Scribd
Upload
23 views

Lecture 1 - Unit-I - Introduction To Decision Science & Probability

The document provides information about a course on Decision Science and Probability taught at GL Bajaj Institute of Management and Research. It outlines the course objectives, which are to introduce students to operations research techniques, key concepts of decision science, and tools for analyzing and solving business problems. It also lists the expected course outcomes related to understanding fundamental concepts, applying decision-making skills under uncertainty, analyzing business decisions using decision science tools, and developing skills for effective critical decision-making. The document further details the pedagogy, assessment criteria, unit-wise content, recommended textbooks and readings, and includes examples of probability and decision theory concepts.

Uploaded by

SAJAL SRIVASTAVA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
23 views

Lecture 1 - Unit-I - Introduction To Decision Science & Probability

The document provides information about a course on Decision Science and Probability taught at GL Bajaj Institute of Management and Research. It outlines the course objectives, which are to introduce students to operations research techniques, key concepts of decision science, and tools for analyzing and solving business problems. It also lists the expected course outcomes related to understanding fundamental concepts, applying decision-making skills under uncertainty, analyzing business decisions using decision science tools, and developing skills for effective critical decision-making. The document further details the pedagogy, assessment criteria, unit-wise content, recommended textbooks and readings, and includes examples of probability and decision theory concepts.

Uploaded by

SAJAL SRIVASTAVA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 31

Created By: Vikram Kumar Sharma

Assistant Professor

GL BAJAJ INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND


RESEARCH
Plot No-2, Knowledge Park –III, Greater Noida
Subject: Decision Science
Code: PG-35
PGDM (BATCH: 2022-24, TERM: III)
Topic:
Introduction to Course
Introduction to Decision Science &
Probability
Course Objective

▰ To introduce the students to the principles of operations research


techniques and their applications in decision-making Students.
▰ It also aims at acquainting the students with key concepts and issues
of Operations Research.
▰ Apply various decisions making and optimization techniques in
solving problems pertaining to their respective areas of study.
▰ The emphasis will be on analytical skills and problem solving tools
to manage challenges in the organization.
Course Outcomes

Cos Statement of Course Outcomes

CO-1 To understand the fundamental concepts of Decision Science.

To apply the knowledge and skills necessary to formulate and implement


CO-2
business decisions under uncertainty.

To analyze and make business decisions using the tools of Decision


CO-3 Science.

CO-4 To develop a skill to make effective decisions critical business situations.


Pedagogy

▰ Lectures
▰ Decision Making
▰ Case studies
▰ Projects
▰ Team Presentations
▰ Experiential Exercises
▰ Assignments
▰ Quizzes
Assessment

Assessment CO 1 CO 2 CO 3 CO 4 Total Marks

Data Analysis Project    10   10

Assignments 10 10      20

Presentation   10     10

Mid Term Quiz 13.5 5  1.5   20

End Term
5 7 14 14 40
Examination

Grand Total 28.5 32 25.5 14 100


Unit wise Content

UNIT-1
Introduction to Decision Science
UNIT-2
Probability & Linear Programming
UNIT-3
Transportation and Assignment Problem
UNIT-4
Game Theory
UNIT-5
Sequencing Problem & Queuing Theory
Readings

 Text Books:
▰ Quantitative Techniques in Management, ND Vohra, McGraw Hill
Education, 4th edition, 2009.

Reference Books:
▰ Barry Render, RM Stair, ME Hanna and TN Badri (2009)
Quantitative Analysis for Management, 10th edition, Pearson
Prentice Hall.
Discussion

Decisions
?
Decision

▰ The One Word that makes a Good Manager –

Decisiveness
Discussion
Decision

▰ Something that you choose; a Choice.

▰ According to Cambridge Dictionary

“A choice that you make about something after thinking about


several possibilities.”
Discussion
Discussion
Discussion

Decision
Science
?
Decision Science

 ‘Decision Science’ is a collaborative approach involving


mathematical formulae, business tactics, technological applications
and behavioral sciences to help senior management make data driven
decisions.

 Decision Science is the collection of quantitative techniques used to


inform decision-making at the individual and population levels. It
includes decision analysis, risk analysis, cost-benefit and cost-
effectiveness analysis, constrained optimization, simulation
modeling, and behavioral decision theory, as well as parts of
operations research.
Discussion

Decision
Theory
?
Decision Theory

 ‘Decision Theory’ is a technique used for decision making in an


uncertain condition or situation. It provides a framework and
methodology for rational decision making when the outcomes are
uncertain.
Discussion

Probability

?
Probability

 Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event. There


are many real-life situations in which we may have to predict the
outcome of an event. We may be sure or not sure of the results of an
event. In such cases, we say that there is a probability of this event to
occur or not occur.

 Probability generally has great applications in games, in business to


make probability-based predictions, and also probability has
extensive applications in this new area of artificial intelligence.
Probability
Probability
Addition Theorem of Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Multiplication Theorem of Probability
Bayes Theorem
Numericals

1. A bag I contains 4 white and 6 black balls while another Bag II


contains 4 white and 3 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one
of the bags, and it is found to be black. Find the probability that it was
drawn from Bag I.

2. A man is known to speak the truth 2 out of 3 times. He throws a die


and reports that the number obtained is a four. Find the probability that
the number obtained is actually a four.
Numericals

3. Of the students in the college, 60% of the students reside in the hostel and 40% of
the students are day scholars. Previous year results report that 30% of all students who
stay in the hostel scored A Grade and 20% of day scholars scored A grade. At the end of
the year, one student is chosen at random and found that he/she has an A grade. What is
the probability that the student is a hostelier? 

4. A bag contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its
colour is noted, and again the ball is returned to the bag. Also, 2
additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the bag. After that, the ball
is drawn at random from the bag. What is the probability that the second
ball drawn from the bag is red?
Thank You !!

You might also like