Dr. S. & S. S.

Ghandhy College of Engineering &

Technology, Surat.
Diploma in Civil Engineering

5th Semester

Project-1 (3350609)

Topic: Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope
method: A Case Study of Dang and Valsad district of Gujarat

Guide: Prepared By:

Prof. . Dipesh C. Rajput Batch-1
Lecturer Civil Engineering Department Div. A
Dr. S. & S. S. Ghandhy College of Engineering & (206120306001 to 206120306018)
Technology, Surat.
Content

INTRODUCTION NEED OF STUDY OBJECTIVE LITERATURE STUDY AREA AND

REVIEW DATA COLLECTION

METHODOLOGY RESULT AND CONCLUSION

DISCUSSION
 Introduction
• Temperature is one of the most significant climate variables responsible for global
warming. In the last few decades researcher on climate change has indicated an increase in
greenhouse gas concentration thereby warming earth’s atmosphere both locally and
globally.

• Moreover, the net impact of climate change in India showed a net excess of temperature
and a net deficit of rainfall.

• The trend analysis of temperature data from 1941-2012 for 125 ground-based weather
stations across the country was found to follow a positive trend of 0.44 °C /100 years, 0.51
°C /100 years and 0.19 °C /100 years for average, maximum and minimum temperatures
respectively.
 Introduction Continue…
• One of the most important and immediate effects of global warming would be the changes in local
and regional water availability. Reservoir operations, crop production, erosion processes, runoff
production and many other hydrological processes are likely to be impacted by climate change.

• Rainfall is an also an essential element responsible for the availability of freshwater resources.
Rainfall is one of the important hydrological events, which plays an important role in many of the
agriculture and non-agricultural operations.

• The rainfall distribution is very uneven, and it is not only varied considerably from place to place but
also fluctuates from places to places. Annual average rainfall received by India is about 4000 billion
cubic meters (bcm).
 Introduction Continue…
• There are many different purpose for trend analysis like hydrological modelling, flood
forecasting, water resource management, climate change studies and many more.

• Trend analysis is a method to determine spatial variation and temporal changes for different
parameters associated to climate.

• The district is hilly, with a few high hills in the east and south, and the rest of the district is
occupied by a mass of flat-topped low-lying hills.

• The total area of dang district is 172357 hectare out of which 159800 hectare is covered
under forest which is 93% of total land area.
 Introduction Continue…

• The district is full of deep valleys and high hills. These valleys has extensive slope towards
the western side and contains compact forest areas with luxuriant vegetation.

• The area experiences dry climate in winter between November to march and thereafter
humidity increases.

• There is no industrial development in dang district over the years so there is no decrease in
forest area of district
 Need of Study
• Agriculture and related sectors, food security, and energy security of India are crucially
dependent on the timely availability of adequate amount of water and a conducive climate.

• The rainfall received in an area is an important factor in determining the amount of water
available to meet various demands, such as agricultural, industrial, domestic water supply
and for hydroelectric power generation.

• Global climate changes may influence long-term rainfall patterns impacting the availability
of water, along with the danger of increasing occurrences of droughts and floods.
 Need of Study Continue…

• The average temperature of dang in 1981 was 26.4°C and in 2020 was 26.7 °C.

• The average temperature on Earth is about 61°f (16°C). Rainfall is the total amount of rain
that falls in a particular place during a month, year etc.

• The average annual rainfall of dang in 1981 was 44.5mm and in 2020 was 54.3mm.

• To plan and manage water resources and to create effective plans to deal with floods and
drought conditions, it is vital to examine rainfall and temperature variance.
 Objectives

The basic objective regarding the study are as follows:

• To evaluation the average, maximum, minimum, annual and seasonal rainfall and
Temperature trends over the study area.

• Analyze the increasing and decreasing trend of annual temperature

• To find out mean and standard deviation.

 Literature Review
Sr. No. Name Of Name Of Journal Year Conclusion
Author
1 Suresh “Trend analysis of 2021 Trends in three major climatic parameters, namely, min and
kumar temperature and rainfall of max temperature and rainfall through nonparametric
sharma Rajasthan, India” approach are attempted to be investigate in the present
study.
2 Tosh M. “Spatial and temporal 2013 This was carried out using the non-parametric Mann–
Pingale trends of mean and Kendall (MK) test. The Sen's slope and percentage changes
extreme rainfall and in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the
temperature for the 33 study period (1971–2005). Further, the spatial variations in
urban centers of the arid mean (seasonal and annual) and extreme annual daily
and semi-arid state of rainfall and temperature with their trends were determined.
Rajasthan, India”
3 Saikat “Time series analysis of 2019 A bimodal nature is observed in the seasonal variation of
pramanik observed maximum and TMAX and TMIN with higher temperature variation in may
minimum air temperature except at Delhi in June and second temperature peak in
at four urban cities of September except for TMAX at Mumbai in November.
India during 1951-2015”
Sr. Name Of Name Of Journal Year Conclusion
No. Author
4 Sevak das “Trend analysis of 2021 Trends in three major climatic parameters, namely, min and
temperature at max temperature and rainfall through nonparametric approach
sardarkrushinagar (north are attempted to be investigate in the present study.
Gujarat), India”
5 Kamaljit ray “Climate variability over 2013 This was carried out using the non-parametric mann–kendall
Gujarat, India” (MK) test. The sen's slope and percentage changes in rainfall
and temperature were also estimated over the study period
(1971–2005).
6 Anil “Spatial trend analysis of 2019 A bimodal nature is observed in the seasonal variation of
choudhari temperature in Uttar TMAX and TMIN with higher temperature variation in may
Pradesh for last century” except at Delhi in June and second temperature peak in
September except for TMAX at mumbai in November
7 Abira dutta “Trend detection in 2015 The high variability in onset of monsoon rains have resulted in
roy temperature and rainfall rising rainfall trends in most of the districts in the non-
over Rajasthan during the monsoon period.
last century”
8 Arpita panda “Trend analysis of seasonal 2019 The effects of climate variability exacerbate existing social
and rainfall and temperature and economic encounters across the area, because people here
netrananda pattern in kalahandi, are mainly reliant on resources that are sensitive to climate
sahu bolangir and koraput variability and rainfed agriculture.
districts of Odisha, India”
Sr. Name Of Name Of Journal Year Conclusion
No. Author
9 N V jisha “Annual 2021 In the present study the annual mean
temperature profile Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average
of thrissur: a climate temperature did not show any increase when the data
change perspective” pertaining to the 30-year period under consideration were
analyzed.

10 Keval maniar “Spatiotemporal 2019 Results suggest that the frequency and intensity of warm
and sandeep patterns of surface nights have increased significantly, while the frequency of
patnaik temperature cold night and its intensity has decreased during the time
over western odisha period (1988–2017).
and eastern
chhattisgarh”

11 B U choudhury “Trend analysis of 2012 Significant rise in surface temperature, confounding inter
long-term weather and intra-annual, seasonal rainfall amount, distribution and
variables in mid frequency variability, inconsistency in monsoon rainfall
altitude meghalaya, contribution.
north-east india”
 Study Area And Data Collection

• The dang district is situated in the southeast part of Gujarat state and lies between 20 ‫ﹾ‬
50’33” to 2152 ’04‫ ”ﹾ‬north latitudes and 7358’27‫ ”ﹾ‬to 7338’56‫ ”ﹾ‬east longitudes.

• To the north and west of dang lies Surat and Navsari districts of Gujarat whereas to its
east and south are the districts of the Maharashtra state the dang district has ahwa
taluka comprised of 311 villages.

• The district headquarters is located at ahwa, and other major towns are wagad and
saputara.

• The district occupies an area of 1764 km² and has a population of 227000 (2011
census).
Study Area And Data Collection Continue…

• It is the most backward districts of Gujarat and is 100% rural. The administrative map of
the district is given at below fig.

• The 73 % area of dang district is covered under reserved & protected forest. In spite of
high rainfall, the district experiences problem of drinking water in summer season. This is
due to steep slopes causing heavy runoff.

• Drinking water sources are mainly hand-pumps, wells and regional water supply
schemes. Entire dang district falls under south Gujarat (heavy rainfall) sub zone.
Fig.: Location Map of Dang
 Data Collection

We need data as input, for making maps, diagrams, and calculations. The base map of Dang
district was collected from the DIVA-GIS portal (https://www.diva-gis.org), an open-source portal
of shape file.

Data Source / Website

Rainfall Data (From 1981-2021) NASA Power
https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-viewer/
Temperature Data (1981-2021) NASA Power
https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-viewer/
 Methodology

There are different statistical methods to detect a trend in hydrology

These are classified as parametric and non-parametric tests.

The parametric test is a powerful technique that requires data to be

distributed both normally and independently which is infrequently seen for
hydrological period series data.
In the non-parametric method, all data should be independent. The
outliners in these methods are restored.
 Methodology Continue…

1. Man-Kendall’s Test:

• The Man-Kendall (MK) test is a statistical nonparametric test widely used for trend
analysis in climatological and hydrological time series data.

• The test was suggested by Mann (1945) and has been extensively used with environmental
time series.

• There are two advantages to use this test. First, it is a nonparametric test and does not
require the data to be normally distributed. Second, the test has low sensitivity to abrupt
breaks due to in homogeneous time series.
 Methodology Continue…

• According to this test, the null hypothesis H0 assumes that there is no trend (the data is
independent and randomly ordered). This is tested against the alternative hypothesis H1,
which assumes that there is trend.

• The Man-Kendall’s statistic is computed as follows:

• The trend test is applied to a time series Xk, which is ranked from k = 1, 2, 3,…, n−1,
which is ranked from j=i + 1, i + 2, i + 3…..n.
 Methodology Continue…
• Each of the data point’s xj is taken as a reference point,

• This particular test has been calculated using XLSTAT 2017 software.
• A very high positive value of S is an indicator of an increasing trend, and a very low
negative value indicates a decreasing trend.
 Methodology Continue…

• If number of data points in time series is less than 10 than the value of |S| is compared
directly to the distribution S or in other case where the number of data points in time series
are greater than 10 than the value of statistic S is distributed by the mean and variance.

• Where, tp is the number of ties in p value and q is the number of tied values.
 Methodology Continue…
• If value of statistic is greater than the significance level (α) then the null hypothesis cannot be
rejected from time series indicating that the test is statistically insignificant on other hand if the
value of statistics is less than the significance level (α) then null hypothesis is rejected and
alternative hypothesis is accepted implying that test is statistically significant.

• By performing trend analysis by XLSTAT 2017 the value of MK statistic is denoted by value p.

• Two tailed test was performed at 95% confidence level for both time series of rainfall and
temperature (minimum, maximum).

• Performing the Mann- Kendall test by XLSTAT one more statistic Kendall’s tau is obtained which
shows the correlation between the two variables in time series.
 Methodology Continue…
1. Sen’s Slope Test:

• The magnitude of a trend in a time series can be determined using a non-parametric method
known as Sen's estimator (Sen, 1968).

• To estimate the true slope of an existing trend such as amount of change per year, Sen's
nonparametric method is used, and the test has been performed using XLSTAT 2022
software.

• A positive value of Sen's slope indicates an upward or increasing trend and a negative value
gives a downward or decreasing trend in the time series.
 Result And Discussion

• To analyze the trend of rainfall and temperature for Dang and Valsad district Mann-Kendell
Test & Sen’s Slope Estimator method has been carried out for both monthly & annually.

• Trend analysis has been carried out for Dang district.

• This Trend Analysis has been carried out for 40 years (1981-2021).

• Rainfall statistics shows that the annually average rainfall of Dang District is 37.68 mm
rainfall, 35.73ºC maximum temperature and 19.26ºC minimum temperature during the last
40 years (1981-2021).
 Result And Discussion Continue…
• Monthly analysis of rainfall statistics shows that the June and July month receives highest rainfall
during the study period (25.82mm and 23.76 respectively) Maximum temperature recorded during
1981-2021 over study region was 35.73ºC in May 1998 and minimum temperature was 19.26 ºC
in December 2010.
• The Results of MK test for rainfall trend analysis over Dang for 40 years (1981-2021) on monthly,
time series were presented in Table no. 1 and temperature in Table no. 2.
• In which p value suggest a significance measure against confidence level 95%.
• Positive (negative) value of S statistic for MK test indicates upward (downward) trend.
• If the value of p is greater than the significance level 0.05 than the trend is said to be statistically
insignificant and vice versa.
 Result And Discussion Continue…

The above graph describes annual rainfall, winter rainfall, pre monsoon rainfall data, post
monsoon rainfall data.

ANNUAL RAINFALL WINTER RAINFALL

2500 60
RAINFALL MM

RAINFALL MM
2000 50
40
1500
30
1000 20
500 10
0 0

YEAR YEAR

Annual Rainfall data contains the average Winter rainfall graph indicates rainfall
annual rainfall data for last 40 years during winter season. it indicates highest
(1981-2021) for dang district, Gujrat. rainfall of 0.5mm between 2002-2005 &
Annual rainfall graph indicates highest 2020-2021.
increasing trend around 2005.
 Result And Discussion Continue…
RAINFALL DATA (PRE-
MONSOON) Rainfall Data Pre-Monsoon contain the average rainfall
RAINFALL MM

150
100
data of pre monsoon for last 40 years (1981-2021) of
50 dang district, Gujrat. It also indicates highest rainfall
0
around 2020-2021.
YEAR
RAINFALL DATA (SOUTTH WEST
MONSOON)
Rainfall data for southwest monsoon graph

RAINFALL MM
2000

indicates highest rainfall in 2005 of 15- 1000

17mm and lowest rainfall. 0

YEAR

RAINFALL DATA (POST-

MONSOON)
Rainfall Data Post Monsoon contains average rainfall
RAINFALL MM

200
100 data of post monsoon for last 40 years (1981-2021) of
0
dang district Gujrat and it has maximum rainfall between
2008 & 2011, and it has many decreasing trends also.
YEAR
 Table 1: Result of MK Test for monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall (1981-2021)

Month Kendall’s S P-Value Sen’s Slope Status of H0 and Ha Results

Tau Hypothesis
January -0.041 -14 0.770 0.00 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
February -0.032 -11 0.822 0.00 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
March 0.129 53 0.327 0.00 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
April 0.127 59 0.331 0.00 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
May 0.018 11 0.893 0.00 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
June 0.251 194 0.024 4.263 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
July 0.197 153 0.076 5.405 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
August 0.225 175 0.043 4.064 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
September 0.337 261 0.002 5.352 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
October 0.090 68 0.433 0.258 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
November 0.012 7 0.936 0.00 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
December 0.171 88 0.180 0.370 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
Winter 0.094 58 0.451 0.00 H0 Accepted No Trend
Pre-Monsoon 0.113 77 0.347 0.00 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
Southwest Monsoon 0.412 321 0.000 19.199 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
Post-Monsoon 0.074 57 0.513 0.274 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
Annual 0.437 341 <0.0001 21.470 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
 Result And Discussion Continue…
• The below graph describes average annual temperature, winter temperature data, pre
monsoon temperature data, post monsoon temperature data.

AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE DATA (WINTER)

TEMPERATURE (OC)
DATA (OC)
TEMPERATURE (OC)

24.5
29
23.5
28
27 22.5
26
21.5
25
24 20.5

YEAR
YEAR

Average Annual temperature data contains Winter temperature data graph indicates
the average annual temperature data for last highest and lowest temperature in winter for
40 years (1981-2021) for dang district, last 40 years (1981-2021) of dang district,
Gujarat. Annual Average temperature graph Gujarat.
indicates highest temperature around 1987.
 Result And Discussion Continue…
TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE DATA (PRE- Temperature Data Pre-Monsoon contain the average
MONSOON)
temperature data of pre monsoon for last 40 years (1981-
(OC)

34
32
30
2021) of dang district, Gujrat. It also indicates highest
28
temperature between 2008-2011 and lowest temperature
YEAR
between 1981-1984.

TEMPERATURE DATA (SOUTH

Temperature data southwest monsoon graph

TEMPERATURE (OC)
WEST MONSOON)
indicates southwest monsoon graph for last 30

40 years 1981-2021) of dang district, 26

22
Gujarat.
YEAR
TEMPERATURE DATA (POST-
TEMPERATURE (OC)

MONSOON)
30 Temperature Data Post Monsoon contains average
20
10 temperature data of post monsoon for last 40 years
0
(1981-2021) of dang district Gujrat and it indicates
average temperature 24‫ ﹾ‬C.
YEAR
 Table 2: Result of MK Test for monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature (1981-2021)

Status of H0 and Ha
Month Kendall’s Tau S P-Value Sen’s Slope Result
Hypothesis
January -0.121 -94 0.279 -0.017 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
February 0.324 252 0.003 0.040 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
March 0.158 123 0.155 0.023 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
April 0.307 239 0.005 0.032 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
May 0.171 133 0.124 0.020 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
June -0.237 -185 0.032 -0.043 H0 Rejected Decreasing Trend
July -0.248 -193 0.025 -0.023 H0 Rejected Decreasing Trend
August 0.111 86 0.322 0.006 H0 Accepted Increasing Trend
September -0.144 -112 0.196 -0.010 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
October -0.181 -141 0.103 -0.042 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
November -0.211 -164 0.057 -0.047 H0 Rejected Decreasing Trend
December -0.205 -160 0.064 -0.028 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
Winter -0.041 -32 0.718 -0.003 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
Pre-Monsoon 0.323 252 0.003 0.021 H0 Rejected Increasing Trend
Southwest Monsoon -0266 -207 0.016 -0.021 H0 Rejected Decreasing Trend
Post-Monsoon -0.207 -161 0.062 -0.045 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
Annual -0.185 -144 0.096 -0.009 H0 Accepted Decreasing Trend
 Conclusion
Results of rainfall and temperature trend analysis over Dang District Shows that there is higher
variability of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall.

• The mean annual rainfall and maximum, minimum temperature over Dang District for 40
Years (1981-2021) were 56.74 mm, 35.73o C, 19.2o C respectively.

• Among all the seasons pre monsoon season has maximum annual average temperature 27.03 o
C during the study period.

• Results of M.K Test indicates that the trend is annual rainfall over Dang for 40 Years is
significantly increasing while on the other hand maximum temperature over the Dang shows
significant decreasing trend. Except in the pre-monsoon which has an increasing trend.
 Conclusion Continue…

• The highest standard deviation during annual (411.95 mm) season is recorded at dang
district.

• Increasing rate of rainfall and decreasing trend of maximum temperature may help in
improving productivity of agriculture and fulfil irrigation demand.

• Annual minimum temperature is increasing significantly, which may be the effect of

climate change. It is recommended that government policies in this area should be based on
recent rainfall trends.
Thank You