Chapter 4

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 Chapter 4
Introduction to Probabilities
CHAPTER 4 MAP
4.1 An Introduction to Probabilities

4.2 Probability Rules

4.3 Permutations & Computations

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4.1 An Introduction to Probabilities

A probability is a numerical value ranging

from 0 to 1.
Probability indicates the chance, or likelihood,
of a specific event occurring.
• If there is no chance of the event occurring, the
probability is 0.
• If the event is absolutely going to occur, the
probability of it occurring is 1.

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 Definitions

Experiment
• The process of measuring or observing an activity
for the purpose of collecting data
• An example is rolling a single six-sided die

Sample space
• All the possible outcomes, or results, of an
experiment
• The sample space for our single-die experiment is
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

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 Definitions
Event
• An event is a single result of an experiment.
• An example of an event is one possible “event”
could be rolling a die an even number.

Outcome
• An outcome is a result of a random experiment
• An example of outcome a rolling a die has six
possible outcomes.

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Sample Space Examples

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 Example 1

A dice is thrown at once , find the probability of

obtaining:
a) Six
b) An even number
c) 3 or 5
d) Number greater than Three
e) Number greater than six
f) Number less six

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 Example 2

A box containing 4 red balls and 5 black

balls are selected randomly, find the
probability of getting:
a) Black Balls
b) Red Balls
c) Green Ball

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 TRY

If Ali grabs a box containing 3 white Pens,

4 blue pens, and 5 yellow pens, what is
the probability that he will grab a white
pens and a yellow pen?

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 Example 3

If a coin is flipped twice, determine the

probability that it will land both
a) Heads
b) Tails

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 TRY

1. A coin is tossed twice. Find the

probability of getting:
A. One Head
B. One Tail

2. Three coins are tossed simultaneously,

find the probability of getting exactly one
head.

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Methods of Assigning Probability

Methods of Assigning Probability

Classical Empirical Subjective

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 Classical Probability
Methods of Assigning Probability

Classical Empirical Subjective

• Used when the number of possible outcomes of the event

of interest is known
• Formula for classical probability

Number of possible outcomes that constitute Event A

P(A) =
Total number of possible outcomes in the sample space
where:
P(A) = The probability that Event A will occur
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 Classical Probability Example

Experiment: Roll a die once

Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Define Event A as rolling a five

• There are six possible outcomes in the sample space.
• Event A (rolling a five) can happen one way.

P(A) = 1/6 = 0.167, or a 16.7% probability

• This is a Simple Probability: it represents the
likelihood of a single (simple) event occurring by itself

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 Classical Probability Example

Experiment: Roll a die once

Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Classical probability assumes that each event

in the sample space has the same likelihood
of occurring.

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 Empirical Probability
Methods of Assigning Probability

Classical Empirical Subjective

• Involves conducting an experiment to observe the

frequency with which an event occurs
• Formula for empirical probability

Frequency in which Event A occurs

P(A) =
Total number of observations

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 Empirical Probability
Example 1: In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O
blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2
had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
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 Example continue
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
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 Example continue
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
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 Empirical Probability

Example: A survey of 400 new graduates asked how much they

owed in student loans. The results are shown in the following table:
Amount Frequency
$30,000 or more 47
$20,000–$29,999 66
$10,000–$19,999 144
$5,000–$9,999 102
Less than $5,000 41
Total 400

a) What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate has between

$5,000–$9,999 in student loans?

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate has $20,000

or more in student loans?

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 Empirical Probability
Example: (Continued)
Amount Frequency
$30,000 or more 47
$20,000–$29,999 66
$10,000–$19,999 144
$5,000–$9,999 102
Less than $5,000 41
Total 400

a) What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate has between

$5,000–$9,999 in student loans?

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate has $20,000

or more in student loans?

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 Subjective Probability
Methods of Assigning Probability

Classical Empirical Subjective

Used when classical and empirical probabilities

are not available
• Instead use experience or intuition to estimate the
probabilities
• Example: The probability that inflation will be
greater than 4% next year

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 Basic Properties of a Probability
Probability Rule 1
• If P(A) = 1, then with certainty, Event A must occur.

Probability Rule 2
• If P(A) = 0, then with certainty, Event A will not occur.

Probability Rule 3
• The probability of any event must range from 0 to 1.

Probability Rule 4
• The sum of all the probabilities for the simple events
in the sample space must be equal to 1.

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 Basic Properties of a Probability
Probability Rule 5
• The complement to Event A is defined as all of
the outcomes in the sample space that are not
part of Event A.
• The complement is denoted as A'.

Formula for the complement rule:

P(A) + P(A' ) = 1
or
P(A) = 1 – P(A' )

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Example

If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability

of getting these results.
a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9

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a. A sum of 6
Total of 36 outcomes

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2), (3,3),
(4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).

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 Total of 36 outcomes
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5).

d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).

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4.2 Probability Rules for More Than
One Event

Many situations involve two or more events that

intersect with one another.

The intersection of Events A and B represents

the number of instances in which Events A and B
occur at the same time.

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 The Intersection of Events

Example
The symbol for the intersection of sets is "∩''.
For any two sets A and B, the intersection, A ∩
B (read as A intersection B) lists all the
elements that are present in both events
(common elements of A and B).

For example, if event A = {1,2,3,4,5} and event

B = {3,4,6,8}, A ∩ B = {3,4}.

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 The Union of Events

The union of Events A and B represents the

number of instances where either Event A or
B occur or both events occur together.

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 Example
The experiment of rolling a single die, find the union of the
events E : “the number rolled is even” and T : “the number
rolled is greater than two.”
Solution:
Since the outcomes that are in either E={2,4,6} or
T={3,4,5,6} (or both) are 2,3,4,5, and 6 , that means
E∪T={2,3,4,5,6} .
Note that an outcome such as 4 that is in both sets is still
listed only once.

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 The Addition Rule

The addition rule for probabilities is used to

calculate the probability of the union of events.
• the probability that Event A, or Event B, or both events
will occur
Two events are considered to be mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time during the experiment.

mutually exclusive not mutually exclusive

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 The Addition Rule
Mutually exclusive are those events that cannot occur
at the same time.

For mutually exclusive events, the addition rule states

that the probability of two events occurring is simply
the sum of their individual probabilities:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If Events A and B are not mutually exclusive:

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 The Addition Rule

+ –

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Note: P(A and B) = 0 if events A and B are mutually exclusive.

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 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even
number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

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 Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

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 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

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 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a
number less than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive

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EXAMPLE
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck
of cards, find the probability of getting the
following:

a. A king or a queen or a jack.

b. A club or a heart or a spade.
c. A king or a queen or a
diamond.

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Let is remember ordinary deck

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 If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:

a. A king or a queen or a jack.

There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 4 jacks,

hence:

P (king or queen or jack)

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If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
b. A club or a heart or a spade.

There are 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and 13

spades, hence:

P(club or heart or spade)

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If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards, find the
probability of getting the following:
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 13
diamonds but the king and queen of
diamonds were counted twice, hence:
P(king or queen or diamond)
P(king) + P(queen) + P(diamond)
– P(king or queen of diamonds)

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 Example : R&D Employees
The corporate research and development centers for
three local companies have the following number of
employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the
probability that the employee is employed by U.S. Steel
or Alcoa.

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Example : R&D Employees

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 Example : Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.

Staff Females Males Total

Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

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 Conditional Probabilities
A conditional probability is the probability of
one event, given that another event has
occurred:
The conditional
probability of A given
that B has occurred

The conditional
probability of B given
that A has occurred

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
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 Example

In a group of 100 computer buyers, 40 bought

CPU, 30 purchased monitor, and 20 purchased
CPU and monitors. If a computer buyer chose
at random and bought a CPU, what is the
probability they also bought a Monitor?

 P(A) = 40% or 0.4

P(A∩B) = 20% or 0.2
P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)
P(B|A) = 0.2/0.4 = 2/4 = ½ = 0.5

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 Conditional Probability Example
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air
conditioning (AC) and 40% have a GPS. 20%
of the cars have both.
What is the probability that a car has a GPS,
given that it has AC ?

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 Example : Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.

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 Example : Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),
given that the respondent was a female (F).

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 Example : Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M),
given that the respondent answered no (N).

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 Independent and Dependent Events

Two events are considered independent of one

another if the occurrence of one event has no
impact on the occurrence of the other event.
If the occurrence of one event affects the
occurrence of another event, the events are
considered dependent.

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 The Multiplication Rule
The multiplication rule is used to determine the
probability of the intersection of two events
occurring, or P(A and B).
Formula for the multiplication rule for dependent
events:

or

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 The Multiplication Rule
Example for dependent events:
Event A = rain is forecasted
Event B = carry umbrella

Assume: P(rain forecasted) = 0.30

P(carry umbrella | rain forecasted) = 0.90

So there is a 27% probability that it will rain and you

will carry an umbrella.

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 Example : Independent event
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

This problem could be solved using sample space.

H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

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 4.3 Permutations

Permutations: The number of ways of

arranging X objects selected from n objects in
order.
Formula= n!
Example: Find the number of four words, that
can be formed from the letter ROSE?
Solution
4!=24 Ways.

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 Permutations

Formula for the Permutations of n Objects

Selected x at a Time

where:
n = The total number of objects
x = The number of objects to be selected

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 Permutations
Suppose that two letters are to be selected from
A, B, C, D and arranged in order. How many
permutations are possible?
Answer:
• The number of permutations, with n = 4 and x = 2 , is

The permutations are

AB AC AD BA BC BD
CA CB CD DA DB DC

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 Example: Television Ads
The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads to use
on the program.

If she selects 1 of them for the opening of the show, 1 for the
middle of the show, and 1 for the ending of the show, how
many possible ways can this be accomplished?

Since order is important, the solution is

Hence, there would be 210 ways to show 3 ads.

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 Computations

Combinations are the number of different

ways in which objects can be arranged
without regard to order.
Formula for the Combinations of n Objects
Selected x at a Time:

• When the order of objects is important, use

permutations. When the order of objects does
not matter, use combinations.

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 Combinations

Suppose that two letters are to be selected

from A, B, C, D. How many combinations are
possible (i.e., order is not important)?
Answer: The number of combinations is

The combinations are

AB (same as BA) BC (same as CB)
AC (same as CA) BD (same as DB)
AD (same as DA) CD (same as DC)

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 Example : Book Reviews
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides
that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How many
different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

The placement in the newspaper is not mentioned, so order

does not matter. We will use combinations.

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 Example : Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3
women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many different
possibilities are there?

There are not separate roles listed for each committee

member, so order does not matter. We will use combinations.

There are 35·10 = 350 different possibilities.

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 Example :Golf Club Selection
Example
How many ways can a foursome of 2 men and 2 women
be selected from 10 men and 12 women in a golf club?

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 Example : Committee Selection
EXAMPLE

How many ways can a committee of 4 people be selected

from a group of 10 people?

Since order is not important, the solution is:

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