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Model Paper Discussion

1. The document discusses sampling techniques and distributions that can be used to analyze sample data and make inferences about populations. It provides examples of binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. 2. Questions are provided as examples of how to calculate probabilities and determine critical values using the different distributions based on given population parameters and sample data. 3. Formulas and characteristics of the different distributions are reviewed to aid in solving the probability questions.

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seyon sithamparanathan
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27 views15 pages

Model Paper Discussion

1. The document discusses sampling techniques and distributions that can be used to analyze sample data and make inferences about populations. It provides examples of binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. 2. Questions are provided as examples of how to calculate probabilities and determine critical values using the different distributions based on given population parameters and sample data. 3. Formulas and characteristics of the different distributions are reviewed to aid in solving the probability questions.

Uploaded by

seyon sithamparanathan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Model Paper Discussion

Recap of the introduction to statistics


• Data types
• Data collection methods
• Population
• Sample
• Sampling techniques
Objective : Decide on the uniform material
length be given to school children
• Population
• School children in Sri Lanka – age 6 - 18
• Sample
• Gender
• Age categories
• Sampling technique
• Probability samples
• Simple random
• Systematic random
• Stratified random sampling
• Cluster sampling
• Non-probability
• Snowball sampling
• Convenience sampling
• Judgmental sampling
• Purposive sampling
• Voluntary sampling
• Data collection
• Type of Data to be collected
• 3 districts
• Colombo
• Boy schools- 5- 1000
• Girls Schools-4-800
• Mixed Schools-6- 500 girls
• 500 boys
Probability Distributions
• Discrete probability distributions
• Binomial
• Poison
• Continuous probability distributions
• Normal distribution
Q1
When a customer places an order with Rudy’s online office suppliers, a computerized Accounting Information System (AIS)
automatically checks to see if the customer has exceeded his or her credit limit. Past records indicate that the probability of
customers exceeding their credit limit is 0.05. Suppose that, on a given day, 20 customers place orders.
1. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the number of customers exceeding their credit limits
2. What is the probability that zero customers will exceed their limits?
3. What is the probability that exactly one customer will exceed his or her limit?

Exceed or not is checked


Pr that a customer exceeds credit limit is Probability of success p=0.05 – population
Pr that a customer will not exceed the credit limit = 1-0.05 =0.95
A sample of n=20 – a fixed number of trials
Pr of success & a Pr. Of failure

Pr(0)
Pr(1)
• Mean = np
• =20*0.05
• standDev= Sqrt(np(1-p))= Sqrt(20*0.05(1-0.05))
• Pr(0)=Pr(x=0)=n!/x!(n-x)!*Px (1-p)n-x
• Pr(x=1)
• Pr(x>=2) 2,3,4,5….20
• Pr(x>=2)=1-(Pr(0)+Pr(1))
LO 4: Find binomial probabilities using tables,
formulas, or Excel (continued, 12).
Recognizing Binomial Applications

• Can you recognize a binomial situation? The binomial


distribution has five main characteristics.
• The number of trials (n) is fixed.
• There are only two outcomes for each trial: success or
failure.
• The probability of success for each trial (π) remains
constant.
• The trials are independent of each other.
• The random variable (X) is the number of successes out
of n trials.
LO 4: Find binomial probabilities using tables,
formulas, or Excel (continued, 3).
Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution (continued, 2)
Q2
• The Quality control manager of Marilyn’s Cookies is inspecting a batch
of chocolate-chip cookies that has just been baked. If the production
process is in control, the average number of chip parts per cookie is 6.0.
1. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected,
fewer than five chip parts will be found? λ = 6
Pr(x<5) =Pr(x=0)+Pr(x=1)+Pr(x=2)+Pr(x=3)+Pr(x=4)
Pr(x=3)= (λxe-λ)/x!=(63e-6)/3!

2. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected,


three or four chip parts will be found? Pr(x=3)+Pr(x=4)
5 Poisson Distribution
LO 5: Find Poisson probabilities using tables,
formulas, or Excel.
• The Poisson distribution describes the number of occurrences within a
randomly chosen unit of time (e.g., minute, hour) or space (square foot,
linear mile).
• The events occur randomly and independently over a continuum of time
or space.
• We will call the continuum “time” since the most common Poisson
application is modeling arrivals per unit of time.

Each dot (•) is an occurrence of the event of interest.


LO 5: Find Poisson probabilities using tables,
formulas, or Excel (continued, 3).

Characteristics of the Poisson Distribution

• All characteristics of the Poisson model are determined by its mean λ.


• The constant e (the base of the natural logarithm system) is
approximately 2.71828 (to see a more precise value of e, use your
calculator’s ex function with x = 1).
• The mean of the Poisson distribution is λ, and its standard deviation is
the square root of the mean.
• The simplicity of the Poisson formulas makes it an attractive model
(easier than the binomial, for example).
• Unlike the binomial, X has no obvious limit, that is, the number of
events that can occur in a given unit of time is not bounded. However,
Poisson probabilities taper off toward zero as X increases, so the
effective range is usually small.
Q3
The average life of a certain steel-belted radial tire is advertised as 60,000 miles. Assume that the life of the tires is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2,500
miles. (The life of a tire is defined as the number of miles the tire is driven before blowing out.)
1. Find the probability that a randomly selected steel-belted radial tire will have a life of 62,000 miles or less.
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected steel-belted radial tire will have a life between 62,000 miles and 66,000 miles.
3. To avoid a tire blowout, the company manufacturing the tires will warn purchasers to replace each tire after it has been used for a given number of miles. What should
be the replacement time (in miles) so that only 1% of the tires would blowout?
Mean=60000 std = 2500
Z=2.33
2.33=(x-60000)/2500 X 
0.49
Z

1%=0.01
Z=(62000-60000)/2500
=2000/2500=0.8
Pr(0<z<0.8)=0.2887
Pr(z<0)=0.5
60,000 Therefore, P(z<0.8)=0.5+0.2887=0.7887
2500 X=62000 66000
Z – Formula
X 
Z

Where
Z is the normal deviate
X is some specified value for the random variable
 is population mean
s Is population standard deviation

https://www.technologynetworks.com/informatics/articles/paired-vs-unpaired-t-test-differences-assu
mptions-and-hypotheses-330826

https://www.statology.org/one-way-vs-two-way-anova/#:~:text=One%2Dway%20ANOVA%3A%20Us
ed%20to,factors%20on%20the%20response%
20variable.

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