Introduction to Probability

This section of the syllabus acts as a bridge

between descriptive statistics and inferential
statistics. It allows us to first understand the basic
terms and rules of probability and to develop an
understanding of probability distributions. The
latter is very important in doing inferential
statistics.
Uncertainty, Random experiments, sample
points, sample spaces and events.

• The difference between descriptive statistics

and the approach of probability.
• Descriptive statistics is backward looking.
• Probability more ‘forward looking.’
• Learning the terminology of probability.
Uncertainty
• Probability and uncertainty.
• Probability as a measure of the likelihood or
chance of an event happening.
• Given that in most situations one is never 100%
percent certain of the likelihood of something
happening, there is “always” some measure of
uncertainty associated “things” happening.
Experiments.
• Definition of Experiment: an experiment is an act or
process of observation that leads to a single outcome that
cannot be predicted with certainty.
• Examples:
• The toss of balanced coin. The outcomes of this
experiment are: Head or Tail. Using set notation the set of
outcomes is {H, T}.
• Rolling a fair die. There are six possible outcomes of this
experiment. These are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Using set notation
the set of outcomes is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Tossing two coins: The outcomes of this experiment are:
HH, HT, TH, TT. Using set notation the set of outcomes is
{HH, HT, TH, TT}
We will see below how the outcomes of the
third experiment are worked out
Sample Point

• The most basic outcome of an experiment (simple

event).
• A sample point cannot be decomposed further. Refer
to the experiments above to identify sample points.
• The first experiment has two sample points, while
the second experiment has six sample points.
Sample spaces
• A sample space is a set containing all the possible outcomes or sample points of an
experiment, where sample points are collectively exhaustive and each pair of sample
points is mutually exclusive (universal set). The sample space is represented by the
letter S.

• Examples:
• The toss of coin. The outcomes of this experiment are: Head or Tail. Using set
notation: S = {H, T}.

• Rolling a fair die. There are six possible outcomes of this experiment. These
are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Using set notation: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

• Tossing two coins: The outcomes of this experiment are: HH, HT, TH, TT. Using
set notation: S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

• In example 1 N(S) = 2
• In example 2 N(S) = 6
• In example 3 N(S) = 4
Sample spaces
• Sample spaces can also be represented by (1) Venn
diagrams, (2) two dimensional graphs and (3) Tree
diagrams.
• Venn diagrams
Sample spaces
• Two Dimensional Diagram
Sample space for the experiment of rolling two dice.
Sample spaces
• Tree Diagrams
• Example:
• Toss one die. S = {H, T}

•H

• T
Sample spaces
• Example
• Toss two coins. The tree diagram allows us to represent the
experiment as well as work out the sample space.
Tree Diagrams

A family has three children. Draw a tree diagram to show the possible
outcomes with respect to the number of boys or girls.
Sample spaces
• The above ways of representing a sample space are useful
when the sample space is relatively small. In situations where
the sample space is large other techniques are used to
determine the sample space for experiments. A study of
combinations and permutations may be useful here.
Events
• An event is defined as a subset of the sample space. In other
words an event is a collection of sample points.

• Types of events and related concepts

• A simple event: is a subset containing exactly one sample point
in a sample space. It is also known as an elementary event or a
fundamental event.
• Example: Experiment – roll a die.
• A simple event that is related to this experiment might be the
event A where
• A = {observing the number 1}
• Another simple event might be B where
• B = {observing the number 3}
Events
• Compound Event: A compound event subset containing two
or more sample points.
• Example: Experiment –rolling a die.
• A compound event that is related to this experiment might
be the event C where
• C = {observing an odd number} = {1, 3, 5}
• Another compound event might be D where
• D = {observing a number greater than the number three 3} =
{4, 5, 6}
Events
• Impossible Event : An Impossible event is a subset containing
none of the points from the sample space. In other words the
impossible event has zero sample points. It is an empty or
null set.

• A word on notation
• Capital letters are used to refer to events.
• Example: Event A = {observing an odd number in one roll of
the die} = {1, 3, 5}
• n (A) = number of sample points in event A. In this case n (A) =
3
Events
• Complement of an event
• The complement of an event denoted as the event consists of
all the points in the sample space that are not in the event A.
The symbol is usually read aloud as A bar.
• Example: Experiment – A single roll of a fair die. Let the event
A = {observe an odd number}
• ∴ A = {1, 3,5} and = {2, 4, 6}
• We can put these ides in the Venn diagram which follows:
• A 1 3 2
• 5 4 6
•
S
Events
• Union of two events
• The union of two events A and B is the event that occurs if
either A or B or both occur on a single performance of the
experiment and is denoted as A ⋃ B.
• Note that A ⋃ B is an event which is derived from the two
events A and B. In other words the sample points that belong
to the event (A ⋃ B) are all the different sample points drawn
from the two events A and B. When we are considering the
union of two sets there are three possible ways in which the
events a and the event B are related, as shown below.
Events
• Scenario 1. Union when the two events (sets) are disjoint
sets or sets which have no intersection.

• Given S = {2, 4, 6, 8} and T = {1, 3, 5, 7}

• S ⋃ T = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
Events
• Scenario 2: Union when the two events (sets) which have
elements (sample points) in common or in other words when
the sets intersect.

• Given V = {a, e, i, o, u} and F = {d, i, g, n, o}

• V ⋃ F = {a, d, e, g, i, n, o, u}
Events
• Scenario 2: Union of two sets when one set is a proper subset
of the other set.

• T = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4} and S = {0, 1, 2}

• T ⋃ S = (0,1, 2, 3, 4}
Events
• Intersection of two events
• The intersection of two events A and B is the event that occurs
if both A and B occur on a single performance of the
experiment. We write A ⋂ B for the intersection of A and B.
The intersection A⋂B, consists of all the sample points
belonging to both A and B as shown in the following diagram.
Events
• Scenario 1: The intersection involves part of both sets or
events.

•
• The above diagram represents a die toss experiment. Let A =
{observing an even number} = {2, 4, 6} and B = {observing a
number less than or equal to 4} = {1, 2, 3, 4}
• A ⋂ B = {2,4}
Events
• Scenrio2: Where the intersection is equal to all the elements
of one set or event

• Given D ={a, e, i, f, r, s, t} and C = {a, e, r}

• D ⋂ C = {a, e r}
• Note because the set C is a proper subset of D, their
intersection is equal to C = {a, e, r}
Mutually Exclusive Events ( Disjoint events}

• Events A and B are mutually exclusive if A ⋂ B contains no

sample points, that is events A and B have no sample points in
common. In other words n(A ⋂ B) = 0 or is an empty set.
• The relevant diagram for this situation is shown below:

• S ⋂ T = { } or empty set.
Three ways of finding the probability of an
event.
• 1. The Classical Approach to Probabilities
• The classical approach of probabilities is based on the
assumption that several outcomes are equally likely. It
depends on logical reasoning.

• Two experiments for which the outcomes are equally likely are:
(i) rolling a fair die and (ii) tossing a balanced coin.

• In other words classical Probability posits that all the points in

a suitably constructed sample space are equally probable.

• We ill see later that the probability of any outcome from any
one of these experiments is the same.
Three ways of finding the probability of an
event
• Computing Probabilities: Using this approach the
probability of an event is equal to the number of sample
points in the event, divided by the total number of sample
points in the sample space, S. Thus for an event E, the
probability of the event occurring is given by:

• P (E) =

• Where: P(E) – Probability of event E, occurring

• n (E) – number of sample points in the event E.
• N (S) – number of sample points in the sample space S.
Three ways of finding the probability of an
event
• Example 1: What is the probability of getting a head on a
single toss of a balanced coin?
• S = {H, T} E = {H} n(E) = 1 N(S) = 2
• Therefore P(E) =

• Example 2: What is the probability of observing the

number 1 in one roll of a fair die?
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} E = {observing the number one} = {1}
N(S) = 6 n(E) = 1
• Therefore P(E) =
Three ways of finding the probability
of an event
• 2. Empirical approach to computing Probabilities
• This approach is based on empirical observations and use
the frequency past occurrences to compute probabilities.

• Hence if after n repetitions of an experiment, where n is

very large, an event is observed to occur in x of these then
the probability of the event is x/n.

• Another way of looking at this is given an event E, the

probability of the event P(E) is given by the formula:
• P(E) = =
Three ways of finding the probability of an
event
• Example. A coin is tossed 1000 times and it comes up heads
532 times. What is the probability of observing a head in the
next toss of the coin?
• P(E) = = = = 0.532

• The empirical approach computes the probability of an event

using the relative frequency of the event.

• We can use data in a frequency table to estimate probabilities.

Three ways of finding the probability
of an event
• Computing probabilities from a frequency distribution.

• If we choose an household
what is the probability that it
will own three vehicles?

P(E) = =
= = 0.1
Three ways of finding the probability
of an event
• 3. The subjective approach to Probability.
• Some events cannot be analysed using the objective approaches
outlined above. The subjective theorist regards probability as a
measure of personal confidence in a particular proposition.

• Hence for situations in which there is little or no historical

information from which to determine a probability, subjective
probabilities can be employed.

• Subjective probability can be thought of as the probability assigned

by an individual or group based on whatever evidence is available.
•  
• In this course the first and second approaches will be used to
compute probabilities.
•  
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 1. Within any sample space S, if E is an event then:

• 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1

• Basically this is saying that any calculated probability must

be between 0 and 1 inclusive. The closer the probability of
an event is to zero the less likely that event will occur. On
the other hand the closer the probability of an event is to 1
the more likely that event will occur. It should be noted
that the probability of an event cannot be less than 0 or be
negative. Further the probability of an event cannot be
greater than 1.
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Recall that for an experiment with equally likely outcomes

the formula for computing the probability is:
• P (E) =

• When n(E) = 0 then P(E) = 0 and the event E, is certainly

not going to take place.

• When n(E) = N(S) then P(E) = 1, and the event is certain to

occur.

• Otherwise n(E) < N(S) and P(E) is between 0 and 1. The

expression above captures these ideas.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• For any sample space S,

• P(S) = 1

• This means that an entire sample space is a certainty. It is

an event that is bound to occur in one running of the
experiment.
• Example: A coin is tossed. What is the probability of
observing the event A, where A = {H, T}

• P(A) = = 1
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 3. Addition Rule
There are two versions of the addition rule one for two events that are
mutually exclusive and a general rule which may be used for events which
are mutually exclusive and for those that are not.
•  
• 3.1. The Addition rule for Mutually Exclusive Events (Special Addition
Rule)
• Two events are mutually exclusive if they are disjoint, that is if they have no
common sample points. Given two mutually exclusive events, A and B the
probability that A or B will occur is given by P(A ⋃ B). To compute this
probability we use the addition rule.

• P (A B) = P (A) + P (B)

• This rule is also referred to as the special addition rule. Let us use an
example to examine how this rule may be derived.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Example 1: Experiment – Roll a fair die.
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {observing a number greater than 2} = {3, 4, 5, 6}
B = {observing a number less than 2} = {1}. Find the probability that A or B occurs.
(A ⋃ B) = {1, 3, 4, 5, 6}

1 A 3 4
B AA
5
2
6 S

From the Events and the Venn diagram it is clear that the event (A ⋃ B) is made up of
all the sample points in both events. (A ⋃ B) = {1, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Therefore we can use the classical approach to compute:
• P(A ⋃ B) = =
• This result may also be computed using the special addition rule:
• P(A ⋃ B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/6 + 1/6 = 5/6
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Example 2: Toss two coins. Let event A = {observe one
head} and B = {observe exactly two heads}. Find the
probability of observing at least one head by first counting
sample points and secondly by using the addition rule.
•  
• S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} A = {HT, TH} B = {HH}
(A ⋃ B) = {HH, HT, TH}
• P {observing at least one head} = = .
• This approach employs the Classical approach of counting
sample points, since the outcomes of this experiment are
equally likely. We can use the addition rule to compute
the same probability.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• The second approach uses the addition rule. Since both
events A and B contain sample points with at least one head
and the events are disjoint we can use the special
additional rule to compute the required probability.

• P (A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P(B)
• = + =

• The special addition rule only works when the events are
mutually exclusive. When the events are not mutually
exclusive we need to make an adjustment to cater for this.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 3.2. The General Addition Rule.
• This rule may be used for both mutually exclusive events as well as
those that are not mutually exclusive.

• Accordingly with any sample space S, if A and B are two events,

then:
• P(A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ⋂ B)
OR

• In the case where two events are mutually exclusive if we use this
general addition rule then the last term P (A ⋂ B) i.e equals to zero.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• The question is why we make this adjustment. Recall from above that
two events are mutually exclusive when there are no common sample
points in the two events, as shown in the diagram below. In this diagram
the events S and T have no common sample points.

• On the other hand two events are not mutually exclusive when there is
a common sample point/s in the two events as shown below.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Given B = {1, 2, 3, 4} and A = {2, 4, 6}
• (A ⋃ B) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} A ⋂ B = {2, 4}

• Then the P (A ⋃ B) = (correct answer).

• If we use the special addition rule P (A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P (B) for the

second diagram then the answer would be: = + = (This
answer is incorrect, why?)
•
Why does the special addition rule give us the incorrect answer?
• Notice there are two common sample points in the two events and these
are counted in the computation of both P (A) and the P(B). Therefore we
are double counting the numbers 2 and 4. To correct for this we need to
take away the effect of the double counting on the overall probability.
This is done by taking away P (A ⋂ B).
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• From above:
• B = {1, 2, 3, 4} and A = {2, 4, 6}
• (A ⋃ B) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} A ⋂ B = {2, 4}

• For the above problem we therefore need to use the general

addition rule. So the above problem with the adjustment gives
the following:
 
P(A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ⋂ B)
= + -
=
• Hence we see that the answer is the same using the general
addition.
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Example: Toss a coin and roll a die and combine the results. Let
the event A = {observing an outcome with a number less than or
equal to 3} and B = { observing an outcome with a number
greater than or equal to 3}. Find the probability of observing an
outcome with a number less than or equal to 3 or greater than or
equal to 3, i.e find P(A ⋃ B).
•  
• Sample space from this experiment worked out using tree
diagram in the next slide.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
• A = { H1, H2, H3, T1, T2, T3}
• B = { H3, H4, H5, H6, T3, T4, T5, T6}

• (A ⋃ B) = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
• (A ⋂ B) = {H3, T3}

• P (A) = = P (B) = =
• P(A ⋂ B) = =
•  
• P(A ⋃ B) = = = 1
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• (A ⋃ B) = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
• (A ⋂ B) = {H3, T3}
• P (A) = = P (B) = = P(A ⋂ B) = =

• Alternatively we can use the general addition rule to solve this

problem as given below.
• P(A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ⋂ B)
• = + -
• =
• = 1
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 4. The probability of an event where n(E) equals the empty set.
•
• P(empty set) = 0

• If the event set is an “impossibility” for which the probability of

occurrence is zero.

• Recall that the null set has no sample point.

• Example: Roll a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = {Observe the
number seven} = {7}

• P(A) = 0
•  
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 5. Complementary Events and their probabilities.
• The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are
not included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by (read “E
bar”) Bluman p218.
•  
•  
• Example: Tossing two balanced coins. S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
• Let A = {observing at least one head} = { HH, HT, TH} and = {TT}
•  
• P{A} = = = 0.75 P( = 0.25
•  
• ∴ P(A) = 1 – P( ) = 1 - =
•  
• P( ) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - =
•  
• P(A) + P( ) = + = 1
•  
• We will see later that sometimes it may be easier to compute the probability of an
event if we know the probability of its complement.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• 6. The Multiplication Rule.
•  
• There are two versions of the multiplication rule depending on whether the
events are independent or dependent.

• 6.1. The Multiplication Rule for independent events.

• The big question is how to determine whether two events are independent.
•  
• Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does
not affect the probability of B occurring.
•  
• The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more
events that occur in sequence. For example, if you toss a coin and then roll a
die, you can find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
These two events are said to be independent since the outcome of the first
event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of the second
event (rolling a die).
•  
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• A couple of other examples are:
• Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and
getting a 3.
• Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and
drawing a second card and getting a queen.

• Example: To find the probability of two independent events that

occur in sequence, you must find the probability of each event
occurring separately and then multiply the answers. For example, if a
coin is tossed twice, What is the probability of getting two heads
P(HH)?
•  
• We learnt that since all the outcomes of this experiment are equally
likely, the probability assigned to each one is .
• Given that S ={HH, HT, TH, TT}, P{HH} = P{HT} = P{TH} =
P{TT} =
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• We can view this experiment from a different perspective.
Recall the tree diagram for the experiment:
•  
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• For sequential experiments the tree diagram offers us a method to
compute the probabilities of different events. Notice the P(HH) = , as
worked out using the classical approach to computing probabilities.
•  
• Placing the probabilities along the branches of the tree is a useful
technique to work out the probabilities of different events. So this
experiment and example shows two ways of computing the same
probabilities of events.
•  
• Using the tree diagram to compute probabilities for the four equally
likely outcomes of this experiment allows us to explain the
multiplication rule for independent events,
•  
• Notice that the P{HH} = P(H and H) = P(H) . P(H) = x =
• ⋂
Propositions/Rules of Probability

Example 2: Toss a coin and roll a

die.
The probabilities of all the
outcomes are the same since
all the outcomes are equally likely.
• Thus P(H1) = or

• P(H ⋂ 1) = P(H) x P(1)

• = x =
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Example 3: Suppose there are five marbles in an urn. They

are identical except for colour. Three of the marbles are red
and two are blue. You are instructed to draw out one
marble, note its colour, and replace it in the urn. Then you
are to draw out another marble and note its colour. What
are the outcomes of the experiment? What is the
probability of each outcome?
•  
• We first draw a tree diagram to work out the outcomes of
the experiment.
Propositions/Rules of Probability

These are the probabilities for

the various outcomes for this
experiment

• We see that the probabilities for the different outcomes are computed by multiplying the
probabilities along the branches of the tree.
• 
• These examples confirm the special multiplication rule for independent events, since
P(RB) = P(R) x P(B) = x =
 
EVENTS MUST BE INDEPENDENT
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Dependent Events
• When the events are dependent we need to adjust the
multiplication formula to make allowance for this. 
• The big question is when are events considered to be dependent?
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Formula.

• Note that we have adjusted the second term on the right hand
side of the formula. That second term is referred to as the
conditional probability of the event B, since once the event A has
occurred, then the probability of the event B needs to be adjusted
given that the event A has occurred.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Example 1:, suppose a card is drawn from a deck and not replaced,
and then a second card is drawn. What is the probability of selecting
an ace on the first card and a king on the second card?
•  
• Given that there are 52 cards in the pack an there are four aces and
four kings.
•  
• P(Ace and King) = x = =
•  
• P(A and K) = P(Ace) x P(King|Ace)

• Conditional probability of observing a King

Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Example 4
• Suppose there are five marbles in an urn. They are identical
except for colour. Three of the marbles are red and two are blue.
You are instructed to draw out one marble, note its colour, and
set it aside (do not replace it). Then you are to draw out
another marble and note its colour. What are the outcomes of the
experiment? What is the probability of each outcome?
•  
• We first draw a tree diagram to work out the outcomes of the
experiment.
•  
Propositions/Rules of Probability

Probabilities

RR P(RR) =

RB P(RB) =

BR P(BR) =

BB P(BB) =

1
Propositions/Rules of Probability
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Conditional Probability:
•  
• We have seen above that the general multiplication rule employs the conditional
probability which adjusts the rule to deal with dependent events. The
conditional probability of an event which is represented as P(A|B), gives the
probability of the event given that another event which affects the second event
has already occurred.
•  
• The main idea in computing the conditional probability of an event is based on
some additional information that might affect the likelihood of the outcome of
an experiment, so we need to alter the probability of an event of interest.
•  
• A probability that reflects such additional knowledge is called the conditional
probability of the event.
•  
• The event that occurs first or the additional knowledge reduces the sample space
to one of its subsets. The additional information therefore tells us that we are in
a portion of the sample space rather than being anywhere in the sample space.
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Example: Roll a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let event A = {observing an even number}
= {2, 4, 6} and event B = {observing a number less than or equal to 3} = {1, 2, 3}
•  
• P(A) = P(B) =
•  
• Note: the probability of A which is 3/6 or ½, is computed without any reference to
the event B.
•  
• If we are now told that or given the additional information that the event B
occurred and we are now asked to compute the probability of the event A, then
the additional information that the event B has occurred must be taken into
account. In other words if we are told that the event B has occurred then we are
sure that the one numbers 1, 2 and 3 showed up.
•  
• Question : With this additional information we ask the question: Would the
probability of observing an even number on that throw of the die still be equal to
? No. WHY?
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Let’s look two Venn diagrams will shed light on these questions.

A 1 B
4
2 3
6

• In the first Venn Diagram we assume there is no additional information, so the probabilities are
calculated without such knowledge.  

• Once the additional information is provided then it must be taken into consideration when
computing the probability of the event A. Since we are told that the event B occurred, then the
only number in the event A that is possible, given that an even number occurred is the number
2.
•  
• Note that the original sample space which contained six sample points is reduced to a subset
containing three sample points as shown in the diagram on the right.
• ∴ P(A|B) =
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Hence probabilities associated with events defined on the reduced sample space
are called conditional probabilities. We will derive a formula below for conditional
probabilities.
•  Example 2: This is a more extended example which will review most of the topics
dealt with so far.
 

COLLEGE NON-COLLEGE
TOTAL
(C) ()

•  
MANAGERIAL (M) 50 20 70

•   NON-MANAGERIAL () 150 280 430

TOTAL 200 300 500

• In this example as shown in the table above, the employees of a firm are cross
classified as managerial or non-managerial personnel, and as college graduates or not.
•  
• We will choose a worker at random and compute probabilities for different subsets of
the sample space.
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Marginal Probabilities
•  
• P(M) = = = 0.14
•    
NON-
COLLEGE
• P() = = = 0.86 (C)
COLLEGE TOTAL
()
•  
MANAGERIAL (M) 50 20 70
• P(C) = = = 0.40
NON-MANAGERIAL () 150 280 430
•   TOTAL 200 300 500
• P() = = = 0.60
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Cell Probabilities (Joint Probabilities) 

• P(M ⋂ C) = = = 0.10
•    
NON-
COLLEGE
• P(M ⋂ ) = = = 0.04  (C)
COLLEGE
()
TOTAL

•  
MANAGERIAL (M) 50 20 70
• P( ⋂ C) = = = 0.30 NON-MANAGERIAL () 150 280 430
•   TOTAL 200 300 500
• P( ⋂ ) = = = 0.56

• Notice that the way in which the data is presented makes it easy to get
the numbers to compute the desired probabilities. We can also use the
multiplication rule to compute the cell probabilities which we will do
when we develop our understanding of conditional probabilities
 Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Conditional Probabilities

• We have seen in the example above that the conditional probability of an event takes into
consideration that another event occurred and the occurrence of that event has changed the
probability of the second event. We can use the table above to compute conditional
probabilities and below we will give a rule to compute the conditional probability of an event.
 
• P(M|C) = = 0.25 P(M|) = = 0.0667 COLLEGE
NON-
COLLEGE TOT
•   (C)
()
• P(|C) = = 0.75 P(|) = = 0.933
•   MANAGERIAL (M) 50 20 70

• P(C|M) = = 0.71 P(C|) = = 0.35

NON-MANAGERIAL () 150 280 430
•  
• P(|M) = = 0.29 P(|) = = 0.65 TOTAL 200 300 500
Propositions/Rules of Probability
• Just as we did for the card examples where two cards are pulled successively
from a deck of cards without replacement, the probabilities above are
computed for an event given that a first event has already occurred. When
the data is presented as in the table above it is easy to make the necessary
adjustment. Otherwise we can use the formula derived below from the
multiplication rule for dependent events.

• We can rewrite the last expression as follows:

Propositions/Rules of Probability
• We can re-compute the probability in the example one above. Here:

P(A|B) = = = x = = 0.33
•  
P(M|C) = = = x = = 0.25

• We can use the formula to compute a couple of the other conditional

probabilities for practice.
•  
• Another issue we have to address is when do we know two events are
independent or dependent?
•  
• It is tempting to assume that if there is an intersection, that is n(A ⋂ B) ≠ 0, that
the two events are dependent . This is not true since two events may intersect
each other and be either independent or dependent. In other words we cannot
infer independence or dependence form the fact that two events intersect each
other.
Propositions/Rules of Probability

• Statistically Independent Events.

 
• Two events A and B are statistically independent if and only if:
 
• P(A ⋂ B) = P(A) x P(B)
 
• Therefore two events are statistically if their joint probability is equal to the product of their
separate probabilities.
 
• Two events A and B are statistically independent if:
• P(A) = P(A|B) or P(B) = P(B|A) ------------ statistically independent

• On the other hand two events A and B are statistically dependent if:
• P(A) ≠ P(A|B) or P(B) ≠P(B|A) ----------- statistically dependent
 

END