Finding the Probability of a

Simple Event

MIRASOL Q. GENOVEA
G8-Mathematics Teacher
 OBJECTIVE
At the end of today’s lesson, you should be able to;
find the probability of a simple event
(SSP_M8SP-IVg-3-h-1)
Activity 1: What is my Level of Certainty?
Directions: Study the figure below then identify whether each
given statement is impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, or
certain to happen.
1. There is 50% chance that I will win the game.
2. The weather forecast gives 25 % chance of rain tomorrow.
3. The chance that Jay is chosen to represent his class in the
Student Council is 0.6.
4. A week has 8 days.
5. There are 12 months this year.
6. The month of December has 31 days.
7. A 5 turning up in rolling a die once.
8. A tail facing up in tossing a coin once.
9. A pig flies.
10.Noel getting a score of 10 in a 25-item test.
Questions:
1.Which among the statements
a. are certain to happen?
b. have even chance to happen?
c. are impossible to happen?

2. How do you describe the certainty of an

event?
 In our daily life, we always make decisions
even if we are not certain of the outcomes. Most
of the time, we are taking chances despite not
knowing the possible results or consequences.
This certainty or uncertainty is what we call
probability.
 Probability is the measure of likelihood or chance that an
event will happen or occur. For experiments where each
outcome is equally likely to occur, it is the ratio of the number
of ways an event can occur to the number of all possible
outcomes. Experiment broadly refers to a situation that
involves random results. Experiment is any activity that can
be done repeatedly whose results vary even conditions are the
same. Experiment has a well-defined set of possible outcomes,
known as the sample space. Some examples of experiments
are rolling dice, tossing coins, random selection using
spinners, drawing a card from a shuffled deck of cards,
randomly choosing numbers, choosing a random letter from
the alphabet, and many more.
 Looking back at the activity presented in the
―What‘s New‖ part of this module, statements such
as ―there is 50% chance that I will win the game; the
weather forecast gives 25 % chance of rain tomorrow;
and the chance that Jay is chosen to represent his
class in the Student Council is 0.6, are few examples
of statements about probability.
Probabilities are written as fractions or decimals from 0 to 1 or as
percent from 0% to 100%. The higher an event‘s probability, the more
likely that the event is to happen.
Presented below is the probability line showing the probability of an event
followed by the probability rules.
 Probability Rules

1. If an event has a probability of 0, or 0%, then it will never

happen or it is impossible to happen.

Example: A 7 turning up in a rolling a die once.

It is impossible for 7 to turn up in rolling a die once because

the only numbers in the faces a die are 1, 2, 3, ,4, 5, and 6.
Therefore, the probability for 7 to turn up is zero, P(7) = = 0,
Hence, the occurrence of 7 in rolling a die once is an
impossible event.
2. If an event has a probability of 0.5 or 50%, then the event has
the same chance or even chance to happen or not to happen.

Example: Winning in playing chess with your friend.

Usually, in playing a game, the player may either win or lose.

So, when you play chess with your friend, you have 50% chance
of winning and 50% of losing the game. Therefore, P(win) =
P(lose) = ½ = 50%. Hence, your chance of winning or losing the
game is an even event.
3. If an event has a probability of 1, or 100%, then the event is
certain to happen.

Example:
• If today is Monday, the probability that tomorrow is Tuesday
is 1. Therefore, the event that tomorrow will be a Tuesday if
today is a Monday is a certain event.

• If an employer chooses an employee at random from a group

of 50 male employees, the probability that the chosen
employee is a male is 1 since all the employees in the group
are males. Hence, P( male)= = 1 . Therefore, the event of
choosing a male employee from a group of male employees is
a certain event.
4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes of an
experiment is 1.

Example:

If you flip a fair coin once, there are two possible outcomes, a
head or a tail. The probability of getting a tail is and the
probability of getting a head is . Therefore, the sum of the
probabilities of the outcomes is 1.
 Some types of Probability

1. Experimental Probability

It is based on the number of possible outcomes by the total

number of trials. When tossing a coin, the total possible
outcomes are two, heads and tails. The total number of trials is
determined by the total times the coin is flipped. If the coin is
flipped 50 times and it lands on heads 28 times, then the
experimental probability of head is 28/50.
2. Theoretical Probability

It is an approach that bases the probability on the possible

chances of something to happen. For example, if you want to
know the theoretical probability that a die will land on a
number “3” when rolled, you must determine how many
possible outcomes there are. On a die, there are six numbers
that are equally likely to occur, offering six possibilities. To
land on a three, you have a one-in-six, or 1:6, chance of it
landing on a “3”. So, the P(3) = 1/6.
3. Subjective Probability

It is based on a person‘s own personal reasoning and

judgment. It is the probability that the outcome a person is
expecting will actually occur. There are no formal
calculations for subjective probability but instead it is based
on a person‘s own knowledge and feelings. For example,
during a sport‘s game, a fan of one team may state that the
team they are rooting for will win. The person bases his
decision on facts or opinions regarding the game, the two
teams and the likelihood of the team winning.
 The focus of our lesson is the theoretical probability of
simple event. A simple event is one that can only happen in
one way - in other words, it has a single outcome. If we
consider our previous example of tossing a coin: we get one
outcome that is a head or a tail.

An event can include several outcomes.

• Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings)
is also an event.
• Rolling an "even number" in rolling a die once (2, 4 or 6) is
an event.
Probability of simple event can be calculated using the
formula

in symbol P(E )=, where E is the event, n(E) is the number of

favourable outcomes, while n(S) is the total number of
possible outcomes of an experiment or the total number of
outcomes in the sample space. To find the probability of an
event to occur, first we should know the total number of
possible outcomes, and second is to know the number of
times the event can occur. Then use the formula. If the
probability is expressed in fraction, it is desired to express it
in simplest form for the uniformity of answers.
Example 1- Probability in Experiment Involving Coin

If you flip a coin once, what is the probability of getting a

head?
Solution:
When you flip a coin once, there are two possible outcomes,
either a head or a tail. So, to calculate the probability of
getting a head, we use the formula for getting the probability
of simple events.
P(E )=

where: P(E) is the probability of the event (H).

n(E) is the number of getting a head.
n(S) is the total number of possible outcomes.

P(H) =
So, the probability of getting a head in flipping a coin once is .
Example 2 – Probability in Experiment Involving Spinner

Given the spinner at the right, what is the probability that it

will land on blue if it is spun once?
Solutions:
The spinner is divided into 4 congruent regions colored blue,
green, yellow and red. The number of favorable outcome that
the spinner will land on color blue is 1 out of 4. Using the
formula;

P(E )=
where: P(E) is the probability that it will land on blue (B).
n(E) is the number of getting a head.
n(S) is the total number of possible outcomes.
P(B) =
So, the probability that it will land on blue (B) is .
Example 3 - Probability in Experiment Involving Die

Given a standard die, find the probability of the following events when
rolling a die once:
a) getting a 4
b) b) getting an odd number
c) c) getting a 7

Solutions:

A fair die has 6 faces and contains the numbers 1, 2, 3 ,4 ,5 and 6.

Therefore, our sample space has six elements because there are six
possible outcomes that could occur when we roll a die once.
a. The probability of getting a 4

There is only one desired outcome of “rolling 4” on a die and there are six
possible outcomes. Using the formula, we get, P(4) = therefore the
probability of getting a 4 in rolling a die once is .

b. The probability of getting an odd number

There are three odd numbers in a die (1, 3, 5) and there are six possible
outcomes. Using the formula, we get, P(odd number) = = , therefore the
probability of getting an odd number in rolling a die once is .
c. The probability of getting a 7

Notice that there is no 7 since a die has only six faces containing the six
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Hence, it is impossible to get a 7. In this
case, the probability of getting a 7 is zero. Using the formula, we get, P(7)
= = 0, therefore the probability of getting a 7 in rolling a die once is 0.
Example 4 – Probability in Experiment Involving Standard
Deck of Cards

A card is drawn from a well-shuffled standard deck of 52 playing cards.

Find the probability of drawing:
a. the ‗2‘ of hearts
b. a red king
c. a club
d. a black face card
e. neither a heart nor a red king

Solution: In a standard deck of 52 playing cards, there are 4 suits namely:

spades ♠, hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣. Each suit has 13 cards such as
ace, king, queen, jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2. Spades and clubs are
black cards. Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards. The face cards
are King, Queen and Jack. There are a total of 12 face cards in the deck of
52 playing cards.
Example 5 - Probability in Experiments involving Marbles

In Ana‘s bag, there are 5 blue marbles, 4 red marbles, 1

green marble, and 2 black marbles. Suppose you draw 1
marble at random, calculate the probability of:
a)drawing a black marble.
b)not drawing a green marble.
c) drawing a blue or a red marble.

Solution:
In the problem, there are 5 blue marbles, 4 red marbles, 1
green marble and 2 black marbles, or a total of 12 marbles.
Hence, there are 12 possible outcomes when we draw 1
marble from Ana‘s bag.
Example 6 - Probability involving Numbers
The numbers 1 to 12 are written separately on pieces of paper.
Each paper is folded and placed in a box. A piece of paper with
a number is drawn from this box. Find the probability of
getting an
a. even number.
b. an odd number divisible by 3.

Solution:
Possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10,11 and 12.
Therefore, there are 12 elements of the sample space.
Example 7 – Other Probability Problems involving simple
events
a. In the word MATHEMATICS, what is the probability that the letter
chosen is a consonant if one letter is chosen at random?
b. Suppose that a fruit is chosen at random from a box containing 120
fruits which are apples, oranges and mangoes. If the probability of getting
an apple at random is , how many oranges and mangoes are there in the
box?

Solution:
In the problem, the probability of getting an apple is . The total number
of fruits in the box is 120. So, of 120 is 30, hence there are 30 apples.
Subtracting 30 from 120, the result is 90. Therefore, there are 90
oranges and mangoes in the box.
1. How do you describe simple events?

2. Is it difficult to determine an event if it is

simple or not? Why?

3. What is your basis in determining whether an

event is simple or not?
Practice Task
Directions: Read the given situation carefully and answer what is asked.

A. Given the spinner at the right, if it is spun once, compute the

probability that it will land on
1. a number 5
2. a number less than 8
3. an even number divisible by 4
B. From a standard deck of 52 playing cards, one card is
drawn at random, compute the probability of getting
1. an ace card
2. a non-face card
3. neither a spade nor a jack
C. Your bag contains 3 chocolate candies, 5 orange
candies and 7 durian candies. If one candy is drawn
at random from the bag, find the probability of
getting:
1. Durian candy
2. Chocolate candy
3. Durian or Orange candy