Confidence Intervals

DSRT 734
UC – Summer 2020

1
 Outline

• 6.1 Confidence Intervals for the Mean (Large

Samples)
• 6.2 Confidence Intervals for the Mean (Small
Samples)
• 6.3 Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions
• 6.4 Confidence Intervals for Variance and Standard

Deviation

2
 Section 6.1

Confidence Intervals for the Mean

(Large Samples)

Larson/Farber 4th ed 3
 Section 6.1 Objectives

• Find a point estimate and a margin of error

• Construct and interpret confidence intervals for the
population mean
• Determine the minimum sample size required when
estimating μ

Larson/Farber 4th ed 4
 Point Estimate for Population μ

Point Estimate
• A single value estimate for a population parameter
• Most unbiased point estimate of the population mean
μ is the sample mean x

Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Mean: μ x

Larson/Farber 4th ed 5
 Example: Point Estimate for Population μ

Market researchers use the number of sentences per

advertisement as a measure of readability for magazine
advertisements. The following represents a random sample
of the number of sentences found in 50 advertisements.
Find a point estimate of the
population mean, . (Source: Journal of Advertising Research)

9 20 18 16 9 9 11 13 22 16 5 18 6 6 5 12 25
17 23 7 10 9 10 10 5 11 18 18 9 9 17 13 11 7
14 6 11 12 11 6 12 14 11 9 18 12 12 17 11 20

Larson/Farber 4th ed 6
 Solution: Point Estimate for Population μ

The sample mean of the data is

x 620
x   12.4
n 50

Your point estimate for the mean length of all magazine

advertisements is 12.4 sentences.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 7
 Interval Estimate
Interval estimate
• An interval, or range of values, used to estimate a population
parameter.

Point estimate
12.4
( • )

Interval estimate

How confident do we want to be that the interval estimate

contains the population mean μ?

Larson/Farber 4th ed 8
 Level of Confidence
Level of confidence c
• The probability that the interval estimate contains the
population parameter. c is the area under the
c standard normal curve
between the critical values.
½(1 – c) ½(1 – c)
z
-zc z=0 zc
Use the Standard Normal
Table to find the
Critical values corresponding z-scores.

The remaining area in the tails is 1 – c .

Larson/Farber 4th ed 9
 Level of Confidence

• If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we are 90%

confident that the interval contains the population mean μ.

c = 0.90

½(1 – c) = 0.05 ½(1 – c) = 0.05

z
zc
-zc = -1.645 z=0 zc =zc1.645

The corresponding z-scores are +1.645.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 10
 Sampling Error
Sampling error
• The difference between the point estimate and the
actual population parameter value.
• For μ:
 the sampling error is the difference x – μ
 μ is generally unknown
 x varies from sample to sample

Larson/Farber 4th ed 11
 Margin of Error
Margin of error
• The greatest possible distance between the point estimate
and the value of the parameter it is estimating for a given
level of confidence, c.
• Denoted by E.

σ When n  30, the sample

E  zcσ x  zc
n standard deviation, s, can
be used for .
• Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or error
tolerance.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 12
 Example: Finding the Margin of Error

Use the magazine advertisement data and a 95%

confidence level to find the margin of error for the
mean number of sentences in all magazine
advertisements. Assume the sample standard deviation
is about 5.0.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 13
 Solution: Finding the Margin of Error
• First find the critical values
0.95

0.025 0.025

z
-zc =  zc
-1.96 z=0 zczc= 1.96
95% of the area under the standard normal curve falls
within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean. (You
can approximate the distribution of the sample means
with a normal curve by the Central Limit Theorem,
because n ≥ 30.)
Larson/Farber 4th ed 14
 Solution: Finding the Margin of Error

 s You don’t know σ, but

E  zc  zc since n ≥ 30, you can
n n use s in place of σ.
5.0
 1.96 
50
 1.4

You are 95% confident that the margin of error for the
population mean is about 1.4 sentences.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 15
 Confidence Intervals for the Population
Mean
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ

• x  E    x  E where E  zc
n

• The probability that the confidence interval contains

μ is c.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 16
 Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ
Finding a Confidence Interval for a Population Mean
(n  30 or σ known with a normally distributed population)
In Words In Symbols
1. Find the sample statistics n and x
x
x. n
2. Specify , if known. Otherwise, if n
 30, find the sample standard
(x  x ) 2
deviation s and use it as an estimate s
n 1
for .

Larson/Farber 4th ed 17
 Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ
In Words In Symbols
3. Find the critical value zc that Use the Standard
corresponds to the given Normal Table.
level of confidence.
E  zc

4. Find the margin of error E. n
5. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x  E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x  E
confidence interval. Interval:
xE  xE

Larson/Farber 4th ed 18
 Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean
number of sentences in all magazine advertisements.

Solution: Recall x  12.4 and E = 1.4

Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
xE xE
 12.4  1.4  12.4  1.4
 11.0  13.8
11.0 < μ < 13.8
Larson/Farber 4th ed 19
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval

11.0 < μ < 13.8

11.0 12.4 13.8

( • )

With 95% confidence, you can say that the population

mean number of sentences is between 11.0 and 13.8.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 20
 Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
A college admissions director wishes to estimate the
mean age of all students currently enrolled. In a random
sample of 20 students, the mean age is found to be 22.9
years. From past studies, the standard deviation is
known to be 1.5 years, and the population is normally
distributed. Construct a 90% confidence interval of the
population mean age.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 21
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
• First find the critical values

c = 0.90

½(1 – c) = 0.05 ½(1 – c) = 0.05

z
zc
-zc = -1.645 z=0 zc =zc1.645

zc = 1.645

Larson/Farber 4th ed 22
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
• Margin of error:
 1.5
E  zc  1.645   0.6
n 20
• Confidence interval:
Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
xE xE
 22.9  0.6  22.9  0.6
 22.3  23.5
22.3 < μ < 23.5
Larson/Farber 4th ed 23
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known

22.3 < μ < 23.5

Point estimate
22.3 22.9 23.5
( • )
xE x xE

With 90% confidence, you can say that the mean age
of all the students is between 22.3 and 23.5 years.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 24
 Interpreting the Results

• μ is a fixed number. It is either in the confidence

interval or not.
• Incorrect: “There is a 90% probability that the actual
mean is in the interval (22.3, 23.5).”
• Correct: “If a large number of samples is collected
and a confidence interval is created for each sample,
approximately 90% of these intervals will contain μ.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 25
 Interpreting the Results

The horizontal segments

represent 90% confidence
intervals for different
samples of the same size.
In the long run, 9 of every
10 such intervals will
contain μ. μ

Larson/Farber 4th ed 26
 Sample Size

• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E,

the minimum sample size n needed to estimate the
population mean  is
2
 zc  
n 
 E 
• If  is unknown, you can estimate it using s provided
you have a preliminary sample with at least 30
members.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 27
 Example: Sample Size

You want to estimate the mean number of sentences in a

magazine advertisement. How many magazine advertisements
must be included in the sample if you want to be 95% confident
that the sample mean is within one sentence of the population
mean? Assume the sample standard deviation is about 5.0.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 28
 Solution: Sample Size

• First find the critical values

0.95

0.025 0.025

z
-zc = -1.96
zc z=0 zczc= 1.96

zc = 1.96

Larson/Farber 4th ed 29
 Solution: Sample Size

zc = 1.96   s = 5.0 E=1

2 2
 zc   1.96  5.0 
n     96.04
 E   1 

When necessary, round up to obtain a whole number.

You should include at least 97 magazine advertisements

in your sample.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 30
 Section 6.1 Summary

• Found a point estimate and a margin of error

• Constructed and interpreted confidence intervals for
the population mean
• Determined the minimum sample size required when
estimating μ

Larson/Farber 4th ed 31
 Section 6.2

Confidence Intervals for the Mean

(Small Samples)

Larson/Farber 4th ed 32
 Section 6.2 Objectives

• Interpret the t-distribution and use a t-distribution

table
• Construct confidence intervals when n < 30, the
population is normally distributed, and σ is unknown

Larson/Farber 4th ed 33
 The t-Distribution

• When the population standard deviation is unknown, the

sample size is less than 30, and the random variable x is
approximately normally distributed, it follows a t-
distribution.
x -
t
s
n
• Critical values of t are denoted by tc.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 34
 Properties of the t-Distribution
1. The t-distribution is bell shaped and symmetric
about the mean.
2. The t-distribution is a family of curves, each
determined by a parameter called the degrees of
freedom. The degrees of freedom are the number of
free choices left after a sample statistic such as isx
calculated. When you use a t-distribution to estimate
a population mean, the degrees of freedom are equal
to one less than the sample size.
 d.f. = n – 1 Degrees of freedom

Larson/Farber 4th ed 35
 Properties of the t-Distribution
3. The total area under a t-curve is 1 or 100%.
4. The mean, median, and mode of the t-distribution are equal to zero.
5. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution approaches the
normal distribution. After 30 d.f., the t-distribution is very close to the
standard normal z-distribution.

The tails in the t-

distribution are “thicker”
d.f. = 2 than those in the standard
d.f. = 5 normal distribution.
t
0
Standard normal curve
Larson/Farber 4th ed 36
 Example: Critical Values of t

Find the critical value tc for a 95% confidence when the

sample size is 15.
Solution: d.f. = n – 1 = 15 – 1 = 14
Table 5: t-Distribution

tc = 2.145

Larson/Farber 4th ed 37
 Solution: Critical Values of t

95% of the area under the t-distribution curve with 14

degrees of freedom lies between t = +2.145.

c = 0.95

t
-tc = -2.145 tc = 2.145

Larson/Farber 4th ed 38
 Confidence Intervals for the Population
Mean
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ
s
• x  E    x  E where E  tc
n

• The probability that the confidence interval contains

μ is c.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 39
 Confidence Intervals and t-Distributions

In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample x (x  x )2
x s
statistics n, x, and s. n n 1

2. Identify the degrees of d.f. = n – 1

freedom, the level of
confidence c, and the
critical value tc.

s
3. Find the margin of error E. E  tc
n

Larson/Farber 4th ed 40
 Confidence Intervals and t-Distributions

In Words In Symbols
4. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x  E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x  E
confidence interval. Interval:
xE  xE

Larson/Farber 4th ed 41
 Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
You randomly select 16 coffee shops and measure the
temperature of the coffee sold at each. The sample mean
temperature is 162.0ºF with a sample standard deviation
of 10.0ºF. Find the 95% confidence interval for the
mean temperature. Assume the temperatures are
approximately normally distributed.

Solution:
Use the t-distribution (n < 30, σ is unknown,
temperatures are approximately distributed.)

Larson/Farber 4th ed 42
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
• n =16, x = 162.0 s = 10.0 c = 0.95
• df = n – 1 = 16 – 1 = 15
• Critical Value

Table 5: t-Distribution

tc = 2.131

Larson/Farber 4th ed 43
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
• Margin of error:

s 10
E  tc
• Confidence interval:
 2.131  5.3
n 16

Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:

xE xE
 162  5.3  162  5.3
 156.7  167.3
156.7 < μ < 167.3
Larson/Farber 4th ed 44
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
• 156.7 < μ < 167.3

Point estimate
156.7 162.0 167.3
( •x )
xE xE

With 95% confidence, you can say that the mean

temperature of coffee sold is between 156.7ºF and
167.3ºF.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 45
 Normal or t-Distribution?
Is n  30? Yes
Use the normal distribution with
σ
No E  zc
n
Is the population normally, If  is unknown, use s instead.
or approximately No
normally, distributed? Cannot use the normal distribution
or the t-distribution.
Yes

Is  known? Yes
Use the normal distribution
No with E  z σ
c
n
Use the t-distribution with
s
E  tc
n
and n – 1 degrees of freedom.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 46
 Example: Normal or t-Distribution?
You randomly select 25 newly constructed houses. The
sample mean construction cost is $181,000 and the
population standard deviation is $28,000. Assuming
construction costs are normally distributed, should you
use the normal distribution, the t-distribution, or neither
to construct a 95% confidence interval for the
population mean construction cost?
Solution:
Use the normal distribution (the population is
normally distributed and the population standard
deviation is known)
Larson/Farber 4th ed 47
 Section 6.2 Summary

• Interpreted the t-distribution and used a t-distribution

table
• Constructed confidence intervals when n < 30, the
population is normally distributed, and σ is unknown

Larson/Farber 4th ed 48
 Section 6.3

Confidence Intervals for Population

Proportions

Larson/Farber 4th ed 49
 Section 6.3 Objectives

• Find a point estimate for the population proportion

• Construct a confidence interval for a population
proportion
• Determine the minimum sample size required when
estimating a population proportion

Larson/Farber 4th ed 50
 Point Estimate for Population p

Population Proportion
• The probability of success in a single trial of a
binomial experiment.
• Denoted by p
Point Estimate for p
• The proportion of successes in a sample.
• Denoted by
x number of successes in sample
 pˆ  
n number in sample
 read as “p hat”
Larson/Farber 4th ed 51
 Point Estimate for Population p

Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Proportion: p p̂

Point Estimate for q, the proportion of failures

• Denoted by qˆ  1  pˆ
• Read as “q hat”

Larson/Farber 4th ed 52
 Example: Point Estimate for p

In a survey of 1219 U.S. adults, 354 said that their

favorite sport to watch is football. Find a point estimate
for the population proportion of U.S. adults who say
their favorite sport to watch is football. (Adapted from The
Harris Poll)

Solution: n = 1219 and x = 354

x 354
pˆ    0.290402  29.0%
n 1219

Larson/Farber 4th ed 53
 Confidence Intervals for p

A c-confidence interval for the population proportion p

• pq
ˆˆ
pˆ  E  p  pˆ  E where E  zc
n

•The probability that the confidence interval contains p is c.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 54
 Constructing Confidence Intervals for p

In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample statistics n and x.
2. Find the point estimate
x
p̂ .
3. Verify that the sampling distribution pˆ 
n
of can be approximated by the
normal distribution.
p̂ npˆ  5, nqˆ  5
4. Find the critical value zc that
corresponds to the given level of
confidence c.
Use the
Standard
Normal Table
Larson/Farber 4th ed 55
 Constructing Confidence Intervals for p

In Words In Symbols
pq
ˆˆ
5. Find the margin of error E. E  zc
n

6. Find the left and right Left endpoint: p̂  E

endpoints and form the Right endpoint: p̂  E
confidence interval. Interval:
pˆ  E  p  pˆ  E

Larson/Farber 4th ed 56
 Example: Confidence Interval for p

In a survey of 1219 U.S. adults, 354 said that their

favorite sport to watch is football. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of adults in the
United States who say that their favorite sport to watch
is football.
Solution: Recall pˆ  0.290402
qˆ  1  pˆ  1  0.290402  0.709598

Larson/Farber 4th ed 57
 Solution: Confidence Interval for p

• Verify the sampling distribution of p̂ can be

approximated by the normal distribution
npˆ  1219  0.290402  354  5
nqˆ  1219  0.709598  865  5
• Margin of error:
pq
ˆˆ (0.290402)  (0.709598)
E  zc  1.96  0.025
n 1219

Larson/Farber 4th ed 58
 Solution: Confidence Interval for p

• Confidence interval:
Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
pˆ  E pˆ  E
 0.29  0.025  0.29  0.025
 0.265  0.315
0.265 < p < 0.315

Larson/Farber 4th ed 59
 Solution: Confidence Interval for p

• 0.265 < p < 0.315

Point estimate
0.265 0.29 0.315
( • )
p̂  E p̂ p̂  E

With 95% confidence, you can say that the proportion

of adults who say football is their favorite sport is
between 26.5% and 31.5%.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 60
 Sample Size

• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E,

the minimum sample size n needed to estimate p is
2
 zc 
ˆ ˆ 
n  pq
E
• This formula assumes you have an estimate for p̂
and qˆ .
• If not, use pˆ  0.5 and qˆ  0.5.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 61
 Example: Sample Size

You are running a political campaign and wish to

estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of
registered voters who will vote for your candidate. Your
estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed if
1.no preliminary estimate is available.

Solution:
Because you do not have a preliminary estimate
for p̂ use pˆ  0.5 and qˆ  0.5.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 62
 Solution: Sample Size

• c = 0.95 zc = 1.96 E = 0.03

2 2
 zc   1.96 
ˆ ˆ    (0.5)(0.5) 
n  pq   1067.11
E  0.03 

Round up to the nearest whole number.

With no preliminary estimate, the minimum sample

size should be at least 1068 voters.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 63
 Example: Sample Size

You are running a political campaign and wish to

estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of
registered voters who will vote for your candidate. Your
estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed if
2.a preliminary estimate gives pˆ  0.31.

Solution:
Use the preliminary estimate pˆ  0.31
qˆ  1  pˆ  1  0.31  0.69
Larson/Farber 4th ed 64
 Solution: Sample Size

• c = 0.95 zc = 1.96 E = 0.03

2 2
 zc   1.96 
ˆ ˆ    (0.31)(0.69) 
n  pq   913.02
E  0.03 

Round up to the nearest whole number.

With a preliminary estimate of pˆ  0.31, the

minimum sample size should be at least 914 voters.
Need a larger sample size if no preliminary estimate
is available.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 65
 Section 6.3 Summary

• Found a point estimate for the population proportion

• Constructed a confidence interval for a population
proportion
• Determined the minimum sample size required when
estimating a population proportion

Larson/Farber 4th ed 66
 Section 6.4

Confidence Intervals for Variance

and Standard Deviation

Larson/Farber 4th ed 67
 Section 6.4 Objectives

• Interpret the chi-square distribution and use a chi-

square distribution table
• Use the chi-square distribution to construct a
confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation

Larson/Farber 4th ed 68
 The Chi-Square Distribution

• The point estimate for 2 is s2

• The point estimate for  is s
• s2 is the most unbiased estimate for 2

Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Variance: σ2 s2
Standard deviation: σ s

Larson/Farber 4th ed 69
 The Chi-Square Distribution

• You can use the chi-square distribution to construct a

confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation.
• If the random variable x has a normal distribution,
then the distribution of
2 (n  1)s 2
 
σ2
forms a chi-square distribution for samples of any
size n > 1.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 70
 Properties of The Chi-Square Distribution

1. All chi-square values χ2 are greater than or equal to zero.

2. The chi-square distribution is a family of curves, each
determined by the degrees of freedom. To form a
confidence interval for 2, use the χ2-distribution with
degrees of freedom equal to one less than the sample
size.
• d.f. = n – 1 Degrees of freedom
3. The area under each curve of the chi-square distribution
equals one.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 71
 Properties of The Chi-Square Distribution

4. Chi-square distributions are positively skewed.

chi-square distributions
Larson/Farber 4th ed 72
 Critical Values for χ2
• There are two critical values for each level of
confidence.
• The value χ2R represents the right-tail critical value
• The value χ2L represents the left-tail critical value.

1 c c The area between

2 1 c the left and right
2 critical values is c.
χ2
 L2  R2

Larson/Farber 4th ed 73
 Example: Finding Critical Values for χ2
2 2

Find the critical values R and L for a 90% confidence

interval when the sample size is 20.

Solution:
•d.f. = n – 1 = 20 – 1 = 19 d.f.
• Each area in the table represents the region under the
chi-square curve to the right of the critical value.
1  c 1  0.90
• Area to the right of χ R = 2  2  0.05
2

1  c 1  0.90
• Area to the right of χ L = 2  2  0.95
2

Larson/Farber 4th ed 74
 Solution: Finding Critical Values for χ2
Table 6: χ2-Distribution

 R2  30.144  L2  10.117

90% of the area under the curve lies between 10.117 and
30.144
Larson/Farber 4th ed 75
 Confidence Intervals for 2 and 

Confidence Interval for 2:

(n  1)s 2 2 (n  1) s 2
• 2  σ 
R  L2
Confidence Interval for :
(n  1)s 2 (n  1)s 2
• 2 σ 
R  L2

• The probability that the confidence intervals contain

σ2 or σ is c.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 76
 Confidence Intervals for 2 and 
In Words In Symbols
1. Verify that the population has a
normal distribution.
2. Identify the sample statistic n and d.f. = n – 1
the degrees of freedom.
2
( x  x )
3. Find the point estimate s2. s2 
n 1
4. Find the critical value χ2R and χ2L
that correspond to the given level of Use Table 6 in
confidence c. Appendix B

Larson/Farber 4th ed 77
 Confidence Intervals for 2 and 
In Words In Symbols
5. Find the left and right endpoints
and form the confidence interval (n  1)s 2 2 (n  1) s 2
2  σ 
for the population variance. R  L2
6. Find the confidence interval for the
population standard deviation by
taking the square root of each
endpoint.
(n  1)s 2 (n  1)s 2
2 σ 
R  L2

Larson/Farber 4th ed 78
 Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
You randomly select and weigh 30 samples of an allergy
medicine. The sample standard deviation is 1.20
milligrams. Assuming the weights are normally
distributed, construct 99% confidence intervals for the
population variance and standard deviation.

Solution:
•d.f. = n – 1 = 30 – 1 = 29 d.f.

Larson/Farber 4th ed 79
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval

1  c 1  0.99
• Area to the right of χ R = 2  2  0.005
2

1  c 1  0.99
• Area to the right of χ L = 2  2  0.995
2

• The critical values are

χ2R = 52.336 and χ2L = 13.121

Larson/Farber 4th ed 80
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Confidence Interval for 2:
(n  1)s 2 (30  1)(1.20) 2
Left endpoint: 2 
52.336
 0.80
R

2 2
Right endpoint: (n  1)s (30  1)(1.20)
  3.18
L2 13.121

0.80 < σ2 < 3.18

With 99% confidence you can say that the population
variance is between 0.80 and 3.18 milligrams.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 81
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Confidence Interval for :
(n  1)s 2 (n  1)s 2
2 σ  2
R L

(30  1)(1.20) 2 (30  1)(1.20) 2

 
52.336 13.121

0.89 < σ < 1.78

With 99% confidence you can say that the population
standard deviation is between 0.89 and1.78 milligrams.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 82
 Section 6.4 Summary

• Interpreted the chi-square distribution and used a chi-

square distribution table
• Used the chi-square distribution to construct a
confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation

Larson/Farber 4th ed 83