Introduction to Probability

Basic Definitions
Random Experiment:
All possible outcomes can be defined in advance. And there is uncertainty about which
outcome will occur when the experiment is performed, such as tossing a coin.
Sample Space (S): It is the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
Example 1:
1) Tossing one fair coins :
S = {H, T}
2) Tossing two fair coins together:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Tossing fair coin three times:
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
4) Tossing fair coin n times or tossing n fair coins one time. sample space is
 Basic Definitions
Example 2:
1) Tossing one fair die : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2) Tossing two fair dice together:
 Basic Definitions

Recording the gender of children of three children families.

With b and g standing for boy and girl .

S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}

Drawing a card from a well-shuffled standard

deck of 52 cards. Denoting by C,D,H,
and S clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades,
respectively, by J,Q,K Jack, Queen, and King,
and using 1 for aces
 Basic Definitions
C. Event: An event A and B is a sub set of the sample space.
Event B is sub set of event A.

Example 3: If we toss a die one time: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Find the following events:
1. Score is less than 5 : 𝑨={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑,𝟒}
2. Score is even : 𝑩={𝟐,𝟒 ,𝟔}
3) Score is odd : 𝑪={𝟏, 𝟑,𝟓}
4)Score is even and less than 5 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩={𝟐,𝟒}
5)Score is even or less than 5 𝑨𝒐𝒓 𝑩={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑,𝟒,𝟔}
6) Score is not less than 5: 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝑨={𝟓, 𝟔 }
 Basic Definitions
Example 4: If we rolls two fair dice :

•Let D1 be the value rolled on  die 1.

•Let D2 be the value rolled on die 2.

1) the face-up value of the first one is 2

,,,,}
2) sum of two values is no greater than 5 :

{ }
(1 , 1 ) , (1 , 2 ) ,  ( 1 ,3 ) ,  ( 1 , 4 )  ,
𝐵=
( 2 ,1 ) , ( 2 , 2 ) ,  ( 2 , 3 ) , 
( 3 , 1 ) ,  ( 3 , 2 ) , 
( 4 ,1 )
Basic Rules of Probability:

Probability of event A:

𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑺
 As then


Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: For throwing coin three times,
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} N=8
1) Event A is two or more heads:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟒 𝟏
𝑨={ 𝑯𝑯𝑻 , 𝑯𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑯𝑯 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= 𝑵 ¿ 𝟖 = 𝟐
2) Event B is all tosses are the same:
𝒏( 𝑩) 𝟐 𝟏
𝑩= {𝑻𝑻𝑻 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=
𝑵
¿ =
𝟖 𝟒
Example 4: If balls are numbered from 1 to 15 and a ball is selected, what is the probability of:
 A: prime number greater than 5
𝑨={ 𝟕 , 𝟏𝟏,𝟏𝟑 } 𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟑 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟓
 B: odd number less than 11.
𝒏( 𝑩) 𝟓 𝟏
𝑩= {𝟏, 𝟑, 𝟓,𝟕, 𝟗 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟑
Basic Rules of Probability:
1) Intersection of Events:
The occurrence of event A and B (Both events occur)

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
2) Union of Events:
The occurrence of event A or B (At least one event)

𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩¿
) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )+𝑷 ( 𝑩 −) 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
3) Complementary of Event:
Complementary of event A is subset of S and does not belong to A.
′
𝑷(𝑨 ¿ ¿𝒄)=𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝑷 (𝑨 )=𝟏−𝑷 (𝑨)¿
4) The occurrence of only A and not B:
The occurrence of event A and not occurrence of B
¿ 𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )

5) The occurrence of only B and not A:

The occurrence of event B and not occurrence of A

Basic Rules of Probability:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑺
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 ( 𝑨) ≤ 𝟏

𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 )+ 𝑷 ( 𝑩) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
𝑷( 𝑨)=𝟏−𝑷 ( 𝑨)
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 1: A class contains 30 students grouped as follows:
  Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Find the probability of selecting:
Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
𝟏𝟔
one male 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) = Total 13 10 7 30
𝟑𝟎
𝟏𝟑
one student from Alex 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =
𝟑𝟎
13 𝟏𝟕
one student not from Alex 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴)¿ 1−
𝑐
¿
30 𝟑𝟎
𝟓
one male from Cairo (
𝑃 𝑀 ∩𝐶 = )
𝟑𝟎
one male or one student from Giza 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∪𝐺 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) +𝑃 ( 𝐺 ) − 𝑃 (𝑀 ∩ 𝐺)
16 +7 4 19
¿ − ¿
30 30 30 30
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
1. what is the probability that the student will pass both courses?
 Let passing math probability is
 Let passing English probability is
 Let passing at least course probability is
 Then the probability of passing both courses is

By using 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∪ 𝑬 )=𝑷 ( 𝑴 )+ 𝑷 ( 𝑬 ) − 𝑷 (𝑴 ∩ 𝑬)
𝟎 .𝟗=𝟎 . 𝟕𝟓+𝟎 .𝟖𝟓 − 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∩ 𝑬 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
2. The student fails Mathematics,
By using

3. The student pass English but he fails mathematics.,

By using
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
4. the probability of he passed in only one course.
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: Three students A, B and C are in a swimming race, A have twice as likely to win
as B and B is twice as likely to win as C , find the probability of winning of each one?

𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 ∗𝟐 𝒙 ¿ 𝟒 𝒙
𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝒙
Let then:
As total probability is equal to one then,
𝟒 𝒙 +𝟐 𝒙 + 𝒙 =𝟏 then
𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑪 ) =𝒙=
𝟕
𝟐
𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 )=𝟐 𝒙=
𝟕
𝟒
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=4 x=
𝟕
 Types of events
 Mutual Exclusive Events:
Both A and B cannot occur in the same time.
A and B are disjoint.

 A is subset of B

 Independent:
Independent events that event not affected by each other, which mean that the probability
of occurring of one event does not depend on the probability of the other event.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 (𝑩) 𝑷 (𝑪)
Example (5):

Solution:
a. If A and B are Mutual Exclusive Events
By using
1 1 1
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )    p  p
3 4 12
b. If A and B are Independent 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩)  
1 1 1 3 1 1
   p p  p  p
3 4 4 4 12 9
Example (5):

Solution:
c. If A is a subset of B
A  B  P ( A  B )  P ( A)
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A)

P( A  B)  P( B)
1
 p
3
 Example 6 :
Three men, and fire at a target. Suppose, , denote their probabilities of hitting the target.

A. Find the probability that they all hit the target

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) ¿ ⅙ ×¼ ×⅓ ¿ 𝟏/𝟕𝟐
B. Find the probability that they all miss the target
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩𝑪 )
𝒄 𝒄 𝒄
¿ ⅚ ×¾ ×⅔¿ 𝟑𝟎/𝟕𝟐=𝟓 /𝟏𝟐
C. Find the probability that only one of them hits the target.
( 𝒄
𝑷 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪
𝒄
) +𝑷 ( 𝑨
𝒄
∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪
𝒄
) +𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒄 ∩ 𝑩𝒄 ∩ 𝑪 )
¿ ( ⅙ × ¾× ⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¼ × ⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¾ ×⅓ ) ¿𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟒
D. Find the probability that only two of them hits the target.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 )
𝒄 𝒄 𝒄

¿ ( ⅙ × ¼ ×⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¼ × ⅓ ) + ( ⅙ × ¾ ×⅓ ) ¿𝟎.𝟓𝟔𝟕
E. Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵∪ 𝐶 ) ¿ 1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )
𝑐 𝑐 𝑐
¿ 𝟎 .𝟓𝟖