PROBABILITY

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 OBJECTIVE
Illustrating the probability of the union
and intersection of events
“ It is remarkable that a science which began with
the consideration of games of chance should have
become the most important object of human
knowledge. The most important questions of life
indeed, for the most part, really only problems of
probability.” – Pierre Simon de Laplace

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 Definition:

Probability:
 The branch of Mathematics that deals with uncertainty
 It is a measure or estimation of how likely it is that an
event will occur. It is the ratio of the number of ways
an event can occur to the number of possible
outcomes.

# of ways a certain outcome or event can occur

Probability =
# of possible outcomes
DEFINITION OF TERMS
1. Experiments – activities such as tossing or flipping a coin or
picking a card from a standard deck of cards.
2. Outcomes – the result of an experiment
3. Event – set of possible outcomes
4. Sample Space – the set of all outcomes in an experiment
5. Sample point – each individual outcome

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 When you roll a die once, there are 6
possible outcome which are 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Getting an even number includes 3
outcomes; these are 2,4,6. “Getting an even
number” is called an event.
Illustration of the terms:
Experiment Sample Space Sample Point (any
from the outcomes)
Flipping two coins HH, HT, TH, TT HH
Rolling a Die 1,2,3,4,5,6 3
Drawing a card from a 13 diamonds, 13 King of Hearts
deck of cards Hearts, 13 Spades, 13
Clubs
Probability of Events
The probability of an
event P(event) is a number
from 0 to 1 which tells how
likely the event is to happen.
Probability RULES
1. Probability of any event is a number
which a fraction, decimal or percent
from 0-1

(Fraction) = ¼
(Decimal) = 0.25
(Percent) = 25%
2. The probability of an event is always
between 0 and 1, inclusive. If an event cannot
happen, its probability is 0. If something is certain
to happen, its probability is 1

0 unlikely 1 likely 1
2

impossible 50-50 chance certain

Likely or
unlikely
 0 1 1
2

impossible 50-50 chance certain

0% 50% 100%

3. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in sample

space is 1.
Probability of Simple Events:
If each of the outcomes in a sample space is equally
likely to occur, then the probability of an event E,
denoted P(E) is given by

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃 ( 𝐸 )=
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑡h𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )=
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑡h𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡 /𝑠
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )=
𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
Examples:
Examples: 1. What is the probability of getting a
diamond from a standard deck of cards?

2. What is the probability of getting an Ace from a

standard deck of cards?

3. A die is rolled once. Find the probability of

obtaining a 5.
 Compound Events: Events which
consist of more than one outcome. A
compound event consists of two or
more simple events.
Examples:
• In rolling a pair of dice, the sample space is 6x6 or 36.
• In tossing two coins, the sample space is 2x2 or 4.

You can apply the fundamental counting principle to

determine the sample space for compound events.
 FINDING
PROBABILITY USING
COMBINATIONS

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There are 4 boys and 8 girls on the on
the debate team. The coach randomly
chooses 3 of the students to participate
in a competition. What is the
probability that the coach chooses all
girls?
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 There are 52 cards in a standard
deck, 13 in each suits: clubs,
diamonds, hearts, and spades. Five
cards are randomly drawn from the
deck. What is the probability that
all five cards are diamonds?
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A coin is tossed 4 times. What
is the probability of getting
exactly 3 heads?

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FINDING PROBABILITY
USING COMBINATIONS
AND ADDITION

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a. A coin is flipped 5 times. What is
the probability that the result is
heads at least 4 of the 5 times?

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 b. Three number cubes are
rolled and the result is
recorded. What is the
probability that at least 2 of the
number cubes show 6?

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YOUR TURN!

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 A math department has a large database of
true-false questions, half of which are true
and half of which are false, that are used to
create future exams. A new test is created by
randomly selecting 6 questions from the
database. What is the probability the new test
contains at most 2 questions where the correct
answer is “true”? E Birbeck 7/04
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There are equally many boys and
girls in the senior class. If 5
seniors are randomly selected to
form student council, what is the
probability council will contain at
least 3 girls?
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SEATWORK

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 1. A school has 5 Spanish teachers
and 4 French teachers. The school’s
principal randomly chooses 2 of the
teachers to attend a conference. What
is the probability that the principal
chooses 2 Spanish teachers?
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 2. There are 6 fiction books and 8
nonfiction books on a reading list.
Your teacher randomly assigns you 4
books to read over the summer.
What is the probability that you are
assigned all nonfiction books?
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 3. A bag contains 26 tiles, each with
different letter of the alphabet written on
it. You choose 3 tiles from the bag without
looking. What is the probability that you
choose the tiles with the letters A, B, C

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4. A bouquet of 6 flowers is made up
by randomly choosing between roses
and carnations. What is the
probability the bouquet will have at
most 2 roses?
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 5. A bag of fruit contains 10 pcs of
fruit, chosen randomly from bins of
apples and oranges. What is the
probability the bag contain at least
6 oranges?

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 PROBABILITY OF UNION OF EVENTS

Examples:
1. In the experiment of rolling a single die, find the
union of the events A: “the number rolled is even”
and B: “the number rolled is greater than two”.

Solution: Sample Space= {1,2,3,4,5,6}

A= {2,4,6}
B= {3,4,5,6}
AUB= {2,3,4,5,6}
𝑛( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) 5
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )= =
𝑛(𝑆) 6
3. The Venn Diagram shows the probabilities of grade 10 students
joining either soccer (S) or basketball (B). Use the Venn Diagram
to find the probabilities.
a. P(B)
b. b. P(S) S
B
c. c. P(BUS) 0.4 0.3 0.2

0.1

a. P(B) = 0.4 + 0.3 = 0.7 –probability for students to join

basketball
b. b. P(S) = 0.3 + 0.2 – probability for students to join soccer
c. c. P(BUS) = 0.4+0.3+0.2 = 0.9 prob. For students to join
either basketball or soccer
Probability of Intersection of
Events
Examples: 1. In the experiment of rolling a
single die, find the intersection of the events
A: “the number rolled is even” and
B: “the number rolled is greater than two”.
Solution: Sample Space = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
A= { 2,4,6}
B= { 3,4,5,6}
A B={ 4,6}
𝑛( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2 1
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )= = 𝑜𝑟
𝑛(𝑆) 6 3
 The extracurricular activities in which the senior class at Kananga
National High School participate are shown in the Venn diagram
below.
Band 51
30
10 8
Drama
38 4 137
athletics

67

30+10 40 8
𝑃 ( 𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑎 ∩ 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 ) = = 𝑜𝑟
51+30+10 +8+38+ 4 +137+67 345 69
14 10 2
𝑃 ( 𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑎 ∩ 𝐴𝑡h𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑎 ∩ 𝐴𝑡h𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 ∩ 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 )= 𝑜𝑟
345 345 69
Complement of an Event
The complement of an event is the set of all outcomes that are
NOT in the event. This means that if the probability of an event , A
is P(A), then the probability that the event would not occur ( also
known as complementary event) is 1-P(A), denoted by P(A’).

P (A’) = 1 - P ( A )
Example: 1. Consider the Venn Diagram below.
Sample Space: {1,2,3,4,5,6}
a. What is the probability of getting a 3?
b. What is the complement of A?

Solution: a. P(3) = 1/6

b. P(A’) = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6

1 A
5
2 3
4 6
2. If there is a 60% chance of rain
tomorrow, what is the probability of
having a fair weather?
Solution: P(fair weather) = 100% -
60% = 40%
• When is probability used in our real life
situation?
• Why do you think is the study of
probability important in making decisions
in real life?
Here are some enrichment activities for you to
work on to master and strengthen the basic
concepts you have learned in this lesson. Write
them in a whole sheet of paper.
Activity 1: See My Prob-ability! Solve the following
carefully.
1. Conie is asked to choose a day from a week. What is the
probability of choosing a day which starts with T?
2. Choosing a month from a year, what is the probability
of selecting a month with 30 days?
3. The sides of a cube are numbered 1 to 6. What is the
probability of rolling a prime number?
4. A box contains 3 red balls, 5 yellow balls, 4 blue balls
and 2 green balls. What is the probability of drawing a
yellow ball?
5. What is the probability of getting a heart from a standard
deck of cards?
Activity 2: Finding Probabilities! Study the Venn Diagram and answer
the following questions. The International Club of a school has 105
members, many of whom speak multiple languages. The most
commonly spoken in the club are English, Spanish and Chinese. Use
The Venn diagram to determine the Probability of selecting a student
who speaks:
1.Chinese
2.English Spanish
Chinese
3.Spanish
4.Spanish or Chinese 6
4
5.Chinese or English 5
6.English or Spanish 30 9
7.English and Chinese 11
8.Chinese and Spanish 36
9. English and Spanish
10. Does not speak the 7
English
3 languages
Activity 3: Find for the ff. the probabilities.
Sample Space: { 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
A= {0,1,2,3,4}, B ={ 0,2,4,6,8 }, C= {1,3,5,7,9}
1..P(AUB)
2. P(AUC)
3.P(AUBUC)
4.P(A B)
5.P(B C)
6.P(A B C)
7.P(A B)UC
8. P(A’)
9.P(B’)
10.P(C’)