MSC Project Thesis Presentation

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ARUDO E.

OKARA

Decentralised Rural Electrification of Health Care, Water


Supply, Education and Productive Services:

Selection of Small-Scale Distributed Electricity


Generation Technology Options for Rural Health Centres,
Water Pumping and Schools in Africa’s Great Lakes
Region
AIM
To evaluate the decentralised rural electrification
capability and economic viability of distributed
renewable energy generation technology options in
supplying electricity to remote rural communities in
Africa’s Great Lakes region in Sub-Saharan Africa.
OBJECTIVES
 To quantify distributed energy generation resources
potential in Africa’s Great Lakes region.
 To compare small-scale distributed renewable energy
generation technology options and competing choices, i.e.
distributed renewables versus distributed fossil fuels
generation options (diesel generator)
 To determine the cost-effectiveness of different renewable
energy generation technology options by calculating the
energy systems life-cycle cost.
 To select the appropriate renewable energy generation
technology solutions in comparison to fossil fuel generation
systems (diesel generator) for rural community services and
communal centres.
AFRICA’S GREAT LAKES REGION POLITICAL MAP
PROJECT BACKGROUND DETAILS
 In Great Lakes region overwhelming majority
(85% of 120 million) people live in rural areas.
 Currently less than 12% of the total population –
and less than 3% of the rural population has
access to grid electricity.
 Great Lakes region currently has the lowest per
capita electricity consumption in the world,
44kWh/year.
 Less than 5% of the health centres, clinics and
schools in rural areas have access to grid
electricity or sufficient alternative power supply
to meet their needs.
PROJECT BACKGROUND
DETAILS – cont…
 World Heath Organization (WHO) estimates that
about 120,000 deaths occur every year in the
Great Lakes region caused by unsafe water
supply ,sanitation and hygiene.

 Health clinics, health centers and water supply


facilities provide essential primary health care
services to millions of people.

 Most of these facilities are un-electrified.

 This seriously limits their effectiveness and their


ability to deliver health services and medicine.
PREVIOUS WORK DONE ON THE TOPIC
 Several studies show that some renewables can
be economically favourable over diesel generators
for community services in the developing world. In
India small wind systems were found to be less
expensive than diesel generator systems.
(Hammad,1995).

 Around 150,000 solar PV and wind turbine


systems have been used for health clinics, water
treatment and supply and other community centre
facilities world wide. (World Bank, 2004).
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY POTENTIAL
RESOURCES
Petroleum
Recently discovered in Tanzania &Uganda

Natural Gas
Available in Rwanda &Tanzania. Rwanda has 55-70
billion cubic metres.

Solar Energy
Location Mean Insolation

Kenya 5.0-5.8kWh/m2/day
Uganda 4.0-5.5kWh/m2/day
Tanzania 4.5-8.0kWh/m2/day
Rwanda 4.0-5.15kWh/m2/day
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY
POTENTIAL RESOURCES-cont---
Wind Energy
Location Mean wind speed
Kenya 3.0m/s-5.0m/s
Uganda 3.0-4.0m/s
Tanzania 2.5m/s-4.0m/s
Rwanda 3.0-4.0 m/s

Hydro-Energy.
Location Estimated Installed

Kenya 28,08 MW 2,808 MW


Uganda 500 MW 16.24 MW
Tanzani 4700 kW 300 MW
a
Rwanda Identified333- 1 MW
sites
Solar Insolation Radiation in Africa
SMALL-SCALE DISTRIBUTED ELECTRICITY
GENERATION TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS
Fuel Cell Microturbine Micro- Photovoltaic Wind IC Engine
hydro system

Fuel Natural Multiple Gas Water Sun Wind Diesel


Gas
Efficiency, % 40-60 27-32 50-70 6-19 25 15- 25
Rated Seize 1 -250W 0.5-30kW 1-100kW 50-300W >300W >500W

Capital Cost 3000-4000 700-900 1500-2000 4000-6000 1000-1500 400-600


($/kW)
O&M Cost 0.0017 0.005 0.001 0.001-0.004 0.01 0.01
($/kW)
Electricity cost 0.06-0.08 0.06-0.08 0.09-0.015 0.18-0.20 0.03-0.04 0.07-0.09
($/kW)
Energy Storage No No No Yes Yes No/Yes
Nox (lb/BTU) -Oil None 0.17 N/A N/A N/A 3.7

Expected Life (10,000- 40,000 Hrs 20-30 Yrs 20-25 Yrs 20-30 Yrs 40,000 Hrs
40,000)Hrs
Technology Emerging Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commerci
status al
Rural Suitability No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Comparison of Decentralised Electricity
Generation Systems
Energy Advantages Disadvantages
Solution
Solar PV -Relatively simple in design with no moving parts and very -Expensive to compete with other sources
Systems low maintenance, of energy except for applications requiring
-Unattended operation small amounts of power
-Low recurrent costs -High capital cost of PV system,
-Easy to install, increase capacity of system and run -Repairs often need skilled technicians
-Little maintenance needed - PV Panels susceptible to damage
-Lots of SHS available resource in the Great Lakes region -Requires batteries
-No fuel and virtually clean -Inverters for AC are quite expensive
-Long component lifetime and reliable -Low output in cloudy weather, however,
-Systems is modular, can be matched closely to need storage batteries
-Does not require a large scale installation to operate
-Very suited for small loads
Small Wind -Unattended operation -High system design and project planning
Systems -long life needs
-Low recurrent costs -Available only when the wind bellows.
-Easy, but regular maintenance. Less maintenance intensive -Seasonal disadvantage
than diesel generator set. -Batteries needs continuous supply
-Suited to local small scale industries -Site needs to be chosen carefully
-No fuel requirement -Can be noisy/visually unattractive
Micro-Hydro -Local manufacture is possible -Require specific site conditions; hilly
System -If enough water can be produced electricity 24 hours a day with year-around water source.
-Automatic, continuous operation requires no supervision -No enough water in dry season
-Low recurrent costs -Needs well maintenance & operated
-High reliability -Need to take into account other needs for
-Long life, high reliability water (i.e. irrigation)
-Need base load to justify cost
-Minimal environmental impacts
-Easy to design system -Fuel supplies erratic and expensive
Diesel -Quick easy to install, but regular maintenance. -High recurrent and maintenance costs
Generator Set -Moderate capital cost -Short life expectancy
-Reliable and portable - Noise, dirt and fume problem (pollution)
-Can be combined with other systems (i.e. hybrid systems)
Conventional -Very efficient at 90% much superior to wind, solar & gensets -High investment costs for off-grid sites
Hydro-Grid -clean, renewable, reliable and fairly cheap source of energy -Construction of large reservoir required
System -Low operation and maintenance costs -Dam facilities disrupt river flows, alters
riverside habitats and is an obstacle to fish
migration.
METHODOLOGY
 The most complete approach used in this study
is the Life Cycle Cost.

 For each energy system on which we are going


to perform a life cycle cost analysis, we need to
identify all the initial and future costs namely:
 Initial capital costs,
 Installation,
 Operation and maintenance over whole
lifetime,
 Fuel (only for diesels) over whole lifetime,
 Replacement of components during lifetime.
Methodology of Life-Cycle Costing Analysis
 It is used for calculating the least cost method of achieving a
particular objective, in this case a quantity of electricity generated.
 The inputs and outputs of the methodology are illustrated in
Figure 1, overleaf. Information or assumptions are required to put
numbers to:
-System performance: the output of the system depending on
the natural resource available.
-Cost data: the up-front and future expenditure required.
-Economic parameters: the factors which dictate how the future
costs can be expressed in today’s money.
 These are combined mathematically to give economic indicators
which summarise the cost-effectiveness of the system under
consideration.
Life-Cycle Costing and Discounting
 In a life-cycle costing, the initial costs and all future costs
for the entire operational life of a system are considered.
.
 To make a meaningful comparison, all future costs and
benefits have to be discounted to their equivalent value
in today’s economy, called their present worth or PW.

 To achieve this, each future cost is multiplied by the a


discount factor calculated from the discount rate.

 All calculations were done relative to general inflation, so


that all costs are expressed in today’s money.

 Levelised energy (LEC) cost was used as the most useful


figure for comparing energy technology options.
Life-Cycle Costing: Outline
Methodology
INPUTS

PERFOMANCE DATA COST DATA ECONOMIC PARAMETERS


System specification •Capital cost •Period of analysis
•Hardware
Performance estimate •Discount rate
•Design overheads
•Installation •Inflation
•Net useful energy production (or •Operation & maintenance cost
other output) per year
•Component replacement cost
and timescale

•Salvage values

OUTPUT
ECONOMIC INDICATORS

•Life-cycle project cost

•Annualised project cost

•Levelised unit cost of energy


(or other output)
TEST RESULTS
Economic Analysis for Renewable Energy Systems

Energy Options Life-Cycle Costs


Wind energy UGShs. 74,016,572
Solar energy UGShs. 101,320,082
Micro-hydro energy UGShs. 66,721,636
Diesel energy UGShs.104,586
Grid with extsn UGSh. 84,404,682
Grid without extsn UGShs.20,404,682
TEST RESULTS- cont---
LifeCycle cost/W

120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000
Costs UGX\W

LifeCycle
60,000,000
cost\W

40,000,000

20,000,000

0
Wind Solar Grid with Grid Micro- Diesel
energy energy extension without hydro energy
extension
Energy systems
CONCLUSIONS
A number of renewable energy options were proposed, for
powering rural community facilities and communal centres
namely:
 Grid extension
 Solar energy
 Wind energy
 Geothermal energy
 Biomass energy
 Micro-hydro energy

Geothermal energy and biomass were found unsuitable as


energy generation system for the GLR rural community services.
CONCLUSIONS
 The economic viability of renewable energy systems were considered by
calculating levelised energy costs and were found to be in the following
order:
 Grid without extension (UGShs. 2,040/W),
 Wind energy system (UGShs 7,402/W),
 Grid with extension (UGShs. 8,440/W),
 Micro-hydro system (UGShs. 6,672/) and
 finally the solar energy option at (UGShs 10,132/W).

 The life cycle cost of a competing diesel generator system in this instance
was calculated as UGShs 104,586/W.

 With reasonable assumptions concerning discount rates, capacity factors,


and fuel costs, the grid without extension and wind turbines have the lowest
life cycle costs in locations where the resource is sufficient.

 A limitation to the grid system is its coverage that does not extend into most
rural areas there by calling for decentralised distributed solutions.
END OF PRESENTATION
Thank you ladies and
gentlemen for your attention.

Questions ???

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