Istat10w - ch04 Edited Ver 2

Chapter 4
Probability
Concepts
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 11

Chapter 4
Probability Concepts

Probability
Probability can be defined as the chance of
an event occurring. It can be used to
quantify what the “odds” are that a specific
event will occur. Some examples of how
probability is used everyday would be
weather forecasting, “75% chance of snow”
or for setting insurance rates.

Section 4.1
Probability Basics

Figure 4.1
Possible outcomes for rolling a pair of dice

Figure 4.2
Two computer simulations of tossing a balanced coin
100 times

Key Fact 4.1

Section 4.2
Events

Definition 4.2
Sample Space and Event
Sample space: The collection of all possible outcomes

for an experiment.
Event: A collection of outcomes for the experiment, that

is, any subset of the sample space. An event occurs if
and only if the outcome of the experiment is a member
of the event.

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
A probability experiment is a chance process
that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
An event consists of outcomes.
Sample Spaces
How to know?: Observation, reasoning, tree diagram
Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

Example 4-1: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Example 4-2: Drawing cards
a deck of cards…
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Bluman, Chapter

Education, Ltd. 4 Chapter 4, Slide 13
Example 4-7: Drawing cards
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find…
1)Of getting a jack:
P(jack) =
1)Of getting the 6 of clubs (a club and a 6)
2)Of getting a 3 or a diamond
3)Of getting a 3 or a 6
P(3 or 6) =

Example 4-3: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a
family has three children. Use B for boy and G for girl
(Create a tree diagram).
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children in a family.
1st child 2nd child 3rd child
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.
Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG
Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two girls.
The probability of having two of three children being

girls is 3/8.

Education, Ltd. 4 17
Chapter 4, Slide 17
Figure 4.9
Venn diagrams for (a) event (not E), (b) event (A & B),
and (c) event (A or B)

Definition 4.3

Definition 4.4
Mutually Exclusive Events

Two or more events are mutually exclusive events
if no two of them have outcomes in common.

Figure 4.14
(a) Two mutually exclusive events;
(b) two non–mutually exclusive events

Figure 4.15
(a) Three mutually exclusive events;
(b) three non–mutually exclusive events;
(c) three non–mutually exclusive events

Formula 4.1

Formula 4.3

Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6
Mutually Exclusive

b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
Getting a 3: 3
Not Mutually Exclusive

c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3
Not Mutually Exclusive

d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less
than 4
Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3
Mutually Exclusive

Example 4-18: Political Affiliation
At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13
Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at
random, find the probability that he or she is either a
Democrat or an Independent.
Mutually Exclusive Events

P  Democrat or Republican 
 P  Democrat   P  Republican 
13 20 33 11
   
39 39 39 13

Example 4-21: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male Nurse 
8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Subjective probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine
the numerical probability that an event will happen and
assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
nE  # of desired outcomes

P E   
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes
Ex: roll a die:

Each outcome has the same p of occurring

Sample Spaces and Probability
Rounding Rule for Probabilities
-Can be expressed as fractions, decimals, %*
-Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or
rounded to two or three decimal places. When the
probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is
permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit
after the decimal point.
0.0000587 would be 0.00006

Section 4.3
Some Rules of Probability

Definition 4.5
Probability Notation
If E is an event, then P(E ) represents the probability
that event E occurs. It is read “the probability of E.”

Exercise 4-13c: Rolling Dice
If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of
getting a sum of 7 or 11.
62 2
P sum of 7 or 11  
36 9
Formula 4.2

The complement of an event E ,
denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.
P E  = 1- P E 

Example 4-10: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.
Event Complement of the Event

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant (assume y is a

and getting a vowel consonant)
Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,

month that begins with a J August, September, October,
November, or December
Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday
getting a weekday

Example 4-11: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
1
country of the world is 5 , find the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country 

= 1  P living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5

probability:

Definition 4.1

Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
f frequency of desired class

P E   
n Sum of all frequencies

Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O  
B 5 n
AB 2 21

O 21 50
Total 50
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P  A or B   
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27

O 21 50
Total 50
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P  neither A nor O 
A 22
B 5 5 2
 
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7

Total 50 50
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB 
B 5  1  P  AB 
AB 2 2 48 24
O 21  1  
50 50 25
Total 50
probability:

Subjective probability uses a probability value
based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.
Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Section 4.4
Contingency Tables; Joint and
Marginal Probabilities

Table 4.6
Contingency table for age and rank of faculty members

Table 4.7
Joint probability distribution corresponding to Table 4.6

Section 4.5
Conditional Probability

Definition 4.6
The probability that event B occurs given that event A
occurs is called a conditional probability. It is denoted
P(B | A), which is read “the probability of B given A.” We
call A the given event.

Formula 4.4

Table 4.9
Joint probability distribution of marital status and gender

Section 4.6
The Multiplication Rule;
Independence

Formula 4.5

Figure 4.25
Tree diagram for student-selection
problem

Definition 4.7
Independent Events
Event B is said to be independent of event A if P(B | A) = P(B).

Formula 4.6

Formula 4.7

Example 4-23: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
Independent Events
P  Head and 4   P  Head   P  4 
1 1 1
  
2 6 12
This problem could be solved using sample space.
H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

Example 4-24: Drawing a card
A card is drawn from a deck & replaced; then a second
card is drawn. Find the p of getting a queen and then ace.
P (queen and ace) = P(queen) . P(ace)

=
4 . 4 = 16
52 52 2704

Multiplication rule 1 can be extended to three or more
independent events using the formula
P (A and B and C and…and K) = P(A). P(B). P(C)…P(K)
When a small sample is selected from a large population

& the subjects are not replaced, the p of the event
occurring changes so slightly that for the most part, it is
considered to remain the same.
Ex: 4-26
Example 4-26: Survey on Stress
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great stress at least once a week. If three people are
selected at random, find the probability that all three will say that they suffer great stress at least once a week.
See Ex: 4-27 p.221
Independent Events
P S and S and S  P S  P S  P S
  0.46  0.46  0.46 
 0.097

Dependent events
When the outcome/occurrence of the 1st event affects the
outcome/occurrence of the 2nd event in such a way that
the p is changed, the events are said to be dependent
events.
Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, & then
drawing a second card.
The p of getting an ace on the 1st draw and king on the 2nd
draw.
4 . 4 = 16 = 4
52 51 2652 663

Conditional probability
The event of getting a king on the 2nd draw given that ace
was drawn the 1st time.
The CP of an event B in relationship to an event A is the p
that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
P(A and B)= P(A). P(BIA)
The P of the 2nd = King, given the 1st = ace

4 since the 1st card was not replaced
51

Example 4-28: University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries
reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher
wishes to select at random two burglaries to further investigate,
find the probability that both will have occurred in 2004.
The events are dependent since the researcher wishes to investigate
2 distinct cases. Thus, the 1st case is selected & not replaced.
Dependent Events
P  C1 and C2   P  C1   P  C2 C1 
16 15  60
 
53 52 689

This multiplication rule can be extended to 3 or more events.
These cards are drawn from a deck and not replaced. Find
1)Getting 3 jacks
=4 .3. 2
52 51 50
2) Getting an ace, a king and a queen in order
= 13 . 13 . 12
52 51 50
3) Getting a club, a spade and a heart in order

4) Getting 3 clubs (p.222)

4.3 Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability
that the second event B occurs given that
the first event A has occurred.
P  A and B 
P  B A 
P  A

Example 4-33: Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking
ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking
space and has to park in the no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam
arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the p that
he will get a parking ticket.
N= parking in a no-parking zone, T= getting a ticket
P  N and T  0.06
P T N     0.30
P N 0.20
Sam has a 0.30 p of getting a parking ticket, given that he parked in a
no-parking zone.

Example 4-34: Women in the Military
A CP can also be computed when the data are given in
table form.
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women
in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results of the survey are shown.

a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),
given that the respondent was a female (F).
8
P  F and Y  100 8 4

P YF  
P  F

50
 
50 25
100

b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M),
given that the respondent answered no (N).
18
P  N and M  18 3

P MN  
P N
 100
60
 
60 10
100

Section 4.7
Bayes’s Rule

Formula 4.8

Table 4.11 & 4.12
Percentage distribution for region of residence and
percentage of seniors in each region
Probabilities derived from Table 4.11

Figure 4.27
Tree diagram for calculating
P(S), using the rule of
total probability

Formula 4.9

Probabilities for “At least”… Example 4-37: Bow Ties
The Neckware Association of America reported that 3% of ties sold in the
United States are bow ties (B). If 4 customers who purchased a tie are
randomly selected, find the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.
Solution: Find the p that no bow ties are purchased, & then subtract that
value from 1
P  B   0.03, P  B   1  0.03  0.97
P  no bow ties   P  B   P  B   P  B   P  B 
  0.97  0.97  0.97  0.97   0.885
P  at least 1 bow tie   1  P  no bow ties 
 1  0.885  0.115
Section 4.8
Counting Rules

Key Fact 4.2

Definition 4.8

4.4 Counting Rules
 Many times a person must know the no. of
all possible outcomes for a sequence of
events.
 To determine this no, 3 rules can be used:
1)Fundamental counting rule
2)Permutation rule
3)Combination rule
4.4 Counting Rules
The fundamental counting rule is also
called the multiplication of choices.
choices
In a sequence of n events in which the
first one has k1 possibilities and the second
event has k2 and the third has k3, and so
forth, the total number of possibilities of the
sequence will be
k1 · k2 · k3 · · · kn

Chapter 4, Slide 86
Table 4.14
Possible permutations of three letters from the
collection of five letters

Formula 4.10

Formula 4.11

Formula 4.12

Formula 4.13

Figure 4.29
Calculating the number of outcomes in which exactly 2 of the
5 TVs selected are defective

Example 4-39: Paint Colors (Fundamental CR)
A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints. The categories
include
Color: red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select one color, one type,
one texture, and one use?
Solution: 7 colour choices, 2 type choices, 3 texture choices & 2 use choices, the total
no. of possible different paint is…
 # of
 
# of # of # of
colors types textures uses   84 different kinds of paint
7  2  3  2
When determining the no. of different possibilities of a sequence of
events, you must know whether repetitions are permissible.
Ex: 4-41 Identification cards p.234

If permissions are permitted
6 . 6 . 6 . 6 = 1296
If permissions are not permitted

6 . 5 . 4 . 3 = 360

Counting Rules
2 other rules that can be used to determine the total
no. of possibilities of a sequence events= PR & CR
Factorial notation is the product of all the

positive numbers from 1 to a number.
n !  n  n  1 n  2   3  2 1
0!  1
2) Permutation is an arrangement of objects in
n  n  1Order
a specificorder.    n . r  1
n  2matters
          
r items
n!
n Pr 
 n  r !
Counting Rules
3) Combination is a grouping of objects.
Order does not matter.
n!
n Cr 
 n  r ! r !
Pr
 n
r!

Example 4-42: Business Locations
A business owner has a choice of 5 locations in which to establish her
business. She decides to rank each location according to certain criteria,
such as price of the store & parking facilities. How many different ways
can she rank the 5 locations?
  
first second third fourth fifth
choice choice choice choice choice   
5  4  3  2  1
120 different ways to rank the locations
Using factorials, 5! = 120.

5! =
Using permutations, 5P5 = 120.

Suppose the business owner in Example 4–42 wishes to rank
only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How many different ways can
she rank them?
 
first second third
choice choice choice  
5  4  3
60 different ways to rank the locations
Using factorial =
Using permutations, 5P3 = 60.

Suppose the business owner in Example 4–42 wishes to rank
only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How many different ways can
she rank them?
  
first second third

choice choice choice 60 different ways to rank the location
5  4  3

Education, Ltd. 4 Chapter 4, Slide 99
Example 4-44: Television News Stories
A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories on an evening show. One
story will be the lead story, one will be the second story, and the last will be a closing
story. If the director has a total of 8 stories to choose from, how many possible ways
can the program be set up?
Since there is a lead, second, and closing story, we know that order matters. We will
use permutations.
P =
8 3 8!
(8-3)!
= 8! = 336
5!
or P  8
8 3  7  6  336
3
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide100

Example 4-45: School Musical Plays
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to present
next year. One will be presented in the fall, and one will be
presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick from, how many
different possibilities are there?
Order matters, so we will use permutations.

9!
9 P2   72 or P  9 8  72
9 2
7! 2

Chapter 4, Slide101
Counting Rules
3) Combination is a grouping of objects.
Order does not matter.
If Iwan selects blue & black, this selection
is the same as the selection of black & blue.
n!
n Cr 
 n  r ! r !
Pr
 n
r!
Example 4-48: School Musicals
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides
that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How many different
ways can these 3 reviews be selected?
The placement in the newspaper is not mentioned, so order does

not matter. We will use combinations.
n! 8!
n Cr  8 C3   8!/ 5!3!  56
 n  r ! r ! 5!3!
87 6 P3
or 8C3   56 or 8C3 
8
 56
3 2 3!

Example 4-49: Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3 women and 2 men
is to be chosen. How many different possibilities are there?
There are not separate roles listed for each committee member, so order does
not matter. We will use combinations.
7! possibilities.
There are 35·10 = 350 different 5!
Women: 7C3   35, Men: 5C2   10
4!3! 3!2!

4.5 Probability and Counting Rules
The counting rules can be combined with the
probability rules in this chapter to solve
many types of probability problems.
By using the fundamental counting rule, the

permutation rules, and the combination rule, you
can compute the probability of outcomes of many
experiments, such as;
getting a full house when 5 cards are dealt or
selecting a committee of 3 women and 2 men
from a club consisting of 10 women and 10 men.
Chapter 4, Slide105
Example 4-52: Magazines Combination rule
A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 Newstime magazines
on the counter. If two customers purchased a magazine, find the
probability that one of each magazine was purchased.
TV Graphic: One magazine of the 6 magazines

Newstime: One magazine of the 8 magazines
Total: Two magazines of the 14 magazines
Combinations = n Cr
6 C1 8 C1 6  8 48
 
14 C2 91 91

Example 4-53: Combination Locks
A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the alphabet. If a
3-letter combination is needed, find the probability that the
combination will consist of the letters ABC in that order. The
same letter can be used more than once. (Note: A combination
lock is really a
permutation lock.)
There are 26·26·26 = 17,576 possible combinations.

The letters ABC in order create one combination.
1
P  ABC  
17,576

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Chapter 4

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 11

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 2

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 3

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 4

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 6

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 7

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 8

Sample space: The collection of all possible outcomes

Event: A collection of outcomes for the experiment, that

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 9

Experiment Sample Space

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 11

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 12

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Bluman, Chapter

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 14

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 15

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two girls.

The probability of having two of three children being

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Bluman, Chapter

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 18

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 19

Mutually Exclusive Events

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 20

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 21

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 22

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 23

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 24

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 25

Not Mutually Exclusive

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 26

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 27

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 28

Mutually Exclusive Events

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 29

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 31

nE  # of desired outcomes

Ex: roll a die:

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 32

0.0000587 would be 0.00006

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 33

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 34

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 35

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 37

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 38

Event Complement of the Event

Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant (assume y is a

Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 39

P Not living in industrialized country 

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 40

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 41

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 4, Slide 42