QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS (ISD

551) Dr. Emmanuel Quansah

Lecturer:
Department: Supply Chain and Information Systems - KSB
Office: SF 25, KSB Undergraduate Block
 Module 1:
Introduction to Quantitative
Analysis
Learning
Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
1. Describe the quantitative analysis approach and
understand how to apply it in a real situation.
2. Describe the three categories of business
analytics.
3. Describe the use of modeling in quantitative
analysis.
4. Prepare a quantitative analysis model.
5. Use computers and spreadsheet models to perform
quantitative analysis.
6. Recognize possible problems in using quantitative
analysis.
7. Recognize implementation concerns of quantitative
analysis.
Chapter
Outline
1. What Is Quantitative Analysis?
2. Business Analytics
3. The Quantitative Analysis Approach
4. How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model
5. The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models in
the Quantitative Analysis Approach
6. Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis
Approach
7. Implementation — Not Just the Final Step
Introduction
• Mathematical tools have been used for thousands of
years
• Quantitative analysis can be applied to a wide variety of
problems
• Not enough to just know the mathematics of a technique
• Must understand the specific applicability of the technique,
its limitations, and assumptions
• Successful use of quantitative techniques usually results in a
solution that is timely, accurate, flexible, economical, reliable, and
easy to understand and use
Examples of Quantitative
Analyses
• Taco Bell saved over $150 million using forecasting and
employee scheduling quantitative analysis models
• NBC television increased revenues by over $200 million
by using quantitative analysis to develop better sales
plans for advertisers
• Continental Airlines saved over $40 million every year
using quantitative analysis models to quickly recover from
weather delays and other disruptions
What is Quantitative Analysis? (1 of
4)
Quantitative analysis is a scientific approach to managerial
decision making in which raw data are processed and
manipulated to produce meaningful information
What is Quantitative Analysis? (2 of
4)
• Quantitative factors are data that can be accurately
calculated
– Different investment alternatives
– Interest rates
– Financial ratios
– Cash flows and rates of return
– Flow of materials through a supply chain
What is Quantitative Analysis? (3 of
4)
• Qualitative factors are more difficult to quantify but affect
the decision process
– The weather
– State and federal legislation
– Technological breakthroughs
– The outcome of an election
What is Quantitative Analysis? (4 of
4)
• Quantitative and qualitative factors may have different
roles
• Decisions based on quantitative data can be
automated
• Generally quantitative analysis will aid the decision-
making process
• Important in many areas of management
• Production/Operations Management
• Supply Chain Management
• Business Analytics
Business Analytics (1 of
3)
• A data-driven approach to decision making
• Allows better decisions
• Large amounts of data
• Information technology is very important
• Statistical and quantitative analysis are used to analyze the
data and provide useful information
Business Analytics (2 of
3)
• Descriptive analytics – the study and consolidation of
historical data
• Predictive analytics – forecasting future outcomes
based on patterns in the past data
• Prescriptive analytics – the use of optimization
methods
 Similar
Terminologies?
• Quantitative
Analysis
• Business Analysis
• Business Analytics
• Data Analysis
• Decision Science
• Data Science
• Machine Learning
Necessity of
Data
The Quantitative Analysis
Approach
FIGURE 1.1 The Quantitative
Analysis Approach
 Defining the
•Problem
Develop a clear and concise statement of the problem to
provide direction and meaning
• This may be the most important and difficult step
• Go beyond symptoms and identify true causes
• Concentrate on only a few of the problems – selecting the
right problems is very important
• Specific and measurable objectives may have to be
developed
Developing a Model (1 of
2)
• Models are realistic, solvable,
and understandable
mathematical representations
of a situation

• Different types of models

Developing a Model (2 of
2)
• Mathematical model – a set of mathematical relationships
• Models generally contain variables and parameters
– Controllable variables, decision variables, are generally
unknown
• How many items should be ordered for inventory?

– Parameters are known quantities that are a part of the model

• What is the cost of placing an order?

• Required input data must be available

Acquiring Input
Data
• Input data must be accurate – GIGO rule
• Data may come from a variety of sources – company
reports, documents, employee interviews, direct
measurement, or statistical sampling
Developing a
Solution
• Manipulating the model to arrive at the best (optimal)
solution
• Common techniques are
• Solving equations
• Trial and error – trying various approaches and picking the best
result
• Complete enumeration – trying all possible values
• Using an algorithm – a series of repeating steps to reach
a solution
 Testing the Solution
• Both input data and the model should be tested for
accuracy and completeness before analysis and
implementation
• New data can be collected to test the model
• Results should be logical, consistent, and represent the
real situation
Analyzing the
Results
• Determine the implications of the solution
– Implementing results often requires change in an organization
– The impact of actions or changes needs to be studied
and understood before implementation
• Sensitivity analysis, postoptimality analysis, determines
how much the results will change if the model or input
data changes
– Sensitive models should be very thoroughly tested
 Implementing the
•Results
Implementation incorporates the solution into the
company
• Implementation can be very difficult
• People may be resistant to changes
• Many quantitative analysis efforts have failed because a good,
workable solution was not properly implemented
• Changes occur over time, so even successful
implementations must be monitored to determine if
modifications are necessary
 Modeling in the Real
•World
Quantitative analysis models are used extensively by real
organizations to solve real problems
• In the real world, quantitative analysis models can be
complex, expensive, and difficult to sell
• Following the steps in the process is an important component
of success
How to Develop a Quantitative
Analysis Model (1 of 3)
A mathematical model of profit:

Profit = Revenue − Expenses

• Revenue and expenses can be expressed in different

ways
How to Develop a Quantitative
Analysis Model (2 of 3)
Profit = Revenue − (Fixed cost + Variable cost)
Profit = (Selling price per unit)(Number of units sold) −
[Fixed cost + (Variable costs per unit)(Number of
units sold)]
Profit = sX − [f + vX]
Profit = sX − f − vX

where
s = selling price per unit v = variable cost per
unit
f = fixed cost X = number
of units sold
How to Develop a Quantitative
Analysis
Model (3 of
3)
Profit = Revenue − (Fixed cost + Variable cost)
The parameters of this model
Profit = (Selling pric e per
areunit)(Number
f, v, and s asof unitsare
these sold)
the−
inputs inherent
[Fixed cost + (Variable in unit)(Number
costs per the model. of
units The decision variable of interest
sold)] is X.
Profit = sX − [f +
vX] Profit = sX − f −
vX where
s = selling price per unit v = variable cost per
unit
f = fixed cost X = number of units
sold
Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces (1
of 3)
• The company buys, sells, and repairs old clocks
• Rebuilt springs sell for $8 per unit
• Fixed cost of equipment to build springs is $1,000
• Variable cost for spring material is $3 per unit

s=8 f = 1,000
v=3
Number of spring sets sold = X
Profits = $8X − $1,000 − $3X
If sales = 0, profits = − f = − $1,000
If sales = 1,000, profits = [($8)(1,000) − $1,000 −
($3)(1,000)]
= $4,000
Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces (2
of 3)
• Companies are often interested in the break-even point
(BEP), the BEP is the number of units sold that will result
in $0 profit
0 = sX − f − vX, or 0 =
(s − v)X − f
Solving for X, we have f = (s − v)X
X = f÷(s − v)

Fixed
BEP
cost  (Variable cost per
(Selling price per unit)
=
unit)
Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces (3
of 3)

BEP for Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces

BEP = $1,000÷($8 − $3) = 200 units
• Sales of less than 200 units of rebuilt springs will
result in a loss
• Sales of over 200 units of rebuilt springs will
result in
a profit
Advantages of Mathematical
Modeling
1. Models can accurately represent reality.
2. Models can help a decision maker formulate problems.
3. Models can give us insight and information.
4. Models can save time and money in decision making
and problem solving.
5. A model may be the only way to solve large or
complex
problems in a timely fashion.
6. A model can be used to communicate problems and
solutions to others.
 Models Categorized by
•Risk
Mathematical models that do not involve risk or chance
are called deterministic models
• All of the values used in the model are known with
complete certainty
• Mathematical models that involve risk or chance are
called probabilistic models
• Values used in the model are estimates based on
probabilities
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (1 of
6)
POM-QM for PROGRAM 1.1 The QM for
Main Menu
Windows
Windows
• An easy to use
decision support
system for use in
POM and QM
courses
• This is the main
menu of quantitative
models
• An Excel add-in
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (2 of
6)
PROGRAM 1.2A Entering the Data for Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces Example into QM for Windows
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (3 of
6)
PROGRAM 1.2B QM for Windows Solution Screen for
Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces Example
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (4 of
6)
PROGRAM 1.3 Excel QM in Excel 2016 Ribbon and Menu
of Techniques
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (5 of
6)
PROGRAM 1.4 Entering the Data for Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces Example into Excel QM in Excel 2016
Computers and Spreadsheet Models (6 of
6)
PROGRAM 1.5 Using Goal Seek in the Break-Even
Problem to Achieve a Specified Profit
Possible Problems in the Quantitative
Analysis Approach (1 of 2)
• Defining the problem
• Problems may not be easily identified
• Conflicting viewpoints
• Impact on other departments
• Beginning assumptions
• Solution outdated
• Developing a model
• Fitting the textbook models
• Understanding the model
Possible Problems in the Quantitative
Analysis Approach (2 of 2)
• Acquiring accurate input data
– Using accounting data
– Validity of the data
• Developing a solution
– Hard-to-understand mathematics
– Only one answer is limiting
• Testing the solution
• Solutions not always intuitively obvious

• Analyzing the results

• How will it affect the total organization
Implementation – Not Just the Final
of 2)
Step (1
• Lack of commitment and resistance to change
• Fear formal analysis processes will reduce management’s
decision-making power
• Fear previous intuitive decisions exposed as inadequate
• Uncomfortable with new thinking patterns
• Action-oriented managers may want ―quick and dirty‖
techniques
• Management support and user involvement are important
Implementation – Not Just the Final
of 2)
Step (2
• Lack of commitment by quantitative analysts
• Analysts should be involved with the problem and care about
the solution
• Analysts should work with users and take their feelings
into account
Questions???