PROBABILITY

DR. GAGAN SINGH

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR
PROBABILITY: MEANING

 Probability means possibility.

 It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event. The value is expressed from zero to one.
 The meaning of probability is basically the extent to which
something is likely to happen.
 To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we
should know the total number of possible outcomes.
 Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur.
PROBABILITY

 Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can

predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they
are to happen, using it. Probability can range in from 0 to 1,
where 0 means the event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates
a certain event.

 For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail,

only two possible outcomes are possible (H, T). But if we toss
two coins in the air, there could be three possibilities of events
to occur, such as both the coins show heads or both show tails or
one shows heads and one tail, i.e.(H, H), (H, T),(T, T).
FORMULA FOR PROBABILITY

 The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event

to happen is equal to the ratio of the number of favourable
outcomes and the total number of outcomes.
 Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable
outcomes/Total Number of outcomes
Expl.:There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow
and 1 is blue. What is the probability of picking a yellow pillow?
 The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed
divided by the total number of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.
TYPES OF PROBABILITY

 There are three major types of probabilities:

 • Theoretical Probability

 • Experimental Probability

 • Axiomatic Probability

 Theoretical Probability
 It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The
theoretical probability is mainly based on the reasoning behind
probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical
probability of getting a head will be ½.
TYPES OF PROBABILITY
Experimental Probability
 It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment.
The experimental probability can be calculated based on the number of
possible outcomes by the total number of trials. For example, if a coin is
tossed 10 times and heads is recorded 6 times then, the experimental
probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
Axiomatic Probability
 In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all
types. These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known
as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to probability,
the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be quantified.
 Conditional Probability: is the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring
based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

 Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible

equally likely ways. Then the probability of happening of the event or its success
is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n
 The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:

P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)

 E’ represents that the event will not occur.

 Therefore, now we can say;

P(E) + P(E’) = 1
 This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is
equal to 1.
EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS

 When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening,

then they are called equally likely events.
 The results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them
have the same probability of occurring. For example, if you throw a
die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
 Similarly, the probability of getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and
6, one at a time is 1/6. Hence, the following are some examples of
equally likely events when throwing a die:
 • Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die

 • Getting an even number and an odd number on a die

 • Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die

are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states
that an event will occur or not.
Like a person will come or not come to your house, getting a job or
not getting a job, etc. are examples of complementary events.
Basically, the complement of an event occurring in the exact
opposite that the probability of it is not occurring. Some more
examples are:
• It will rain or not rain today
• The student will pass the exam or not pass.
• You win the lottery or you don’t.
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Those events whose occurrence is not dependent on any other event.
For example, if we flip a coin in the air and get the outcome as Head, then
again if we flip the coin but this time we get the outcome as Tail. In both
cases, the occurrence of both events is independent of each.
In Probability, the set of outcomes of an experiment is called events.
 If the probability of occurrence of an event A is not affected by the
occurrence of another event B, then A and B are said to be independent
events.
 Consider an example of rolling a die. If A is the event ‘the number
appearing is odd’ and B be the event ‘the number appearing is a multiple
of 3’, then
P(A)= 3/6 = 1/2 and P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Mutually exclusive events are those events that do not occur at the same time. For example, when a coin is
tossed then the result will be either head or tail, but we cannot get both the results. Such events are also
called disjoint events since they do not happen simultaneously. If A and B are mutually exclusive events
then its probability is given by P(A Or B) or P (A U B)
• In probability theory, two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same
time or simultaneously. In other words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint events. If two events
are considered disjoint events, then the probability of both events occurring at the same time will be zero.
• If A and B are the two events, then the probability of disjoint of event A and B is written by:
• Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive Event = P ( A and B) = 0
Some of the examples of the mutually exclusive events are:
When tossing a coin, the event of getting head and tail are mutually exclusive. Because the probability of
getting head and tail simultaneously is 0.
In a six-sided die, the events “2” and “5” are mutually exclusive. We cannot get both the events 2 and 5 at
the same time when we threw one die.
In a deck of 52 cards, drawing a red card and drawing a club are mutually exclusive events because all the
clubs are black.
PROBABILITY TERMS AND DEFINITION
Term Definition Example

Sample Space The set of all the possible outcomes to occur in 1. Tossing a coin, Sample Space (S) = {H,T}
any trial
2. Rolling a die, Sample Space (S) =
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Sample Point It is one of the possible results In a deck of Cards:

 4 of hearts is a sample point.
 The queen of clubs is a sample point.

Experiment or Trial A series of actions where the outcomes are always The tossing of a coin, Selecting a card from a deck
uncertain. of cards, throwing a dice.

Event It is a single outcome of an experiment. Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is an event.

Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a coin is

tossed.

Complimentary event The non-happening events. The complement of an Standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a heart, then A’ =
event A is the event, not A (or A’) Don’t draw a heart

Impossible Event The event cannot happen In tossing a coin, impossible to get both head and
tail at the same time
TERMINOLOGY OF PROBABILITY THEORY
 Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to produce an outcome is called an experiment.
 Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an experiment together constitute a sample space. For example,
the sample space of tossing a coin is head and tail.
 Favorable Outcome: An event that has produced the desired result or expected event is called a favorable
outcome. For example, when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable outcomes of getting the sum of numbers
on the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).
 Trial: A trial denotes doing a random experiment.
 Random Experiment: An experiment that has a well-defined set of outcomes is called a random experiment.
For example, when we toss a coin, we know that we would get ahead or tail, but we are not sure which one
will appear.
 Event: The total number of outcomes of a random experiment is called an event.
 Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chances or probability of occurring are called equally
likely events. The outcome of one event is independent of the other. For example, when we toss a coin, there
are equal chances of getting a head or a tail.
 Exhaustive Events: When the set of all outcomes of an experiment is equal to the sample space, we call it an
exhaustive event.
 Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot happen simultaneously are called mutually exclusive events.
For example, the climate can be either hot or cold. We cannot experience the same weather simultaneously.
APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
 Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the common
applications which we see in our everyday life while checking the results of the
following events:
 • Choosing a card from the deck of cards
 • Flipping a coin
 • Throwing a dice in the air
 • Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
 • Winning a lucky draw

 Other Major Applications of Probability

 • It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries
 • Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
 • Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength of team
 • In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share price
EXAMPLES
Example 1: Find the probability of ‘getting 3 on rolling a die’.
Solution:
Sample Space = S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting 3.
Number of favourable outcomes = n(A) = 1
i.e. A = {3}
Probability, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/6
Hence, P(getting 3 on rolling a die) = 1/6
Example 2: Draw a random card from a pack of cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is a face card?
Solution:
A standard deck has 52 cards.
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52
Let E be the event of drawing a face card.
Number of favourable events = n(E) = 4 x 3 = 12 (considered Jack, Queen and King only)
Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
= 12/52
= 3/13
P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13
EXAMPLES
Example 3: What is the probability of getting a sum of 10 when two dice are thrown?
Solution:
There are 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.
The desired outcome is 10. To get 10, we can have three favorable outcomes.
{(4,6),(6,4),(5,5)}
Probability of an event = number of favorable outcomes/ sample space
Probability of getting number 10 = 3/36 =1/12
Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 10 is 1/12.
Example 4: In a bag, there are 6 blue balls and 8 yellow balls. One ball is selected randomly
from the bag. Find the probability of getting a blue ball.
Solution:
Let us assume the probability of drawing a blue ball to be P(B)
Number of favorable outcomes to get a blue ball = 6
Total number of balls in the bag = 14
P(B) = Number of favorable outcomes/Total number of outcomes = 6/14 = 3/7
Answer: Therefore the probability of drawing a blue ball is 3/7.
PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutation and combination form the principles of counting

and they are applied in various situations. A permutation is a
count of the different arrangements which can be made from the
given set of things. In permutation the details matter, as the
order or sequence is important. Writing the names of three
countries {USA, Brazil, Australia} or {Australia, USA, Brazil)
or { Brazil, Australia, USA} is different and this sequence in
which the names of the countries are written is important.
 In combinations, the name of three countries is just a single
group, and the sequence or order does not matter.
PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutations are understood as arrangements and combinations are

understood as selections.
 Suppose there are 14 boys and 9 girls. If a boy or a girl has to be
selected to be the monitor of the class, the teacher can select 1 out of
14 boys or 1 out of 9 girls. She can do it in 14 + 9 = 23 ways(using
the sum rule of counting).
 Let us look at another scenario. Suppose Sam usually takes one main
course and a drink. Today he has the choice of burger, pizza, hot
dog, watermelon juice, and orange juice. What are all the possible
combinations that he can try? There are 3 snack choices and 2 drink
choices. We multiply to find the combinations. 3 × 2 = 6. Thus Sam
can try 6 combinations using the product rule of counting.
PERMUTATIONS

 A permutation is an arrangement in a definite order of a number

of objects taken some or all at a time. Let us take 10 numbers: 0,
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. The number of different 4-digit-PIN
which can be formed using these 10 numbers is 5040. P(10,4) =
5040. This is a simple example of permutations.
 A permutation is an arrangement in a definite order of several
objects taken, some or all at a time, with permutations, every
tiny detail matters. It means the order in which elements are
arranged is significant.
 The permutations is easily calculated using 
COMBINATIONS

 A combination is all about grouping. The number of different groups which

can be formed from the available things can be calculated using combinations.
Let us try to understand this with a simple example. A team of 2 is formed
from 5 students (William, James, Noah, Logan, and Oliver). This the
combination of 'r' persons from the available 'n' persons is given as

 The combinations can happen in the following 10 ways by which the team of
2 could be formed.
 The combination is a way of selecting elements from a set so that the order of
selection doesn’t matter. With the combination, only choosing elements
matters. It means the order in which elements are chosen is not essential.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutations are used when order/sequence of arrangement is needed.

Combinations are used when only the number of possible groups are to
be found, and the order/sequence of arrangements is not needed.
 Permutations are used for things of a different kind. Combinations are
used for things of a similar kind.
 The permutation of two things from three given things a, b, c is ab, ba,
bc, cb, ac, ca. The combination of two things from three given things a,
b, c is ab, bc, ca
 For different possible arrangement of things nPr=n!/(n-r)!. For different
possible selection of things nCr =n!/r!(n-r)!
 For a given set of n and r values, the permutation answer is larger than
the combination answer.
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE