MATRIKULASI

STATISTIK
Paulina
STIE IBS
AGENDA
Pre Test​
Descriptive Analysis : Central Tendencies and Dispersion
​Descriptive Analysis : Displaying and Exploring Data
Probability : Basic Concepts
​Probability Distribution : Discrete and Continous
Sampling Distribution
Inferential Statistics : Introduction
Hypothesis Testing
Post Test
INTRODUCTION 3

Data and Statistics

 Applications in Business and Economics
1. Public accounting firms use statistical sampling procedures when conducting
audits for their clients.
2. Economists use statistical information in making forecasts about the future
of the economy or some aspect of it.
3. Electronic point-of-sale scanners at retail checkout counters are used to
collect data for a variety of marketing research applications.
4. A variety of statistical quality control charts are used to monitor the output
of a production process
5. Financial advisors use price-earnings ratios and dividend yields to guide
their investment recommendations
Data and Data Sets
DATA DATA SET
 Data are the facts and The data collected in a
figures collected, particular study are
summarized, analyzed, referred to as the data set
and interpreted
 Data, Data Sets,
Elements, Variables, and Observations
Observation Variables
Element
Names Stock Annual Earn/
Company Exchange Sales($M) Share($)

Dataram NQ 73.10 0.86

EnergySouth N 74.00 1.67
Keystone N 365.70 0.86
LandCare NQ 111.40 0.33
Psychemedics N 17.60 0.13

Data Set
Scales of measurement include:
Nominal Interval

SCALES OF
Ordinal Ratio

MEASUREMENT
The scale determines the amount of information
contained in the data.

The scale indicates the data summarization and

statistical analyses that are most appropriate.
 Scales of Measurement 7

NOMINAL ORDINAL INTERVAL RASIO

Data are labels or The data have the The data have the The data have all the
names used to properties of nominal properties of ordinal properties of interval data
identify an data and data, and the interval and the ratio of two
values is meaningful.
attribute of the the order or rank of between observations is
element. the data is meaningful. expressed in terms of a
Variables such as
fixed unit of measure. distance, height,
A nonnumeric A nonnumeric label or weight, and time use
Interval data are always the ratio scale.
label or numeric numeric code may be
numeric.
code may be used used
This scale must
contain a zero value
that indicates that
nothing exists for the
variable at the zero
point
Qualitative and Quantitative Data 8

Qualitative Quantitative
• Data can be further classified • Labels or names used to identify
as being qualitative or an attribute of each element
quantitative.
• Often referred to as categorical
• The statistical analysis that is data
appropriate depends on
whether the data for the • Use either the nominal or
variable are qualitative or ordinal scale of measurement
quantitative.
• Can be either numeric or
• In general, there are more nonnumeric
alternatives for statistical
analysis when the data are • Appropriate statistical analyses
quantitative. are rather limited
Cross-Sectional Data
Cross-sectional data are collected at the same or
approximately the same point in time.

Example: data detailing the number of building

permits issued in June 2007 in each of the counties
of Ohio

Time Series Data

 Scales of Measurement

Data

Qualitative Quantitative

Numerical Non-numerical Numerical

Nominal Ordinal Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS:
TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
PRESENTATIONS
 Summarizing Qualitative Data
 Summarizing Quantitative Data
SUMMARIZING QUALITATIVE DATA
 Frequency Distribution
 Relative Frequency Distribution
 Percent Frequency Distribution
 Bar Graphs
 Pie Charts
 Frequency Distribution

A frequency distribution is a tabular summary of

data showing the frequency (or number) of items
in each of several non-overlapping classes.

The objective is to provide insights about the data

that cannot be quickly obtained by looking only at
the original data.
EXAMPLE: MARADA INN
Guests staying at Marada Inn were asked to rate the quality of their
accommodations as being excellent, above average, average, below
average, or poor. The ratings provided by a sample of 20 guests
are:

Below Average Average Above Average

Above Average Above Average Above Average
Above Average Below Average Below Average
Average Poor Poor
Above Average Excellent Above Average
Average Above Average Average
Above Average Average
 Frequency Distribution

Rating Frequency
Poor 2
Below Average 3
Average 5
Above Average 9
Excellent 1
Total 20
 Relative Frequency Distribution

The relative frequency of a class is the fraction or

proportion of the total number of data items
belonging to the class.

A relative frequency distribution is a tabular

summary of a set of data showing the relative
frequency for each class.
PERCENT FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION

The percent frequency of a class is the relative

frequency multiplied by 100.

A percent frequency distribution is a tabular

summary of a set of data showing the percent
frequency for each class.
 Relative Frequency and
Percent Frequency Distributions

Relative Percent
Rating Frequency Frequency
Poor .10 10
Below Average .15 15
Average .25 25 .10(100) = 10
Above Average .45 45
Excellent .05 5
Total 1.00 100

1/20 = .05
BAR GRAPH
 A bar graph is a graphical device for depicting
qualitative data.
 On one axis (usually the horizontal axis), we specify
the labels that are used for each of the classes.
 A frequency, relative frequency, or percent frequency
scale can be used for the other axis (usually the
vertical axis).
 Using a bar of fixed width drawn above each class
label, we extend the height appropriately.
 The bars are separated to emphasize the fact that each
class is a separate category.
 Bar Graph

Marada Inn Quality Ratings

10
9
8
Frequency 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Rating
Poor Below Average Above Excellent
Average Average
PIE CHART
 The pie chart is a commonly used graphical device
for presenting relative frequency distributions for
qualitative data.
 First draw a circle; then use the relative
frequencies to subdivide the circle
into sectors that correspond to the
relative frequency for each class.
 Since there are 360 degrees in a circle,
a class with a relative frequency of .25 would
consume .25(360) = 90 degrees of the circle.
 Pie Chart

Marada Inn Quality Ratings

Excellent
5%
Poor
10%
Below
Average
Above 15%
Average
45%
Average
25%
SUMMARIZING QUANTITATIVE
DATA  Frequency Distribution
 Relative Frequency Distribution
 Percent Frequency Distribution
 Histogram
 Cumulative Distributions
 Ogive
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
 Guidelines for Selecting Width of Classes
• Use classes of equal width.
• Approximate Class Width =
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS:
NUMERICAL MEASURES

 Measures of Location
 Measures of Variability
MEASURES OF LOCATION
 Mean
If the measures are computed
 Median
for data from a sample,
 Mode they are called sample statistics.
 Percentiles
 Quartiles If the measures are computed
for data from a population,
they are called population parameters.

A sample statistic is referred to

as the point estimator of the
corresponding population parameter.
 Variance

The variance is the average of the squared

differences between each data value and the mean.

The variance is computed as follows:

for a for a
sample population
 Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is computed as follows:

for a for a
sample population
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
The coefficient of variation indicates how large the
standard deviation is in relation to the mean.

The coefficient of variation is computed as follows:

for a for a
sample population
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Experiments, Counting Rules,
and Assigning Probabilities
Events and Their Probability
Some Basic Relationships
of Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes’ Theorem
PROBABILITY AS A NUMERICAL MEASURE
OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE

Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence

0 .5 1
Probability:

The event The occurrence The event

is very of the event is is almost
unlikely just as likely as certain
to occur. it is unlikely. to occur.
AN EXPERIMENT AND ITS SAMPLE
SPACE
An experiment is any process that generates
well-defined outcomes.

The sample space for an experiment is the set of

all experimental outcomes.

An experimental outcome is also called a sample

point.
COUNTING RULE FOR COMBINATIONS
A second useful counting rule enables us to count the number of
experimental outcomes when n objects are to be selected from a set of
N objects.

Number of Combinations of N Objects Taken n at a Time

where: N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)

n! = n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1
 Counting Rule for Permutations

A third useful counting rule enables us to count the

number of experimental outcomes when n objects are
to be selected from a set of N objects, where the order
of selection is important.

Number of Permutations of N Objects Taken n at a Time

where: N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)

n! = n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1
ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption
of equally likely outcomes

Relative Frequency Method

Assigning probabilities based on experimentation
or historical data

Subjective Method
Assigning probabilities based on judgment
RELATIVE FREQUENCY METHOD
Example: Lucas Tool Rental
Lucas Tool Rental would like to assign
probabilities to the number of car polishers
it rents each day. Office records show the following
frequencies of daily rentals for the last 40 days.

Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days
0 4
1 6
2 18
3 10
4 2
RELATIVE FREQUENCY METHOD
Each probability assignment is given by dividing the
frequency (number of days) by the total frequency (total
number of days).

Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days Probability
0 4 .10
1 6 .15
2 18 .45 4/40
3 10 .25
4 2 .05
40 1.00
SUBJECTIVE METHOD
 When economic conditions and a company’s
circumstances change rapidly it might be
inappropriate to assign probabilities based solely on
historical data.
 We can use any data available as well as our
experience and intuition, but ultimately a probability
value should express our degree of belief that the
experimental outcome will occur.
 The best probability estimates often are obtained by
combining the estimates from the classical or relative
frequency approach with the subjective estimate.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
 Random Variables
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Expected Value and Variance
 Binomial Probability Distribution
 Poisson Probability Distribution
 Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution

.40

.30

.20

.10

0 1 2 3 4
EXPECTED VALUE AND VARIANCE
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
E(x) =  = xf(x)

The variance summarizes the variability in the

values of a random variable.

Var(x) =  2 = (x - )2f(x)

The standard deviation, , is defined as the positive

square root of the variance.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
 Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.

2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible

on each trial.

3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does

not change from trial to trial.
stationarity
4. The trials are independent. assumption
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Our interest is in the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.

We let x denote the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.
 Binomial Distribution

 Binomial Probability Function

Probability of a particular
Number of experimental sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials
 Poisson Distribution

A Poisson distributed random variable is often

useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space

It is a discrete random variable that may assume

an infinite sequence of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).
 Poisson Distribution

Examples of a Poisson distributed random variable:

the number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of

pine board

the number of vehicles arriving at a

toll booth in one hour
 Poisson Distribution

 Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment

1. The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.

2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any

interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
 Poisson Probability Function

where:
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an interval
 = mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
 CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
 Uniform Probability Distribution
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Exponential Probability Distribution

f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)

f (x) Normal

x
x

x
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
 A continuous random variable can assume any value
in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
 It is not possible to talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a particular value.
 Instead, we talk about the probability of the random
variable assuming a value within a given interval.
NORMAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

 The normal probability distribution is the most

• important distribution for describing a continuous
• random variable.
 It is widely used in statistical inference.
 Normal Probability Distribution

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:

Heights
of people
Scientific
measurements
 Normal Probability Distribution

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:

Test
scores
Amounts
of rainfall
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The distribution is symmetric; its skewness

measure is zero.

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The entire family of normal probability

distributions is defined by its mean m and its
standard deviation s .

Standard Deviation s

x
Mean m
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The highest point on the normal curve is at the

mean, which is also the median and mode.

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The mean can be any numerical value: negative,

zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 20
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The standard deviation determines the width of the

curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.

s = 15

s = 25

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the mean and
.5 to the right).

.5 .5
x
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The letter z is used to designate the standard

normal random variable.

s=1

z
0
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

We can think of z as a measure of the number of

standard deviations x is from .
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 1: Convert x to the standard normal distribution.

z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83

Step 2: Find the area under the standard normal

curve to the left of z = .83.

see next slide

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Cumulative Probability Table for

the Standard Normal Distribution

P(z
< .83)
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 3: Compute the area under the standard normal

curve to the right of z = .83.

P(z > .83) = 1 – P(z < .83)

= 1- .7967
= .2033

Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033

z
0 .83
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution Pep

Zone
If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability of a 5w-20
Motor Oil

stockout to be no more than .05, what should the reorder

point be?
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Solving for the Reorder Point

Area = .9500

Area = .0500

z
0 z.05
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

 Solving for the Reorder Point

Step 1: Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .05
in the right tail of the standard normal
distribution.

We look up the
complement of the
tail area (1 - .05 = .95)
THANK YOU
Paulina
[email protected]