STAT – 835 Probability and Statistics

PROBABILITY
SET THEORY
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
Example; Set Theory
 The route used by a certain motorist in commuting to work
contains two intersections with traffic signals.
 The probability that he must stop at the first signal is 0.4,
 The analogous probability for the second signal is 0.5, and
 The probability that he must stop at at least one of the two
signals is 0.6.

What is the probability that he must stop

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Example; Set Theory
 Theroute used by a certain motorist in commuting to work
contains two intersections with traffic signals.
P(A) = The probability that he must stop at the first
signal is 0.4,
P(B) = The analogous probability for the second signal is
0.5, and
P(A È B) = The probability that he must stop at at
least one of the two signals is 0.6.
What is the probability that he must stop at both
signals?
P(A Ç B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A È B)
= 0.4 + 0.5 - 0.6 = 0.3
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Example; Set Theory
 The route used by a certain motorist in commuting to work
contains two intersections with traffic signals.
A = The probability that he must stop at the first signal is
0.4,
B = The analogous probability for the second signal is
0.5, and
P(A È B) = The probability that he must stop at at
least one of the two signals is 0.6.
What is the probability that he must stop at the first
signal but not at the second one?
P(A Ç B¢) = P(A) - P(A Ç B)
= 0.4 - 0.3 = 0.1
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Example; Set Theory
 The route used by a certain motorist in commuting to work
contains two intersections with traffic signals.
A = The probability that he must stop at the first signal is
0.4,
B = The analogous probability for the second signal is
0.5, and
P(A È B) = The probability that he must stop at at
least one of the two signals is 0.6.
What is the probability that he must stop at exactly
one signal?
P(exactly one) = P(A È B) - P(A Ç B)
= 0.6 - 0.3 = 0.3

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Counting Techniques
 
General Mutiplication Rule
Tree Diagrams
Permutations
Combinations

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Counting Techniques
 When calculating probabilities, we need to know
the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
 When the various outcomes of an experiment are
equally likely (the same probability is assigned to
each simple event), the task of computing
probabilities reduces to counting.
 If N is the number of outcomes in a sample space
and N(A) is the number of outcomes contained in
an event A, then
 MULTIPLICATION/PRODUCT RULE
If an event can occur in n1 ways, and for each of
these n1 ways, a 2nd event can occur in n2 ways,
then the two events can occur in n1* n2 ways
together
i.e., the total number of possibilities = n1* n2

Similarly for three such events:

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 MULTIPLICATION/PRODUCT RULE
Example-1:
 Possibilities of outcomes of two coin flips. For
one coin flip possibilities = 2.
 Total possible outcomes are 2 x 2 = 4

Example-2:
 For 2 Pants, 3 Shirts and 2 shoes pairs, the
possible sets of dresses are
2 x 3 x 2 =12 sets of dresses

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Tree Diagram Example
Sets of Dresses
2 Pants
3 Shirts

2 Pairs of Shoes

Total possible sets of dresses

2
3

6
7

9
10

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Permutations
Sometimes we are concerned with how
many ways a group of objects can be
arranged
__________.
•How many ways to arrange books on a shelf
•How many ways a group of people can stand in
line
•How many ways to scramble a word’s letters
 Permutation
 Any ordered sequence of k objects taken
from a set of n distinct objects (without
replacement) is called a permutation of size k
of the objects.
 The number of permutations of size k that
can be constructed from the n distinct objects
is denoted by Pk,n
n!
Pk , n 
( n  k )!
 Without replacement means that an object
can appear only once in a particular
permutation/set. 14
 Permutation: Example
 There are ten teaching assistants available for grading
papers in a particular course. The paper consists of four
questions, and the professor wishes to select a different
assistant to grade each question (only one assistant per
question).
 In how many ways can assistants be chosen to grade the
exam?
 Here n = the number of assistants = 10 and
 k = the number of questions = 4.
 The number of different grading assignments is then

P4,10 = 10! / (10 – 4)! = 10! / 06!

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Combinations
Sometimes, we are only concerned with
selection of a group of objects and not the order in
which they are selected.
Combination is an “unordered” arrangement of k
distinct objects taken from a set of n distinct objects
The number of ways of ordering n distinct objects
taken k at a time is represented as C k,n

nn n!
Ck , n  C    
k
 k  k!(n  k )!
 Permutation vs. Combination
Order matters  Permutation
Order doesn’t matter  Combination

Pk ,n n!
Ck , n  
k! k! (n  k )!
 Permutation vs. Combination
The number of combinations of size k from
a particular set is smaller than the number of
permutations
When order is disregarded, a number of
permutations correspond to the same
combination.
Pk ,n n!
Ck ,n  
k! k! (n  k )!
 Six permutations (A, B, C), (A, C, B), (B, A, C),
(B, C, A), (C, A, B), and (C, B, A) are equivalent to the a
single combination (A, B, C).
Combinations: Example
4 students from a class of 11 are supposed to work as
a team/ syndicate on a project.

 How many distinct 4-student teams can be chosen?

11  11! 11 10  9  8

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Combinations: Example
 Suppose that 3 cars in a production run of 40 are
defective.
 A sample of 4 is to be selected for checking of defects.
Questions:
 How many different samples can be chosen?
 How many samples will contain exactly one
defective car?
 What is the probability that a randomly chosen
sample will contain exactly one defective car?
 How many samples will contain at least one
defective car?

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Combinations: Example
 Suppose that 3 cars in a production run of 40 are
defective.
 A sample of 4 is to be selected for checking of defects.
Questions:
 How many different samples can be chosen?

 40  40! 40!
C4, 40     
 4  4! (40  4)! 4!.36!
40.39.38.37
  91390
4.3.2.1
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 Examples on Combinations
2) How many samples will contain exactly one defective
car?
Think of selecting a sample as a 2-step process:
Step 1: Choose the defective cars;
Step 2: Choose the good cars.
There are C1,3 ways to choose 1 defective car.
There are C3,37 ways to choose 3 good cars.
By the multiplication rule, the number of samples
containing exactly 1 defective car is
C1,3 x C3,37 = 3∙(37∙36∙35) / (3∙2∙1) = 23,310
3) What is the probability that a randomly chosen
sample will contain exactly one defective car?
The probability = 23,310 / 91,390 = 0.255
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 Examples on Combinations
4) How many samples will contain at least one defective car?
# of samples with ≥1 (at least one ) defective cars =
(all possible samples) – (# of samples with no defective cars)
and, # of samples with no defective cars)
= (# of samples with only good cars)
= C4,37 = 66,045
Thus, # of samples with ≥1 (at least one ) defective cars
= 91,390 – 66,045 = 25,345

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 Examples on Combinations
4) How many samples will contain at least one defective car?
# of samples with ≥1 defective cars
= 91,390 – 66,045 = 25,345

5) What is the probability that a randomly chosen sample will

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Permutation: Example
Bar coding based on two alphabets from A,B,C,D,E
and three digits from 0,1,2,3,4,5
Example: AC-145
No repetitions: a digit or a number can appear only
once in bar code.
Total number of bar code possibilities
= P2,5 x P3,6
= (5!/3!) x (6!/3!)
= (5x4) x (6x5x4)
= 2400

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Permutation: Example
How many bar codes will have letters upto C and digits
upto 3
Total number of bar code possibilities
= P2,3 x P3,4
= (3!/1!) x (4!/1!)
= (3x2) x (4x3x2)
= 144

 Probability that randomly a selected bar code will have

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