PROBABILITY

DEFINITION OF TERMS
A probability experiment is a chance process
that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
Example: flipping a coin; rolling a die,
drawing a card from a deck
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
Example: When a coin is tossed, there are
two possible outcomes: head or tail
◎ A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.

◎ A tree diagram is a device consisting of line

segments emanating from a starting point
and also from the outcome point. It is used to
determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
TREE DIAGRAM

Example:
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space
for the gender of three children in a family.
TREE DIAGRAM
DEFINITION OF TERMS

An event consists of a set of outcomes of a

probability experiment. It could be one
outcome or more than one outcomes.

Example: the event of getting an odd number

when a die is rolled.
PROBABILITY

1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency
probability
3. Subjective probability
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

◎ The probability of any event E is

This probability is denoted by

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
Example 1.
Find the probability of getting a black 10
when drawing a card from a deck.
Answer:
Example2.
If a family has three children, find the
probability that exactly two of the children
are girls.
Answer:
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

Four basic probability rules:

1. The probability of any event E is a number
(either a fraction or decimal) between and
including 0 and 1. This is denoted as .
2. If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event
contains no members in the sample space),
its probability is 0.
 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

3. If an event E is certain, then the probability

of E is 1.
4. The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in the sample space is 1.
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
Complement of an Event E, denoted by
- the set of all outcomes in the sample space
that are not included in the outcomes of
event E.

Rule for complementary events:

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

Example 3.
If the probability that a person lives in an
industrialized country of the world is , find
the probability that a person does not live in
an industrialized country.

Answer:
 EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY

The probability that relies on actual experience to

determine the likelihood of outcomes
Formula for Empirical Probability
Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event
being in a given class is

This probability is called empirical probability and is based

on observation.
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
Example 4.
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
Example 4.
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
Example 5.
The following information shows the amount of debt students
who graduated from college incur.
$1 to $5001 to $20,001 to
$50,000+
$5000 $20,000 $50,000
27% 40% 19% 14%
If a person who graduates has some debt, find the probability that
a. It is less than $5001.
b. It is more than $20,000.
c. It is between $1 and $20,000.
d. It is more than $50,000.
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
◎ Example 5.
◎ The following information shows the amount of debt
students who graduated from college incur.
$1 to $5001 to $20,001 to
$50,000+
$5000 $20,000 $50,000
27% 40% 19% 14%
If a person who graduates has some debt, find the probability
that
a. It is less than $5001. 27%
b. It is more than $20,000. 33%
c. It is between $1 and $20,000. 67%
d. It is more than $50,000. 14%
 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
◎ uses a probability value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.
◎ This guess is based on the person’s experience and
evaluation of a solution.
◎ Example: A physician might say that, on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an
operation. A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability
that an earthquake will occur in a certain area.
ADDITION RULES
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the
same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common).

When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability

that A or B will occur is

If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that A

or B will occur is
ADDITION RULES
Example 6.
A certain city has 9 coffee shops: 3 Starbuck’s, 2
Figaro, and 4 Seattle’s Best. If a person selects one
shop at random to buy a cup of coffee, find the
probability that it is either Starbuck’s or Seattle’s
Best.

Answer: (events are mutually exclusive)

ADDITION RULES
Example 7.
The corporate research and development centers for three local
companies have the following number of employees.
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the probability
that the employee is employed by U.S. Steel or Alcoa.
◎ Answer:
ADDITION RULES
Example 8. A single card is drawn at random from
an ordinary deck. Find the probability that it is
either an ace or a black card.

Answer: events are not mutually exclusive

ADDITION RULES
Example 9.
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5
physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females. If
a staff person is selected, find the probability that
the subject is a nurse or a male.

Answer:
 MULTIPLICATION RULES

Two events A and B are said to be independent events

if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability
of B occurring.
Examples: tossing a coin and then rolling a die; rolling a die
and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and getting a 3;
drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it,
and drawing a second card and getting a queen.
 MULTIPLICATION RULES
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.

Examples: drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then
drawing a second card; having high grades and getting a scholarship;
parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket.
MULTIPLICATION RULES
FORMULA
When two events are independent, the probability
of both occurring is

When two events are dependent, the probability of

both occurring is

The notation means the probability that event B occurs

given that event A has already occurred.
MULTIPLICATION RULES

Example 10.
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4
on the die.

Answer: events are independent

MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example 11.
An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its color is noted. Then it is
replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted.
Find the probability of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
 MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example 11.
An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A
ball is selected and its color is noted. Then it is replaced. A
second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability
of each of these.
Independent events
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
 MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example 12.

Approximately 9% of men have a type of color blindness

that prevents them from distinguishing between red and
green. If 3 men are selected at random, find the
probability that all of them will have this type of red-
green color blindness.

Answer: independent events

MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example 13.
World Wide Insurance Company (WWIC) found that
53% of the residents of the city had homeowner’s
insurance (H) with the company. Of these clients,
27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the
company. If a resident is selected at random, find
the probability that the resident has both
homeowner’s and automobile insurance with
WWIC.
Answer: dependent events
MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example 14.
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2
contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it
falls heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it
falls tails up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find
the probability of selecting a red ball.

Answer: dependent events

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to
an event A is defined as the probability that event B occurs
after event A has already occurred.

Divide both sides by :

 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Example 15.
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two
chips without replacement. If the probability of selecting a black
chip and a white chip is , and the probability of selecting a black
chip on the first draw is , find the probability of selecting the
white chip on the second draw, given that the first chip selected
was a black chip.
Answer:
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Example 16.
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets
a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot
find a legal parking space and has to park in a no-parking
zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to
park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability that he will
get a parking ticket.
Answer:
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example 17.
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The
results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

Find these probabilities.

a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was
a female.
b. The respondent was male, given that the respondent
answered no.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
◎ Example 17.
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The
results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a
female.
b. The respondent was male, given that the respondent answered
no.
 Practice Exercise
1. If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of getting these
results.
a. A sum of 9 d. A sum less than 9
b. A sum of 7 or 11 e. A sum greater than or equal to 10
c. Doubles
2. A breakdown of the sources of energy used in the United States is shown
below. Oil 39% Natural gas 24% Coal 23%

Nuclear 8% Hydropower 3% Other 3%

Choose one energy source at random. Find the probability that it is

a. not oil d. nuclear
b. natural gas or oil e. coal or other energy sources
c. neither hydropower nor nuclear
PRACTICE EXERCISE:
3. If 2 cards are selected from a standard deck of 52 cards
without replacement, find these probabilities:
a. Both are spades.
b. Both are the same suit.
c. Both are kings.
4. In a pizza restaurant, 95% of the customers order pizza. If
65% of the customers order pizza and a salad, find the
probability that a customer who orders pizza will also order
a salad.
PRACTICE EXERCISE:
5. Below are listed the number of doctors in various
specialties by gender.
Gender Pathology Pediatrics Psychiatry
Male 12,575 33,020 27,803
Female 5,604 33,351 12,292

Choose 1 doctor at random. Find these

probabilities.
a. P(female or pediatrician)
b. P(male| pediatrician)
c. P(pathologist| female)
PRACTICE EXERCISE:

6. At a local university 54.3% of incoming first year

students have computers. If 3 students are selected at
random, find the following probabilities.
a. None have computers
b. At least one has a computer
c. All have computers