COLLEGE OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATION SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

MATHEMATICS SECTION

SEMESTER-1 (AY 2022-2023)

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS (MATH311 / STAT3101)

PPT - 2 OF CHAPTER 2
Multiplication rule, Conditional probability and Bayes theorem

11/19/22
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability :
Definition : Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability
of B occurring
Example 1:
1. Rolling a die and getting a 6 and rolling a second die and getting a 3
2. Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and drawing a second card and getting a queen
Multiplication Rule 1 :
When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

Example 2: A coin is flipped, and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a
4 on the die.
Solution: S={H,T} , S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
P(head and 4)=P(head).P(4)=
Example 3: An urn contains 7 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement. Find the
probability of getting (a) 2 red balls (b) 2 blue balls (c) one red and one blue ball.
Solution :
Probability of drawing one red ball =

Probability of drawing one blue ball =

(a) Probability of drawing two red balls with replacement= . =

(b) Probability of drawing two blue balls with replacement= =

(c) P(one red ball and one blue ball) = P(blue ball followed by red ball) + P(red ball followed by blue ball)
= Here, we can have two cases.
[In first case, we first draw red ball and then blue ball.
= So, probability in this case = . =
In second case, we first draw blue ball and then red ball.
=
So, probability in this case =
Note : Multiplication rule 1 can be extended to three or more independent events by using the formula

Definition : When the outcomes or occurrence of the first event affects the outcomes or occurrence of the
second event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependents events

Independents events are events where the occurrence of one of the events does not affect the occurrence of
the other event.

Dependent events are events where the occurrence of one of the events does affect the occurrence of the
other event

Example :
1. Drawing a card from a deck not replacing it, and the drawing a second card .
2. Having high grade and getting a scholarship
Multiplication Rule 2 :

Example 4:
1. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these
a. Getting 3 Jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

Solution :
a. =

b. =
Example 5: A card is drawn from a deck and replaced, then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of
getting a queen and then an ace.

Solution : The probability of getting a queen is and since the card is replaced, the probability of getting an
ace is Hence, the probability of getting a queen and ace is

P(queen and ace) = P(queen) P(ace) =

 Conditional Probability :
The probability of an event based on the fact that some other event has occurred, will occur, or is occurring.
Let and be events such that. The conditional probability of A and B, denoted by is defined by , where is the
probability of occurrence of A given that B has already happened.

The probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred is usually stated as “the conditional
probability of B given A”

Example 6: A die is thrown twice and the sum of all number appearing is observed to be 6. What is the
conditional probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once?
 Solution : Let A = number 4 appears at least once
B = the sum of the numbers appearing is 6 and n(S) = 36
A={(4 ,1),(4 , 2),(4 , 3),(4 , 4 ),(4, 5),(4 , 6),(1 , 4),(2 , 4 ),(3 , 4),(5 ,4 ),(6 , 4 )}
𝐴∩ 𝐵={( 2,4 ) , ( 4,2 ) }
And the required probability is 𝑃 ( )
𝐴 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2/36 2
𝐵
=
𝑃 (𝐵)
=¿ =
5 /36 5
Example 7: The probability that Ahmed has to work overtime and it rains is 0.028. Ahmed hears the forecast, and
there is a 50% chance of rain.. Find the probability that he will have to work overtime, given that it rains.
Solution : Let A denote the event that Ahmed works overtime and B that it rains.
P( A ∩ B)=0.028 P ( B )=0.5
P ( )
A
B
=
P ( A ∩ B) 0.028
P( B)
¿
0.5
=0.056

Example 8: Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of getting a sum of 3 if it is known that the sum of the spots
on the dice was less than six.
Solution :
A = get a sum of 3 = {(1, 2) , (2, 1)}
B = get a sum less than six = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (3, 1), (2, 2),(1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}
A ∩ B={( 1,2 ) , ( 2,1 ) }
P ( )
A
B
=
P ( A ∩ B) =
P( B)
Example 9: From a city population, the probability of selecting a male or a smoker is 7/10 . The probability of
selecting a male smoker is 2/5 and the probability of selecting male if a smoker is already selected is 2/3 .
Find the probability of selecting : i) a non-smoker ii) a male iii) a smoker if a male is first selected.
Solution : Let A = a male is selected
B = a smoker is selected
Given , and

i) The probability of selecting a non-smoker = )

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 ( 𝐴/ 𝐵 ) =
𝑃 (𝐵)

ii)
7 2 3 1
P ( A )= + − =
10 5 5 2
iii) =
Probabilities for “At Least” :
The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary event rule to simplify solving probability problems
involving “at least.”
Example 10: A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least one tail.
Solution :
It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is “all heads,” and then subtract the
probability from 1 to get the probability of at least one tail
P ( E ) =1− P ( E )
P(atleast 1 tail) = 1 – P(all heads)
P(all heads) =

Hence, P(at least 1 tail) =

Law of Total probability :
Assume 𝑆 = 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … .. ∪ 𝐴𝑛, where 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) > 0 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 and 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗. Then for any event B,

𝑃(𝐵) = )𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

Bayes’ Rule :
Assume 𝑆 = 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … .. ∪ 𝐴𝑛, where 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) > 0, 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 and 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗. Then for any event B,
with 𝑃(𝐵) > 0

𝑃 ( 𝐴 𝑗) 𝑃
( 𝐵
)
( )
𝐴𝑗 𝐴𝑗
𝑃 =

( )
𝑛
𝐵 𝐵
∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑖 ) 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
𝑖=1
When to apply Bayes’ theorem
Part of the challenge in applying Bayes’ theorem involves recognizing the types of problems. You should
consider Bayes’ theorem when the following conditions exist.
 The sample space is partitioned into a set of mutually exclusive events {A 1, A2, …, An}.
 Within the sample space, there exists an event B, for which P(B) > 0.
 The analytical goal is to compute a conditional probability of the form: P(A k/B).
 You know at least one of the two sets of probabilities described below.
 P(Ak ∩ B) for each Ak

 P(Ak) and P(B/Ak) for each Ak

Example 11: Bag 1 contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag 2 contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is
drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag 2
Solution : Bag 1 contains 3 red and 4 black balls, Bag 2 contains 5 red and 6 black balls
Let E1 = Bag selected is bag 1 A = Ball selected is Red
E2 = Bag selected is bag 2 B = Ball selected is Black
We need to find
P(Ball was drawn from bag 2, if ball is red) = P(E 2/A)

P ( E2 / A )=P ( E 2 ) P ¿ ¿
P(E1) = Probability bag selected is bag 1 = P(A/E1) = Probability red ball was selected from bag 1 =

P(E2) = Probability bag selected is bag 2 = P(A/E2) = Probability red ball was selected from bag 2 =

1 5
×
2 11 35
P ( E 2 / A )= =
1 3 1 5 68
× + ×
2 7 2 11
Example 12: Three machines A,B, and C produce respectively 60%, 30% and 10% of the total number of items of
a factory. The percentages of defective output of these machines are 2%, 3% and 4% respectively. An item is
selected at random and is found to be defective. Find the probability that the item was produced by machine C

Solution : Let A, B and C stand for the events of selection of an item from machines A, B and C.
Given P(A) = 60/100 = 0.6, P(B) = 30/100 = 0.3, P(C) = 10/100 = 0.1

Let E be the event of selecting defective item.

P(E/A) = 0.02, P(E/B) = 0.03, P(E/C) = 0.04
We have to find P(C/E)

By Bayes’ theorem,


Exercise :

1. A die is rolled twice and the sum of the numbers appearing on them is observed to be 7. What is the
conditional probability that the number 2 has appeared at least once?

2. If and are two events such that and then find ) and .

3.The probability that Ahmed has to work overtime and it rains is 0.028. the probability that he will work
overtime, given that it rains is 0.056 Find the probability that it rains.

4. In the two dice experiment, if A is the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice is 11 and B is the event of
getting a number other than 5 on the first die, find Are A and B independent events?

5. In a certain college town, 25 percent of the students failed mathematics 15 percent failed chemistry and 10
percent failed both mathematics and chemistry. A student is selected at random
a. If the student failed chemistry, what is the probability that he or she failed in mathematics?
b. If the student failed mathematics, what is the probability that he or she failed chemistry?
c. What is the probability that the student failed mathematics or chemistry?
d. What is the probability that the student failed neither mathematics nor chemistry?
6. At a middle school, 18% of all students play football and basketball and 32% of all students play football.
What is the probability that a student plays basketball given that the student plays football

7. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the
first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test

8. In a class 2% of boys and 3% of girls are having blue eyes. There are 30% girls in the class. If a student is
selected and having blue eyes; what is the probability that the students is a girl?

9. A radar center consists of two units operating independently. The probability that one of the units detects an
incoming missile is 0.99, and the probability that the other unit detects it is 0.95. What is the probability that
(i) both units will detect?
(ii) at least one will detect?
(iii) neither will detect?
References
● Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers/ Dougls C. Montgomery/ 4 th Edition

● Elementary Statistics A step by Step[ Approach/ Allan G. Bluman/ 5th Edition