Probability

The document discusses the Poisson and normal distributions. [1] The Poisson distribution measures the likelihood of events occurring within a time interval when the average rate of occurrences is known. [2] It provides a formula to calculate the probability of a given number of occurrences. [3] Examples show how to use the distribution to find probabilities related to lions sightings, car accidents, and phone calls. The normal distribution is similarly discussed with properties, calculating probabilities using z-scores, and common applications.

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Probability

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Jia Ali

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Week#15

Probability & statistics

Fall-2022
Poisson distribution
• Pobability distribution that applies to occurence of a particular event
that occur over an interval.

• It is used for calculating the possibilities for an event with the average
rate of value.

• A Poisson distribution measures how many times an event is likely to

occur within “x” period of time.
Poisson distribution formula
• The probability that there are occurences in a given time interval is

is the number of successes to find

e is the base of the logarithm whose value is 2.718....

Example 1:
• Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What
is the probability that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next
1 day safari?

Solution
since 5 lions are seen per safari, on average
x=0,1,2, or 3; since we have to find the possibility that tourists will see
fewer than 4 lions.
continued...
Example 2:
• The average number of accidents at a level-crossing every year is 5.
Calculate the probability that there are exactly 3 accidents there this
year.

• Solution:
Example 4:

Telephone calls are being placed through a certain exchange at random

times on the average of four per minute. Determine the possibility that in
a 15 seconds interval, there are five or more calls.

Solution

P(X≥5)=1−P(X≤4)=1−[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)]
Example 5:
• Patients arrive randomly for treatment at the hospital. The average
number of patients arrive each hour is four. Find the probability that
exactly 2 patients will arrive in one hour.
Normal Distribution Properties

• In a normal distribution, the mean, median and mode are equal.(i.e., Mean =
Median= Mode).
• The normally distributed curve should be symmetric at the centre.
• There should be exactly half of the values are to the right of the centre and
exactly half of the values are to the left of the centre.
• The normal distribution should be defined by the mean and standard
deviation.
• The normal distribution curve must have only one peak. (i.e., Unimodal)
• The curve approaches the x-axis, but it never touches, and it extends farther
away from the mean.
Normal distribution-calculating
probabilities
• EXAMPLE: Scores on an exam are normally distributed with a mean of
65 & a standard deviation of 9. Find the percent of the scores
a) Less than 54
b) At least 80
c) Between 70 and 86
Example
• Find the z-score that a randomly selected thermometer will have a
reading less than 1.58o; if =1.
Applications