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Flow Rate Method Model (Poisson Counting Process)

The Poisson counting process is used to model random events that occur at a constant average rate. [1] It describes scenarios like earthquakes, car accidents, or website traffic where the timing of individual events is random. [2] A Poisson random variable represents the number of events in a given time interval, with the probability of a given count depending only on the interval length and rate parameter. [3] For a Poisson process, the number of arrivals in non-overlapping time intervals are independent.

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44 views8 pages

Flow Rate Method Model (Poisson Counting Process)

The Poisson counting process is used to model random events that occur at a constant average rate. [1] It describes scenarios like earthquakes, car accidents, or website traffic where the timing of individual events is random. [2] A Poisson random variable represents the number of events in a given time interval, with the probability of a given count depending only on the interval length and rate parameter. [3] For a Poisson process, the number of arrivals in non-overlapping time intervals are independent.

Uploaded by

Salman Khan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Flow Rate Method Equation

(Poisson’s Counting Process )

1
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

• One of the most important types of counting processes is the Poisson


process (or Poisson counting process), it is usually used in scenarios
where we are counting the occurrences of a certain events that
appear to happen at a certain rate, but completely at random
(without a certain structure).

• For example, suppose that from historical data, we know that


earthquakes occur in a certain area with a rate of 2 per month. Other
than this information, the timings of earthquakes seem to be
completely random

2
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

Further examples
- The number of car accidents at a site or in an area.
- The location of users in a wireless network.
- The requests for individual documents on a web server.
-The outbreak of wars.
Poisson Random Variable :
A discrete random variable is said to be a Poisson random variable with
parameter λ, shown as

3
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

If then
Definition (Poisson Process)
The counting process is said to be a Poisson process having rate
(intensity)

4
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

• 1.
• 2. has independent increments.
• 3. The number of arrivals in any interval of length
has with mean .

We conclude that in a Poisson process, the distribution of the number


of arrivals in any interval depends only on the length of the interval and
not on the exact location of the interval on the real line.

5
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )
• Result.
• Let be the probability that exactly n events occur in an interval of length , namely,

Example: The number of customers arriving at a grocery store can be modelled by a


Poisson process with intensity λ=10 customers per hour.
1. Find the probability that there are 2 customers between 10:00 and 10:20.
2. Find the probability that there are 3 customers between 10:00 and 10:20 and 7
customers between 10:20 and 11.

6
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

• Solution
1. Here λ=10 and the interval between 10:00 and 10:20 has length
hours. Thus, if X is the number of arrivals in that interval, we can write
. Therefore

2. Here we have non-overlapping interval =(10:20 , 11:00]. Thus, we


can write
(3 arrivals in and 7 arrivals in = P(3 arrivals in )

7
Flow Rate Method Equation
(Poisson’s Counting Process )

• since the lengths of the two intervals and respectively, Thus, we have

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