CHAPTER TWO: SIMULATION MODELING

A simulation is the imitation of the operation of real-world

process or system over time.
Generation of artificial history and observation of that
observation history .
A model construct a conceptual framework that describes
a system.
 The behavior of a system that evolves over time is studied
by developing a simulation model.
The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
 Mathematical, logical etc
 Symbolic relationship between the entities
Goals of modeling and simulation
A model can be used to investigate a wide verity of
“what if” questions about real-world system.
 Potential changes to the system can be simulated and
predicate their impact on the system.
 Find adequate parameters before implementation

So simulation can be used as ;

 Analysis tool for predicating the effect of changes

 Design tool to predicate the performance of new

system
It is better to do simulation before Implementation
How can a model be developed?
Mathematical Methods
 Probability theory, algebraic method
 Their results are accurate
 They have a few Number of parameters

 It is impossible for complex systems

Numerical computer-based simulation

 It is simple
 It is useful for complex system
When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of
a subsystem with complex system
Informational, organizational and environmental
changes can be simulated and find their effects
A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about
improvement of system
Finding important input parameters with changing
simulation inputs
CONT.
Simulation can be used with new design and policies
before implementation
Simulating different capabilities for a machine can
help determine the requirement
Simulation models designed for training make
learning possible without the cost disruption
 A plan can be visualized with animated simulation.
The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant,
service organization) is too complex that its internal
interaction can be treated only by simulation
When Simulation Is Not the Appropriate
Tool
When the problem can be solved by common sense.
When the problem can be solved analytically.
If it is easier to perform direct experiments.
If cost exceed savings.
If resource or time are not available.
If system behavior is too complex.
Like human behavior
Advantages and Disadvantages of
Simulation
In contrast to optimization models, simulation
models are “run” rather than solved.
Given as a set of inputs and model characteristics the
model is run and the simulated behavior is observed
Advantages of Simulation
New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son
on can be explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the
real system.
New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems
and…can be tested without committing resources for their
acquisition.
 Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or
slow-down of the phenomenon (clock is self-control).
 Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and
important variables to the performance.
Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in
process the system is delayed.
A simulation study can help in understanding how the system
operates. “What if” questions can be answered.
Disadvantages of Simulation
Model building requires special training.
Vendors of simulation software have been
actively developing packages that contain
models that only need input (templates).
Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.
Many simulation software have output-analysis.
Areas of Applications
Manufacturing Applications
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Construction Engineering and project management
Military application
Logistics, Supply chain and distribution application
Transportation modes and Traffic
Business Process Simulation
Health Care
Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
Test beds for functional testing of control-system
software
Cont. Areas of Application
Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
 Test beds for functional testing of control-system
software
Risk analysis
 Insurance, portfolio,...
Computer Simulation
 CPU, Memory,…
Network simulation
 Internet backbone, LAN (Switch/Router), Wireless,
PSTN (call center)
System and System Environment
A system is defined as a group of objects that are
joined together in some regular interaction toward the
accomplishment of some purpose.
An automobile factory: Machines, components parts
and workers operate jointly along assembly line.
A system is often affected by changes occurring
outside the system: system environment.
Factory :Arrivalorders
 Effect of supply on demand : relationship between
factory output and arrival (activity of system)
Banks :arrivalofcustomers
 Components of a System
Entity
 An object of interest in the system : Machines in factory
Attribute
 The property of an entity : speed, capacity
Activity
 A time period of specified length :welding, stamping
State
 A collection of variables that describe the system in any time : status of
machine (busy, idle, down,…)
Event
 A instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the system:
breakdown
Endogenous
 Activities and events occurring with the system
Exogenous
 Activities and events occurring with the environment
EXAMPLES OF SYSTEMS AND
COMPONENTS
System Entities Attributes Activities Events State
V ariables

Banking Customers C hecking Making Arrival; #of busy

account deposits Departure tellers;#of
balance custom ers
w aiting

Note: State Variables may change continuously (continuous sys.)

over time or they may change only at a discrete set of points
(discrete sys.) in time.
Discrete and Continues Systems
Discrete system
 A discrete system is one in which the state variables
change only at a discrete set of points in time : Bank
example
Continues system.
A continues system is one in which the state
variables change continuously over time: Head of
water behind the dam
Classification of a system
Model of a System
To study the system
 It is sometimes possible to experiments with system
 This is not always possible (bank, factory,…)
 A new system may not yet exist

Model: construct a conceptual framework that

describes a system
 It is necessary to consider those accepts of systems
that affect the problem under investigation
(unnecessary details must remove)
Types of Modeling
Three types of model
1. Physical Model
Characteristics
 Tangible
 Easy to Comprehend
 Difficult to Duplicate and Share
 Difficult to Modify and Manipulate
 Lowest Scope of Use
Example: Model Airplane, Model House, Model City
Cont. Types of Modeling
2. Analog Model (a set of relationship through a
different , but analogous, medium)
Characteristics
Intangible
 Harder to Comprehend

 Easier to Duplicate and Share

 Easier to Modify and Manipulate
 Wider Scope of Use

Example: Road Map , Speedometer, Pie Chart

Cont. Types of Modeling
3. Symbolic Model. (relationship are represented
mathematically)
Characteristics
Intangible
 Hardest to Comprehend
 Easiest to Duplicate and Share

 Easiest to Modify and Manipulate

 Widest Scope of Use

Example: Simulation Model, Algebraic Model,

Spreadsheet Model
Characterizing a Simulation Model
Deterministic or Stochastic
 Does the model contain stochastic components?
 Randomness is easy to add to a DES
Static or Dynamic
 Is time a significant variable?
Continuous or Discrete
 Does the system state evolve continuously or only at
discrete points in time?
 Continuous: classical mechanics
 Discrete: queuing, inventory, machine shop models
Cont.
Discrete-Event Simulation Model
Stochastic: some state variables are random
 Dynamic: time evolution is important
Discrete-Event: significant changes occur at
discrete time instances
Model Taxonomy
DES Model Development
How to develop a model:
I. Determine the goals and objectives
II. Build a conceptual model
III. Convert into a specification model
IV. Convert into a computational model
V. Verify
VI. Validate
Three Model Levels
Conceptual
 Very high level
 How comprehensive should the model be?
 What are the state variables, which are dynamic, and which are
important?
Specification
 On paper
 May involve equations, pseudocode, etc
 How will the model receive input?
Computational
 A computer program
 General-purpose PL or simulation language?
Verification vs. Validation
Verification
 Computational model should be consistent with
specification model
 Did we build the model right?
Validation
 Computational model should be consistent with the system
being analyzed
 Did we build the right model?
 Can an expert distinguish simulation output from system
output?
Interactive graphics can prove valuable
Steps in Simulation study
STEPS OF SIMULATION MODELING
The steps involved in developing a simulation model,
designing a simulation experiment, and performing
simulation analysis are:
Step 1. Identify the problem.
Step 2. Formulate the problem.
Step 3. Collect and process real system data.
Step 4. Formulate and develop a model.
Step 5. Validate the model.
Step 6. Document model for future use.
Step 7. Select appropriate experimental design.
STEPS OF SIMULATION MODELING
Step 8. Establish experimental conditions for runs.
Step 9. Perform simulation runs.
Step 10. Interpret and present results.
Step 11. Recommend further course of action.
Although this is a logical ordering of steps in a
simulation study, many iterations at various sub-stages
may be required before the objectives of a simulation
study are achieved. Not all the steps may be possible
and/or required. On the other hand, additional steps
may have to be performed.
 SIMULATION PACKAGE
Type Of Simulation Package Examples

Arena (previously SIMAN), AweSim!

(previously SLAM II), Extend, GPSS, Micro
Saint, SIMSCRIPT, SLX
Simulation languages Object-oriented software: MODSIM III,
SIMPLE++
Animation software: Proof Animation

Manufacturing: AutoMod, Extend+MFG,

FACTOR/AIM, ManSim/X, MP$IM,
Application ProModel, QUEST, Taylor II, WITNESS
-Oriented Simulators Communications/computer: COMNET III,
NETWORK II.5, OPNET Modeler,OPNET Planner,
SES/Strategizer,SES/workbench
Business: BP$IM, Extend+BPR, ProcessModel,
ServiceModel, SIMPROCESS, Time machine
Health Care: MedModel
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation, or probability simulation, is a
technique used to understand the impact of risk and
uncertainty in financial, project management, cost,
and other forecasting models.
What Monte Carlo Simulation can Tell You
 When you have a range of values as a result, you are
beginning to understand the risk and uncertainty in the
model. The key feature of a Monte Carlo simulation is
that it can tell you – based on how you create the ranges
of estimates – how likely the resulting outcomes are.
How It Works
In a Monte Carlo simulation, a random value is
selected for each of the tasks, based on the range of
estimates. The model is calculated based on this
random value. The result of the model is recorded, and
the process is repeated. A typical Monte Carlo
simulation calculates the model hundreds or
thousands of times, each time using different
randomly-selected values.
How Reliable Is It?
Like any forecasting model, the simulation will only
be as good as the estimates you make. It's important to
remember that the simulation only represents
probabilities and not certainty. Nevertheless, Monte
Carlo simulation can be a valuable tool when
forecasting an unknown future.
Steps in using Monte Carlo simulation
1. Determine the probability distribution for each
random variable
2. Use random numbers to generate random values
3. Repeat for some number of replications
Steps in using Monte Carlo simulation
Step 1: Determine the Probability Distribution for Each RV
 There are many different probability distributions (e.g. general
discrete, normal, Poisson, uniform, exponential, binomial, etc.)
 Usually use historical data to determine which distribution “fits”
best.
Step 2: Use Random Numbers to Generate Random Values
Random numbers are where all values are equally likely
 Rolling a single die generates random numbers between 1 and 6
 Using two-digit random numbers (00 to 99) the probability of
each is 1/100 or 0.01
 Random numbers can be come from a computer, a table, a roulette
wheel, etc.
Steps in using Monte Carlo simulation
Step 3: Replication of the Simulation
 Repeatedly draw a random number and determine the
demand for a particular month
 A simulation must be replicated (or repeated) many
times to cover the full range of variability and
obtain meaningful results