the number is divisible by 3}

S
A B
A = { 2,4,6,8,10,12,14} 13 10 3
2
B = { 3,6,9,12,15} 8 6 9
1
4 12
7 14 15
In notation A∩B = {6,12} 11 5
Operations with Events
III. Union of Events
The set by combining the elements of two events.

A∪ B S
A B
Sample Space
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6,7} 6 3
2
A= {1,2,5,6}
1 5 4
B= {2,3,4,5}
7
A∪B = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Operations with Events
IV. Complement of an Event
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the set of all
elements of S that are not in A and is denoted by A’.
Example: Consider the sample space S = {dog, cow, bird, snake,
pig}

Let A = {dog, bird, pig};

then A’ = {cow, snake}

 B. Learning Task/Seatwork
1. Find the union of events And B and draw a Venn Diagram in each item.
Sample Space = {grades from 85 to 98}
A = { event that a grade is an even number }
B = { event that a grade is greater than 90 }

S = { 85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98} S
A B
A = { 86, 88, 90, 92, 94, 96, 98} 86 91
92
B = { 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98} 85 94 93
88
96 95
87 98
90 97
A∪B = {86, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98} 89
 B. Learning Task/Seatwork
2. Find the union of events And B and draw a Venn Diagram in each item.
Sample Space = {counting numbers less than 16 }
A = { event that a number is an odd number }
B = { event that the number is divisible by 3 }

S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15} S
A B
A = { 1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15} 1
3
B = { 3,6,9,12,15} 2
9 6
7
4 15
11
5 13 12
8
A∪B = {1,3,5,6,7,9,11,12,13,15} 10
14
1. From the adjoining figure list the elements of the following sets:

(a) ξ {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j}

(b) A' {d, e, f, g, h, i, j}

(c) B' {a, b, g, h, i, j}

(d) (A ∩ B)' {a, b, d, e, f, g, h, i, j}

(e) (A ∪ B)' {g, h, i, j}

(f) A' ∪ B' {a, b, d, e, f, g, h, i, j}

2. Let A = {1, 2, 3, 5, 6}, B = {3, 4, 6, 8} be two subsets of the universal set
ξ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8},
Draw Venn diagrams to represent the following sets:

(a) A' (b) B' (c) A ∪ B

A’ = {4, 7, 8} B’ = {1, 2, 5, 7} A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8}

(d) A ∩ B (e) (A ∪ B)' (f) (A ∩ B)'

A ∩ B = {3, 6} (A ∪ B)’ = {7} (A ∩ B)’ = {1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8}

What do the shaded regions in the following
represent?

B-A A∪B A-B

A∩B=∅
(A ∩ B) ∪ (B ∩ C) B–A=∅

A∩B
A∩B A∩B∩C
Use the adjoining figure to find the following sets:
(a) A ∪ B {a, b, c, d, j, k}

(b) B ∩ C ∅

(c) C - A {h, i, q}

(d) A - B {a, b, c}

(e) (B - C) ∪ A {a, b, c, d, j, k}

(f) (C ∩ B) ∪ A {a, b, c, d}

(g) (A ∪ B) ∩ C ∅

(h) (B ∪ C)' {a, b, c, p, l, m, n}

(i) (A ∪ B) - C {a, b, c, d, j, k}

(j) (B - A)' {a, b, c, d, h, i, p, q, l, m, n}

- END -
Probability
Part II
Probability of an Event https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AupaM6XxU6o

Sample space and events play important roles in probability. Once we have sample space
and event, we can easily find the probability of that event. We have following formula to
find the probability of an event.

Probability of an event

P (E) or P (E)

Where,
n (S) represents number of elements in a sample space of an experiment;
n (E) represents a number of elements in the event set; and
P (E) represents the probability of an event.
 P (E)

P (E)

𝟏 𝟑 𝟏
Fraction
𝟐 𝟒 𝟒

Decimal 0.5 0.75 0.25 1

Percentage 50 % 75 % 25 % 100 %
Examples: P (E)

1. A die is rolled once . Find the probability of obtaining or getting a 5.

N (S) = 1
P (E) = or 0.167 or 16.7%
N (E) = 6

2. A die is rolled once . Find the probability of obtaining or getting a 3.

N (S) = 1 P (E) =
N (E) = 6 or 0.167 or 16.7%
Examples: P (E)

3. What is the probability of getting an even number in the experiment of rolling a

die?

1 2 3 4 5 6 N (S) = 3
N (E) = 6

P (E) = = or 0.5 or 50%

Examples: P (E)

4. In tossing two dice , what is the probability of the event : sum of 5?

1 2 3 4 5 6 {4,1} {1,4} {2,3} {3,2}

1 2 3 4 5 6 N (S) = 4
6 x 6 = 36 N (E) = 36

1 2 3 4 5 6
P (E) = =
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2 4 6 8 10 12
3 3 6 9 12 15 18
4 4 8 12 16 20 24
5 5 10 15 20 25 30
6 6 12 18 24 30 36
5. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of cards. Find the probability of
drawing:

a.) a KING b.) a HEART c.) a FACE CARD d.) not a KING

N (S) = 4
N (E) = 52

P (E) = =
5. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of cards. Find the probability of
drawing:

a.) a KING b.) a HEART c.) a FACE CARD d.) not a KING

N (S) = 13
N (E) = 52

P (E) = =
5. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of cards. Find the probability of
drawing:

a.) a KING b.) a HEART c.) a FACE CARD d.) not a KING

N (S) = 12
N (E) = 52

P (E) = =
5. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of cards. Find the probability of
drawing:

a.) a KING b.) a HEART c.) a FACE CARD d.) not a KING

N (S) = 48
N (E) = 52

P (E) = =
6. A committee of two/ pair is to be chosen at random from a group of 5 students
consisting of 3 boys and 2 girls. What is the probability that a committee;

a.) of two boys will be chosen?

b.) of two girls will be chosen?
c.) consisting of 1 boy and 1 girl will be chosen?

B1 , B2 , B3 G1 , G2

B1B2, B1B3, B1G1,B1G2,B2B3,B2G1,B2G2,B3G1,B3G2,G1G2

 B1B2, B1B3, B1G1,B1G2,B2B3,B2G1,B2G2,B3G1,B3G2,G1G2

a.) of two boys will be b.) of two girls will be c.) consisting of 1 boy and
chosen? chosen? 1 girl will be chosen?

N (S) = 3 N (S) = 1 N (S) = 6

N (E) = 10 N (E) = 10 N (E) = 10

P (E) = P (E) = P (E) = =

2.2 Counting Rules Useful in Probability
Permutation Rule
The arrangement of elements in a distinct order is Counting without
called permutation. Given a single set of n replacement
distinctively different elements, you wish to select k
elements from the n and arrange them within k Order matters!
positions. The number of different permutations of
the n elements taken k at a time is denoted Pkn and Pick ‘r’ of
is equal to 𝑃𝑘𝑛=𝑛!/(𝑛−𝑘)!
those objects

P = permutation
n = total number of objects
r = number of objects selected n object to
choose from
 Suppose 10 horses run a race; how many different ways could 1 st place , 2nd place and 3rd
place occur?

Does order matters? YES!!!

Permutation

10P3 = 10 9 8 = 720
10P3 =

10P3 =

Answer 10P3 = 720

 Suppose there is a class of 20 students and election are being made for class president and
class vice president. How many different ways could the candidates be picked?

Does order matters? YES!!!

Permutation

20P2 = 20 19 = 380
20P2 =

20P2 =

Answer 20P2 = 380

Combinations Rule

A sample of k elements is to be chosen from a Counting without

set of n elements. The number of different replacement
samples of k samples that can be selected Order does not
from n is equal to matters!

Where:
The total number
•n – the total number of elements in a set
of combinations of
•k – the number of selected objects (the order of the
‘n objects’ taken
objects is not important)
‘r’ at a time.
•! – factorial
 Suppose 10 horses run a race; you would like to know in how many ways 3 horses can
finish in first,second,third in any order?

Does order matters? NO!!!

Combination

10C3 =

10C3 =

10C3 =

Answer 10C3 = 120

 On a test, a student must select 6 out of 10 questions. In how many ways can this be
done?

Does order matters? NO!!!

Combination

10C6 =

10C6 =

10C6 =

Answer 10C6 = 210

A hat with 3 marbles A, B and C and you just wanna find out how many ways are they
if you have to pick two marbles out of the three at random and how many ways if you
wanna pick two?

Permutation Combination

1 AB 1
2 BA
3P2 = AC 3C2 =
3 2
4 CA
3P2 = 5 BC 3C2 =
3
6 CB
3P2 = 3! 3C2 =
3P2 = 6
3C2 =
1. How many ways can you arrange all the letters in the
word “MATH”?

FCP 4 3 2 1 = 24

Permutation

4P4 =

4P4 =

4P4 = 4!
 2. In how many ways can you arrange 2 of the letters in
the word “MATH”?

FCP 4 3 = 12
Permutation

4P2 =

4P2 =

4P2 =

4P2 = 12
 3. Eight runners are running a race . In how many ways
can a gold, silver, bronze medal be awarded?

FCP 8 7 6 = 336

Permutation

8P3 =

8P3 =

8P3 =

8P3 = 336
 4. Twenty basketball players form teams of 5 players.
Each player can play any position. How many teams of 5
can be formed?

Combination

20C5 =

20C5 =

20C5 = 15,504 teams of 5 can be formed

- END -
Probability
Part III
 2.3 Rules of Probability
Before discussing the rules of probability, we state the following definitions:

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they The probability that Events A or B occur is the
cannot occur at the same time. probability of the union of A and B. The probability
of the union of Events A and B is denoted by P(A ∪
The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B B).
has occurred, is called a conditional probability. The
conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is If the occurrence of Event A changes the
denoted by the symbol P (A|B). probability of Event B, then Events A and B are
dependent. On the other hand, if the occurrence of
The complement of an event is the event not occurring. Event A does not change the probability of Event
The probability that Event A will not occur is denoted by B, then Events A and B are independent.
P (A').

The probability that Events A and B both occur is the

probability of the intersection of A and B. The
probability of the intersection of Events A and B is
denoted by P (A ∩ B). If Events A and B are mutually
exclusive, P(A ∩ B) = 0.
Rule of Addition

Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵) A and B cannot both occur

S A B

The probability of A U B
is that A occur or B occur
or A and B occur
Example:
What is the probability of a standard die roll being 1 or 6?

A: die roll is 1 𝑃(𝐴)=

B: die roll is 6 𝑃(B)=

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)
+𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)= +

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)=
Rule 2: If events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )=𝑃 (𝐴 )+𝑃 (𝐵 )−𝑃 (𝐴

∩ 𝐵)

S A B
What is the probability of a standard die roll being even or prime?

E: die roll is even 𝑃(E)=

die roll is prime 𝑃(P)=

P:
For a number to be called as a
prime number, it must have
only two positive factors.
𝑃(E ∪ P)=𝑃 (E)+𝑃 (P) −𝑃 (E ∩ P) Now, for 1, the number of
positive divisors or factors is
𝑃(E ∪ P)= + - only one i.e. 1 itself.
So, number one is not a
prime number.
𝑃(E ∪ P)=
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out a work of fiction is 0.40,
a work of non-fiction is 0.30, and both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20. What is the
probability that the student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?

Solution:
Let F = the event that the student checks out fiction;
Let N = the event that the student checks out non-fiction.

Then, based on the rule of addition:

𝑃(F ∪ N)=𝑃 (𝐹 )+𝑃 (𝑁 )−𝑃 (𝐹 ∩ 𝑁 )

𝑃(F ∪ N)= 0.4+0.3−0.2=𝟎 .𝟓

Rule of Multiplication
Rule 1: When two events A and B are independent, then: 𝑃( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= 𝑃( 𝐴) 𝑃( 𝐵)

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is: 𝑃( 𝐴 ∩
𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

*Dependent - Two outcomes are said to be dependent if knowing that one of the outcomes has
occurred affects the probability that the other occurs
*Conditional Probability - an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B
occurs after event A has already occurred. The probability is denoted by 𝑃( 𝐵| 𝐴).
Two coins are flipped. What is the probability they both land heads up?

A: 1st coin lands head up 𝑃(A)=

B: 2nd coin lands head up 𝑃(B)=

𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) The occurrence of one

event doesn’t affect the
𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)= x = probability of the other
event.

Rule 1: When two events A and B are independent,

then: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
Note: but not all events
are independent.
Two cards are drawn from a standard 52-card deck without replacement. What is the
probability that both cards are red?

A: 1st card is red 𝑃(A)= The probabaility of B can’t just be 26/52

B: 2nd card is red 𝑃(B)≠ Why? Because there are no longer 52 cards in the
deck of cards, so as the 1st card has already drawn
without replacement(which means it would not put
back in). So there are 51 cards in the deck but we
𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵| didn’t know if the red cards were still 26, because we
A) might say that the first card drawn was red which
means we can also have 25 red cards in the deck.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)= x = 24.5 %
Probability of B in
𝑃(B| A)= the condition that
A has already
occurred.
An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement
from the urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?

Solution:
Let A = the event that the first marble is black;
and let B = the event that the second marble is black.

We know the following:

* In the beginning, there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black. Therefore, P (A) = 4/10.
* After the first selection, there are 9 marbles in the urn, 3 of which are black. Therefore, P (B|A) = 3/9.
Two cards are selected from a pack of cards. What is the probability that they are both queen?

Solution:
Let A = First card which is a queen
Let B = Second card which is also a queen
We require P (A ∩ B). Notice that these events are dependent because the probability that the
second card is a queen depends on whether or not the first card is a queen.

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B|A)
P (A) = 1/13 and P (B|A) = 3/51
P (A ∩ B) = (1/13) (3/51) = 1/221 = 0.004525
Rule of Subtraction
Calculating probability “ atleast one” scenarios

𝑃(𝐴)+ 𝑃(𝐴′) =1
𝑃(𝐴)=1−𝑃(𝐴′)

The probability that event A will occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that event A
will not occur. 𝑃(𝐴)=1−𝑃(𝐴′)

Example 1.The probability of Bill not graduating in college is 0.8. What is the probability
that Bill will graduate from college?

Solution: 𝑃(𝐴)=1−0.8=𝟎.𝟐
REFERENCES:
Montgomery, D. C. et al. (2003). Applied Statistics and
Probability for Engineers 3rd Edition. USA. John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.
Walpole, R. E. et al. (2016). Probability & Statistics for Engineers
& Scientists 9th Edition. England. Pearson Education Limited
https://math.tutorvista.com/statistics/sample-space-and-
events.html
https://stattrek.com/probability/probability-rules.aspx
https://www.ck12.org/book/CK-12-Probability-and-Statistics-
Advanced-Second-Edition/section/3.6/
- END -