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1.2 Theoretical Probability

The document provides an overview of the MDM4U Grade 12 mathematics course and the expectations around probability and discrete sample spaces. It then summarizes a lesson on theoretical probability, which is the probability of an event calculated based on the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. The lesson defines key terms, provides examples of calculating theoretical probability and odds, and assigns a homework on probability questions.

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Gaganpreet Kaur
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117 views26 pages

1.2 Theoretical Probability

The document provides an overview of the MDM4U Grade 12 mathematics course and the expectations around probability and discrete sample spaces. It then summarizes a lesson on theoretical probability, which is the probability of an event calculated based on the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. The lesson defines key terms, provides examples of calculating theoretical probability and odds, and assigns a homework on probability questions.

Uploaded by

Gaganpreet Kaur
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Welcome to MDM4U!

Mathematics of Data Management


Grade 12
Ontario Curriculum Expectations
Overall Expectation(s):
● A1. solve problems involving the probability of an event or a combination of events for
discrete sample spaces.

Specific Expectations
● A1.5 recognize and describe an event as a set of outcomes and as a subset of a sample space, determine the
complement of an event, determine whether two or more events are mutually exclusive or non-mutually exclusive
and solve related probability problems using a variety of strategies.
● A1.3 determine the theoretical probability, P, of each outcome of a discrete sample space , recognize that the sum of
the probabilities of the outcomes is 1, recognize that the probabilities P form the probability distribution associated
with the sample space, and solve related problems.
1.2 Theoretical Probability
Learning Goals

1. Calculate theoretical probability


using sample spaces and tree-
diagrams.
2. Compare probability and odds.
Success Criteria
You will know that you are successful if you can:

1. Draw a tree diagram to help calculate the probability of an event occuring.


2. Define probability and odds.
Movie Clip from the Movie “21”-The Monty Hall Problem

When I was in our first year of university, my


professor presented us with this problem, and it
has been stuck in my head ever since - watch
the clip from the Movie “21 “- The Monty Hall
Problem.
1.2 Theoretical Probability

Tell me what you think the theoretical probability is, and provide
an example.
1.2 Theoretical Probability
In this lesson, you will learn how to calculate theoretical probability
and describe what it means.

1)Watch the videos and complete the activities.


2)Then read the textbook section and fill in the “Note Template” for
this lesson.
3)Finally, complete the homework questions from the textbook. When
you have finished, upload a copy of your note template and
homework questions into your course folder.
1.2 Theoretical Probability- Key Concepts
Minds On
Board games usually involve a combination of strategy and luck. Some board
games use a pair of standard dice.

• How many possible outcomes are there when rolling a pair of standard dice?

• Suppose you are playing a game involving the sum of two dice.Do you think all
sums are equally likely?

• Are there different outcomes that can produce a sum of 2?

• What about a sum of 7?


Terms from the Section
The theoretical probability of an outcome is one based on analysing all possible outcomes. Unlike
experimental probability, no experiment is carried out. All possible outcomes combined make up the
sample space. It is often useful to combine different outcomes that have something in common. An event
occurs when any of these similar outcomes occur. For example, the dice pictured above show a sum of
7. But this is not the only outcome that can result in a sum of 7. What are some others?

If all outcomes are equally likely, then the theoretical probability of an event,A, is a measure of the ratio of
the number of ways it can occur compared to the entire sample space. You can express this probability
as a fraction,decimal, or percent.
Example 1 from Text (page 18)
Solution
Solution
Solution
The Complement
Sometimes you need to know the probability that one event happens compared to all others. If one event
is A, then the event A′ is all of the possible outcomes not in A. This is known as the complement of A.
Because the sum of all probabilities in a sample space must equal 1, there is a useful relationship
between P(A) and P(A′).
Example 2
Solution
Odds
One application of probability, often used in sports, is odds. Odds can be expressed as the odds in favour
of an event occurring or the odds against an event occurring. In sports it is actually more common to give
the odds against something happening.

Sports analysts often make predictions about a player’s or team’s chances for winning a tournament or
championship. Often these predictions involve subjective probability based on the analyst’s
understanding of the player’s or team’s relative skill level.
Example 3
Solution
Video Lessons
Please watch the videos
1. Theoretical Probability 1, 2.
Theoretical Probability 2, 3.
Theoretical Probability 3
Answer the following question:
Yuri is playing a card game. He will lose if

he draws a face card (J, Q, or K) from a full

deck of standard playing cards.

What is the theoretical probability that

Yuri will win his first draw?


Answer:

77%
Solution:

Yuri loses if he gets a face card (J, Q, K)= 3 face cards * 4 suits= 12

All possible outcomes= 52 cards

P(Yuri Winning)= (52-12)/52= 40/52= 0.77


Answer the questions:
1) In your own words, describe “theoretical probability.”

2) What is the formula for theoretical probability?


Homework
Complete the following questions from the textbook textbook PDFT from pages
24-25: # 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 12, 14, 16.
Summary
This Peardeck follows Section 1.2 from the textbook.

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