THE PROBABILITY

THEORY
Counting Techniques
Probability is primarily concerned with predicting chances, especially
the occurrence of an event. But before predictions can be made, you
should first know how to determine the outcomes of an event.
Any probability activity, called a random experiment, gives results
which are known as outcomes. For instance, when you toss a fair coin,
there are always two possible outcomes – a head and a tail. In some
cases, the number of outcomes is very small that you can determine it
by systematic listing. However, there are also cases when the situation
becomes complex you need to employ a more organized strategy.
Tree Diagram
One strategy that is very useful in determining
the number of outcomes of an experiment is by
drawing a tree diagram. A tree diagram is a
graphic organizer that makes use of branching
connecting lines to represent a certain
relationship between events. For example we
figure out the outcome when tossing two coins.
Example
You are driving down McArthur Highway where you
encounter two intersection. In each intersection,
there are traffic lights installed displaying green,
red, and yellow lights. How many different
sequences of lights would you encounter after
passing through the two intersections? Draw a tree
diagram to illustrate the number of possible
outcomes.
Example
If you have 3 different colored balls (green,
yellow and red), what are the possible
outcomes when drawing the three balls?
Create a tree diagram to see the possible
outcomes.
Fundamental Counting Principle
While the tree diagram could be a helpful way to organize the
counting of the possible outcomes in an experiment, it might
prove to be inconvenient when many variables are considered in
the process. For example, would you have the necessary amount
of patience to draw a tree diagram in which there are 2000
possible outcomes?
The good thing is that the fundamental principle of counting may
be generalized from tree diagrams. Study the following situations
illustrated with three diagrams and come up with a generalized
rule for counting the total number of outcomes in an experiment.
Examples.

A. Tossing Three Coins: In tossing

three coins, there are two possible
outcomes (H or T) for the first coin,
two outcomes for the second coin,
and two outcomes for the third coin.
Examples.

B. Picking a card: If you are dealt with a

hand of cards containing 3 aces, 2 kings
and 1 queen. And you pick three cards at
random (containing an ace, king, and a
queen), how many total possible
outcomes?
Examples.

C. Outfit Selection: Suppose you

have 3 tops, 3 pairs of pants, and 2
pairs of shoes. How many
different outfits can be made?
Experiment Number of Number of Number of Total
Ways (First Ways Ways (Third number of
Choice) (Second Choice Different
Choice) Outcomes

A 2 2 2 2x2x2=8

B 3 2 1 3x2x1=6

C 3 3 2 3 x 3 x 3 = 18
The three situations show that if one
choice can be made in ways, the second
choice in ways, and the third in ways,
then you can end up with , different
choices. This demonstrates the
fundamental counting principle and it can
be generalized for situations requiring
more than two or three choices.
Fundamental Counting Principle: Multiplication
Rule
If k choices are made in which there are ways for
the first choice, ways for the second choice, ways
for the third, and so on, then there are … × number
of possible outcomes.
Examples

When three dice are thrown, how

many possible outcomes are
possible?
Examples.
A fast-food restaurant has a meal special meal: 5$ for
a drink, sandwich, side item and dessert. The choices
are;
• Sandwich: Grilled chicken, All Beef Patty, Vegeburger
and Fish Fillet.
• Side: Regular Fries, Cheese Fries, Potato Wedges.
• Dessert: Chocolate Chip Cookie or Apple Pie
• Drink: Fanta, Dr. Pepper, Coke, Diet Coke, and Sprite
Examples.
For P1000, a convenience store offers a fixed price
menu option that allows you to choose a combo of
treats. You can only choose 1 of each kind. There are
5 kinds of drinks, 8 kinds of candies, 10 kinds of
chocolates and 3 kinds of crackers. How many
possible combo worth P1000 can be made?
Examples.
A four-digit number can be formed using the digits 2,
4, 5, 6, and 9 such that no digit can be used more than
once.
a. How many distinct four-digit numbers can be
formed?
b. How many four-digit even numbers can be
formed.
c. How many four-digit odd numbers can be formed?
Examples.
A five-digit number can be formed using the digits 1,
3, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 0 such that no digit can be used more
than once.
a. How many distinct five-digit numbers can be
formed?
b. How many five-digit even numbers can be formed.
c. How many five-digit odd numbers can be formed?
 Although the multiplication rule is a helpful
counting strategy, it must be used appropriately.
It should not be used when dealing with events
that cannot happen simultaneously. These events
are also known as mutually exclusive events or
disjoint sets. For example, getting a three or
getting a four in a single roll of a die are mutually
exclusive events. For these cases, the addition
rule of the counting principle is more appropriate.
Fundamental Counting Principle: Addition Rule
If a choices can be made in ways and another in
ways such that the choices cannot be made at the
same time, then the total number of possible
outcomes is .
Examples.
A student, who is either a junior or a
senior, is to be chosen as the school’s
representative for an extemporaneous
speech contest. If there are 50 juniors and
70 seniors, in how many ways can the
selection be done?
Examples.
Suppose there are 5 chicken
dishes and 8 beef dishes.
How many selections does
a customer have?
Examples.
Suppose a bakery has a selection of
20 different cupcakes, 10 different
donuts, and 15 different muffins. If
you are to select a tasty treat, how
many different choices of sweets can
you choose from?
Factorial Notation
Before you processed to the study of the
other counting techniques further, you need
to first understand a system of writing
products called factorial notation. The
expression n factorial is defined as the
product of all the positive integers less than or
equal to n. In symbols, it is written as n!. For
example, 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120
Definition of n!
The product of all the positive integers
from 1 to n is called n factorial. In symbols, .
Examples.
Evaluate the following factorial notations.
a. 3!
b. 6!
c. 8!

d. 0!
Examples.
Evaluate the following factorial notations.
a. 2! + 3!
b. 6! – 4!
c. 8! 2!
Permutation
Occasionally, you encounter certain
activities that involve arrangements of people
or objects such as the organization of home
furniture, placement of books on a shelf or
even positions of family members for a
photograph. In probability, the arrangement
of objects in a set in order is called
permutation.
Permutation
Situation that make use of permutation
include word formation (since changing the
order of the letters results in a different word)
and choosing the officers for a school club.
Note that in these situations, the order in
which the objects are taken is important.
Permutation
Studying the previous examples, a
generalization can be made about the
number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time. Thus, giving us
the formula;
Permutation
In some cases, all the objects in the set
are taken at single time. The formula for
such cases may be derived from the
formula When , the formula becomes .
Since by property of factorials, 0! = 1, then .
Permutation

Permutations of n Distinct Objects

Taken r at a time;
Taken n at a time;
Examples.
In how many ways can you arrange 8
books on a shelf if
a. Only 5 books can fit a time?
b. All the 8 books can fit at a time?
Examples.
How many four-letter words can be
formed using the letters of the word
WOMAN?
Examples.
How many three-letter words can be
formed using the letters of the word
DERIVE?
Examples.
How many three-letter words can be
formed using the letters of the word
HEXAGON?
Permutation
Permutation with Repeated Elements
In some instances, you may encounter
permutation problems involving repeated
elements. You know that the letters of the word
COP may have 6 distinct permutations. Do you
think that the letters of the term COC will also
have 6 distinct permutations? By listing the
possible arrangements using tree diagram, you
have;
Permutation
Permutation with Repeated Elements
As you can see from the outcomes, there
are only 3 distinct permutations: COC, CCO,
and OCC. Similarly, for the letters of the term
LOLO, there are only 6 distinct permutations
– LOLO, LOOL, OLOL, OLLO, LLOO, and
OOLL. The following table summarizes the
observations from the two examples.
Permutation
Permutation with Repeated Elements
TERM n! Breakdown of Number of Distinct
Elements Permutations

COC 3! = 6 C = 2, O = 1 3

LOLO 4! = 24 L = 2, O = 2 6
Permutation
Permutation with Repeated Elements
The total number of permutation of n objects
of which are similar, are similar, … are similar is
given by the expression where
Examples.
How many distinct permutations are
there for the word PHILIPPINES?
Examples.
How many distinct permutations are
there for the word MISSISSIPPI?
Examples.
How many distinct permutations are
there for the word MATHEMATICS?
Examples.
How many distinct permutations are
there for the word REFERENCE?
Permutation
Circular Permutations
You have already learned that the number of distinct
permutations of n objects is equivalent to n!.
However, note that this formula is only true for
linear permutations, that is, the objects are arranged
in a line or in a row. If the objects are arranged in a
circle, the formula becomes slightly different
considering the element rotation in a circle.
For example, figure 1.4 shows the possible ways to
arrange three objects in a circle.

1 1 2 2 3 3

3 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 1
 For example, figure 1.4 shows the possible ways to
arrange three objects in a circle.

1 1 1 1 1 1

4 2 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 4 2 4

3 4 2 4 2 3
Combination
Unlike permutations, there are certain selections
which do not consider the arrangement of the
objects; thus, order is not important. These
unordered selections are called combinations. A
common example is choosing a group of students
to represent the school in a national academic quiz
bee. The arrangements of the selected students
{Angelo, Kyle, and Miguel} and {Miguel, Angelo,
and Kyle} refer to the same group.
Combination
To illustrate the rule in determining the total
number of combinations, assume that you
choose a committee of 3 members out of 5
persons – John, Alice, Jude, Louie, and Angie.
There are 10 possible committees as shown in
the table.
Combination
John, Alice, Jude John, Louie, Angie

John, Alice, Louie Alice, Jude, Louie

John, Alice, Angie Alice, Jude, Angie

John, Jude, Louie Alice, Louie, Angie

John, Jude, Angie Jude, Louie, Angie

Combination
Combination of n Objects Taken r at a Time
If a choice of several objects involves
selection that regard order as insignificant,
the total number of selections, called
combination, is given by
Examples.
Four children are chosen from a class
of 30 for a survey. In how many ways
can this be done?
Examples.
In how many ways can a coach
choose 3 swimmers from among
seven swimmers?
Examples.
Six friends want to play enough
games of chess to be sure every one
plays everyone else. How many
games will they have to play?
Examples.
A committee consisting of 3 girls and
2 boys is to be chosen from a class
with 15 girls and 10 boys. How many
distinct committees are possible to
form?
Examples.
A committee consisting of 3 girls and
2 boys is to be chosen from a class
with 15 girls and 10 boys. How many
distinct committees are possible to
form?