Operation Management

Forecasting
Capacity Planning

Prepared By
Tamer Mohamed Soliman
Amir Anwar Noshi
Islam Nabil
USN Forecasting Linear trend
• USN-KPIs
• First we have USN Nodes working for Access subscribers
• Secondly USNs have capacity per 2 major KPIs USN_KPI_1 and USN_KPI_2
• Need to calculate end next year forecast to determine the capacity plan for
each KPI
Date Month usn_KPI_1 usn_KPI_2 usn_KPI_1 usn_KPI_2
Jan-23 1 16.9 16.6 18.5 12.0
Feb-23 2 17.4 17.0
10.0
Mar-23 3 17.6 17.3 18.0
Apr-23 4 17.7 17.4 8.0
May-23 5 17.7 17.9 17.5
6.0
Jun-23 6 17.9 18.2
17.0 4.0
Jul-23 7 18.3 18.3
Aug-23 8 18.2 18.4 16.5 2.0
Sep-23 9 18.3 18.7
0.0
Oct-23 10 18.4 18.9 16.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
USN Forecasting Linear trend
USN_KPI_1
1- Calculate b and a year
2023
Month (t)
1
usn_KPI_1 (y)
16.9
t2
1
Y2
287.2
ty
16.9
2023 2 17.4 4 301.8 34.7
2023 3 17.6 9 311.1 52.9
2023 4 17.7 16 312.4 70.7
2023 5 17.7 25 314.4 88.7
2023 6 17.9 36 321.8 107.6
2023 7 18.3 49 334.9 128.1
2023 8 18.2 64 330.8 145.5
2023 9 18.3 81 335.3 164.8
2023 10 18.4 100 337.7 183.8
Sum 55 178.474442 385 3187.3 993.7

b 0.147107552
a 17.03835267
USN Forecasting Linear trend
year Month (t) usn_KPI_1 (y)

USN_KPI_1 2023
2023
1
2
16.9
17.4
2023 3 17.6

2- Calculate y: 2023
2023
4
5
17.7
17.7
2023 6 17.9
Y=b+at usn_KPI_1 (y)
2023
2023
7
8
18.3
18.2
25.0 2023 9 18.3
2023 10 18.4
2023 11 18.66
20.0
2023 12 18.80
2024 13 18.95
15.0 2024 14 19.10
2024 15 19.24
10.0 2024 16 19.39
2024 17 19.54
5.0 2024 18 19.69
2024 19 19.83
2024 20 19.98
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2024 21 20.13
2024 22 20.27
2024 23 20.42
2024 24 20.57
End of 2024 forcasting 21
USN Forecasting Linear trend
USN_KPI_2
year Month (t) usn_KPI_2 (y) t2 Y2 ty
1- Calculate b and a 2023
2023
1
2
16.6
17.0
1
4
275.4
288.3
16.6
34.0
2023 3 17.3 9 298.7 51.9
2023 4 17.4 16 303.7 69.7
2023 5 17.9 25 319.2 89.3
2023 6 18.2 36 331.9 109.3
2023 7 18.3 49 336.2 128.4
2023 8 18.4 64 338.3 147.1
2023 9 18.7 81 349.9 168.4
2023 10 18.9 100 355.6 188.6
Sum 55 178.663068 385 3197.3 1003.2

b 0.248890376
a 16.49740973
USN Forecasting Linear trend
year Month (t) usn_KPI_2 (y)
2023 1 16.6

USN_KPI_2 2023
2023
2
3
17.0
17.3
2023 4 17.4

2- Calculate y: 2023
2023
5
6
17.9
18.2
2023 7 18.3

Y=b+at 2023
2023
8
9
18.4
18.7
2023 10 18.9
2023 11 19.24
usn_KPI_2 (y) 2023 12 19.48
25.0 2024 13 19.73
2024 14 19.98
2024 15 20.23
20.0
2024 16 20.48
2024 17 20.73
15.0
2024 18 20.98
2024 19 21.23
10.0 2024 20 21.48
2024 21 21.72
5.0 2024 22 21.97
2024 23 22.22
2024 24 22.47
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 End of 2024 forcasting 22
 GWs Forecasting Linear trend
• GWs-KPIs
• First we have GWs Nodes working for data plan of subscribers
• Secondly GWs have capacity per 3 major KPIs GW_KPI_1 & GW_KPI_2 &
GW_KPI_3
• Need to calculate end next year forecast to determine the capacity plan for
each KPI
Date Month GW_KPI_1 GW_KPI_2 Node Type GW_KPI_3
Jan-23 1 16.5 4.1 CGW 15.0 GW_KPI_1
GW_KPI_2
Feb-23 2 17.1 4.9 CGW 14.8 19.5
Mar-23 3 17.4 4.2 CGW 15.2 19.0 6.0 GW_KPI_3
Apr-23 4 17.5 4.7 CGW 15.5 18.5 5.0 17.0
18.0 4.0 16.0
May-23 5 18.0 4.7 CGW 15.9
17.5
Jun-23 6 18.4 5.2 CGW 16.0 3.0 15.0
17.0
Jul-23 7 18.5 4.6 CGW 15.9 16.5 2.0 14.0
16.0 1.0 13.0
Aug-23 8 18.5 4.8 CGW 16.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
15.5
Sep-23 9 18.9 5.5 CGW 16.4 0.0
15.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Oct-23 10 19.0 5.0 CGW 16.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
GW Forecasting Linear trend
GW_KPI_1
1- Calculate b and a year Month (t) GW_KPI_1 (y) t2 Y2 ty
2023 1 16.5 1 272.4 16.5
2023 2 17.1 4 292.8 34.2
2023 3 17.4 9 302.6 52.2
2023 4 17.5 16 307.2 70.1
2023 5 18.0 25 323.2 89.9
2023 6 18.4 36 336.9 110.1
2023 7 18.5 49 340.8 129.2
2023 8 18.5 64 343.4 148.2
2023 9 18.9 81 355.7 169.7
2023 10 19.0 100 361.7 190.2
Sum 55 179.738866 385 3236.6 1010.4

b 0.264913273
a 16.5168636
GW Forecasting Linear trend
year Month (t) GW_KPI_1 (y)

GW_KPI_1 2023 1 16.5

2023 2 17.1
2023 3 17.4

2- Calculate y: 2023 4 17.5

2023 5 18.0
2023 6 18.4

Y=b+at 2023 7 18.5

2023 8 18.5
2023 9 18.9
2023 10 19.0
GW_KPI_1 (y)
2023 11 19.43
25.0 2023 12 19.70
2024 13 19.96
20.0 2024 14 20.23
2024 15 20.49
2024 16 20.76
15.0 2024 17 21.02
2024 18 21.29
10.0 2024 19 21.55
2024 20 21.82
2024 21 22.08
5.0 2024 22 22.34
2024 23 22.61
0.0 2024 24 22.87
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2024 forcasting 23
GW Forecasting Linear trend
GW_KPI_2
year Month (t) GW_KPI_2 (y) t2 Y2 ty
1- Calculate b and a 2023
2023
1
2
4.1
4.9
1
4
17.1
23.9
4.1
9.8
2023 3 4.2 9 18.0 12.7
2023 4 4.7 16 21.7 18.6
2023 5 4.7 25 21.9 23.4
2023 6 5.2 36 26.7 31.0
2023 7 4.6 49 21.1 32.1
2023 8 4.8 64 23.0 38.3
2023 9 5.5 81 30.8 49.9
2023 10 5.0 100 24.6 49.6
Sum 55 47.658 385 228.7 269.6

b 0.090774545
a 4.26654
GW Forecasting Linear trend
year Month (t) GW_KPI_2 (y)
2023 1 4.1
GW_KPI_2 2023
2023
2
3
4.9
4.2
2023 4 4.7
2- Calculate y: 2023
2023
5
6
4.7
5.2
2023 7 4.6

Y=b+at 2023
2023
8
9
4.8
5.5
2023 10 5.0
GW_KPI_2 (y) 2023 11 5.27
2023 12 5.36
7.0 2024 13 5.45
2024 14 5.54
6.0
2024 15 5.63
5.0 2024 16 5.72
2024 17 5.81
4.0 2024 18 5.90
2024 19 5.99
3.0 2024 20 6.08
2024 21 6.17
2.0
2024 22 6.26
1.0 2024 23 6.35
2024 24 6.45
0.0 2024 forcasting 7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
GW Forecasting Linear trend
GW_KPI_3 year Month (t) GW_KPI_2 (y) t2 Y2 ty
2023 1 15.0 1 224.5 15.0
1- Calculate b and a 2023 2
2023 3
14.8
15.2
4
9
219.9
230.9
29.7
45.6
2023 4 15.5 16 239.5 61.9
2023 5 15.9 25 252.2 79.4
2023 6 16.0 36 255.5 95.9
2023 7 15.9 49 254.1 111.6
2023 8 16.0 64 254.8 127.7
2023 9 16.4 81 269.3 147.7
2023 10 16.6 100 275.7 166.1
Sum 55 157.268957 385 2476.5 880.5

b 0.187736588
a 14.69434447
GW Forecasting Linear trend
year Month (t) GW_KPI_3 (y)
2023 1 15.0

GW_KPI_3
2023 2 14.8
2023 3 15.2
2023 4 15.5

2- Calculate y:
2023 5 15.9
2023 6 16.0
2023 7 15.9

Y=b+at
2023 8 16.0
2023 9 16.4
2023 10 16.6
2023 11 16.76
GW_KPI_3 (y) 2023 12 16.95
2024 13 17.13
25.0
2024 14 17.32
2024 15 17.51
20.0 2024 16 17.70
2024 17 17.89
2024 18 18.07
15.0
2024 19 18.26
2024 20 18.45
10.0 2024 21 18.64
2024 22 18.82
5.0
2024 23 19.01
2024 24 19.20
2024 forcasting 19
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Capacity Planning
• USN & GWs Capacity Planning

Utilization = Actual Output / Design Capacity

Efficiency = Actual Output / Effective Capacity
year capacity usn_KPI_1 usn_KPI_2 GW_KPI_1 GW_KPI_2 GW_KPI_3
Design capacity 30.0 30.0 30.0 10.0 30.0
2023 Effective capacity 27.9 28.8 28.9 7.7 25.9
Actual capacity 18.6 19.2 19.3 5.2 17.3
Utilization 62 64 64 52 58
Efficiency 67 67 67 67 67
Subscribers Forecasting Linear trend
Subscribers
1- Calculate b and a
year year t GW_KPI_2 (y) t2 Y2 ty
2020 1 5597.0 1 31326409.0 5597.0
2021 2 22834.0 4 521391556.0 45668.0
2022 3 48710.0 9 2372664100.0 146130.0
Sum 6 77141 14 2925382065.0 197395.0

Subscribers (y)
60000.0
50000.0
b 21556.5 40000.0
a -17399.3 30000.0
20000.0
10000.0
0.0
2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 2022 2022.5
Subscribers Forecasting Linear trend
Subscribers
year year t Subscribers (y)

2- Calculate y: 2020
2021
1
2
5597.0
22834.0
2022 3 48710.0

Y=b+at 2024
2024
4 68826.67
68827
forcasting

Subscribers (y)
80000.0

70000.0

60000.0

50000.0

40000.0

30000.0

20000.0

10000.0

0.0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
THANK YOU