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Probability

The document discusses probability theory and its origins in gambling. It provides examples of experiments with known possible outcomes but uncertain results, like coin tosses, roulette wheels, and ruler measurements. These experiments share features of having known possible outcomes in advance but uncertainty about the specific outcome for each performance, and the ability to repeat the experiment under identical conditions.

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jayr domnigo
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28 views20 pages

Probability

The document discusses probability theory and its origins in gambling. It provides examples of experiments with known possible outcomes but uncertain results, like coin tosses, roulette wheels, and ruler measurements. These experiments share features of having known possible outcomes in advance but uncertainty about the specific outcome for each performance, and the ability to repeat the experiment under identical conditions.

Uploaded by

jayr domnigo
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY

Probability

The theory of probability had its origin in gambling and games of chance. It
owes much to the curiosity of gamblers who pestered their friends in the
mathematical world with all sorts of questions. Unfortunately, this association
with gambling contributed to very slow and sporadic growth of probability
theory as a mathematical discipline. The mathematicians of the day took little
or no interest in the development of any theory but looked only at the
combinatorial reasoning involved in each problem.
SAMPLE SPACE
In most branches of knowledge, experiments are a way of life. In probability and
statistics, too, we concern ourselves with special types of experiments. Consider
the following examples.

Example 1. A coin is tossed. Assuming that the coin does not land on the
side, there are two possible outcomes of the experiment: heads and tails. On
any performance of this experiment, one does not know what the outcome
will be. The coin can be tossed as many times as desired.
Example 2. A roulette wheel is a circular disk divided into 38 equal sectors numbered from 0 to
36 and 00. A ball is rolled on the edge of the wheel, and the wheel is rolled in the opposite
direction. One bets on any of the 38 numbers or some combination of them. One can also bet
on a color, red or black. If the ball lands in the sector numbered 32, say, anybody who bet on
32, or a combination including 32, wins; and so on. In this experiment, all possible outcomes
are known in advance, namely 00, 0, 1, 2,.. . , 36, but on any performance of the experiment
there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be, provided, of course, that the wheel is not
rigged in any manner. Clearly, the wheel can be rolled any number of times.

Example 3. A manufacturer produces 12-in rulers. The experiment consists in measuring


as accurately as possible the length of a ruler produced by the manufacturer. Because of
errors in the production process, one does not know what the true length of the ruler
selected will be. It is clear, however, that the length will be, say, between 11 and 13 in., or, if
one wants to be safe, between 6 and 18 in.
The experiments described above have certain common features. For each experiment, we
know in advance all possible outcomes; that is, there are no surprises in store after any
performance of the experiment. On any performance of the experiment, however, we do not
know what the specific outcome will be; that is, there is uncertainty about the outcome on any
performance of the experiment. Moreover, the experiment can be repeated under identical
conditions. These features describe a random (or statistical) experiment.

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