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Meeting 1 - Introduction and Causal Loop

The document discusses key concepts in system dynamics modeling including: 1. System dynamics focuses on seeing interrelationships and patterns of change rather than static snapshots. 2. Models in system dynamics are used to understand, change, manage and control parts of reality, and must provide insights into future behavior. 3. Feedback loops can be either positive, reinforcing change, or negative, balancing change and are important to understand system behavior over time.

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Eska Wiratama
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39 views22 pages

Meeting 1 - Introduction and Causal Loop

The document discusses key concepts in system dynamics modeling including: 1. System dynamics focuses on seeing interrelationships and patterns of change rather than static snapshots. 2. Models in system dynamics are used to understand, change, manage and control parts of reality, and must provide insights into future behavior. 3. Feedback loops can be either positive, reinforcing change, or negative, balancing change and are important to understand system behavior over time.

Uploaded by

Eska Wiratama
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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INTRODUCTION OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC

PUTRI AMELIA S.T, M.T, M.ENG

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


SYSTEM DYNAMICS

 “a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships


rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static
snapshots…systems thinking is a discipline for seeing the ‘structures’ that
underlie complex situations, and for discerning high and low leverage
change.” (Senge, 1990)

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


MODELS

 Pidd (1996, p.15) defines a model as: an external and explicit representation of part of
reality as seen by the people who wish to use that model to understand, to change, to
manage and to control that part of reality
 In order for a model to be useful to decision makers, it must provide some view on future
behavior.
 all models are wrong (Box 1976), as they cannot generate precise point-predictions of
future events in social systems, the challenge is to create models that are useful through
extensive testing, benchmarking against available data, and continual iteration between
experiments with the virtual world of simulation and the real world (Sterman 2002).

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


EVENT VS SYSTEM THINKING

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


KINDS OF SYSTEM

 Sistem diskret dan kontinue


 Sistem deterministik dan stokastik.
 Sistem terbuka dan tertutup.
 Steady state dari sistem probabilistik.

5
CHARACTERISTICS OF DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY
ADAPTED FROM (STERMAN, 2000)

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


IMPLICATIONS OF SYSTEM STRUCTURE

1. symptoms of a problem are often separated from the actual problem by time and space
2. complex systems often behave counter to human intuition
3. policy intervention in complex systems can frequently yield short-term successes but
long-term failure, or the reverse
4. internal system feedback often counters external policy intervention
5. it is better to structure a system to withstand uncertain external shocks than to try to
predict those external shocks;
6. real-world complex systems are not in equilibrium and are continually changing.

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


SYMPTOMS OF A PROBLEM

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


POINT OF VIEW PROBLEM

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


POLICY INTERVENTION

 Another characteristic of complex


feedback systems is that policy
changes can frequently make them
better before making them worse, or
worse before making them better.
 Ignoring the Long Run Effects of
Feedback Can Lead to Unintended
Consequences

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


DOCUMENTATION

There exists the capability to elicit a structural account of dynamic complexity


expressed as a system dynamics model through a process of direct or indirect
engagement with domain experts through the following approaches:
1. Interviews
2. Group model building workshops
3. Analysis of written documentation

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


METHODOLOGY

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


CAUSAL LINK

 A link captures a cause and effect relationship between


two variables (e.g. x and y), and an individual link can
be either positive or negative.
 A positive link occurs when, all else being equal, the
cause x increases, the effect y increases above what it
would have been.
 A negative link means that as the cause x increases,
then the effect y decreases below what it would have
been (Sterman 2000).

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


CAUSAL LOOP SYMBOL

Source: (Lane, 2008; Schaffernicht, 2010).


PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG
CAUSAL LOOP

 System dynamic use causal loop diagrams for "brainstorming" and model
creation, they are particularly helpful when used to present important ideas
from a model that has already been created .
 Causal loop diagrams are inherently weak because they do not distinguish
between information flows and conserved (noninformation) flows. As a result,
they can blur direct causal relationships between flows and stocks.

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


FIND POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE LOOP

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


FIND POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE LOOP

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


FIND POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE LOOP

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


FIND POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE LOOP

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


BOUNDARY SYSTEM

Forrester (1968) defines an important principle, centered on the idea of a


system boundary:
 In concept a feedback system is a closed system. Its dynamic behavior arises
within its internal structure. Any interaction which is essential to the behavior
mode must be included inside the system boundary.

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


EXOGENOUS VS ENDOGENOUS SYSTEM

 Endogenous refers to the idea that actions are caused by factors from inside
of the system. With the endogenous viewpoint behavior can be explained
through the system’s feedback structure, and not through the actions of an
external, uncontrollable, exogenous source.
 Exogenous, as the value has its source outside of the system. In other words,
this exogenous variable is not influenced by any other model variable.

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG


MAKE A CAUSAL LOOP

1. Harga cabai, konsumsi cabai, stok cabai, jumlah tanaman cabai


2. Kualitas, kepuasan pelanggan, permintaan
3. Jumlah tabungan, jumlah pendapatan, total pengeluaran
4. Anggaran, investasi mesin, kapasitas prosuksi, total produksi

PUTRI AMELIA M.ENG

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