GECS 1202: Statistics and Probability

PROBABILITY THEORY PART 2

By Lubowa Martin
[email protected]
+256 772 957653 or +254 712 145 403
Discrete Probability Distributions
5
Outline
5-1 Probability Distributions
5-2 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and
Expectation
5-3 The Binomial Distribution
5-4 Other Types of Distributions (Optional)
Discrete Probability Distributions

Objectives 5
1 Construct a probability distribution for a random
variable.
2 Find the mean, variance, standard deviation, and
expected value for a discrete random variable.
3 Find the exact probability for X successes in n trials
of a binomial experiment.
4 Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for
the variable of a binomial distribution.
Discrete Probability Distributions
5
Objectives
5 Find probabilities for outcomes of variables, using
the Poisson, hypergeometric, and multinomial
distributions.
 5.1 Probability Distributions
• A random variable is a variable whose values are
determined by chance.
• A discrete probability distribution consists of the
values a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values.
• The sum of the probabilities of all events in a
sample space add up to 1. Each probability is
between 0 and 1, inclusively.

5
 Example 5-1: Rolling a Die
Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single
die.

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 Example 5-2: Tossing Coins
Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample space for
tossing three coins.
.

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 Tossing three coins
• HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, TTH, THT, TTT
5-2 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation,
and Expectation

MEAN:    X  P  X 

VARIANCE:
    X  P  X   
2 2 2

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Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation,
and Expectation
Rounding Rule
The mean, variance, and standard deviation should be
rounded to one more decimal place than the outcome
X.

When fractions are used, they should be reduced to

lowest terms.

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 Example 5-5: Rolling a Die
Find the mean of the number of spots that appear when a die is tossed.

   X PX 
 1 16  2  16  3  16  4  16  5  16  6  16

 21
6  3.5

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 VARIANCE:
2    X 2
PX 
   2

• = 12.1/6+ 22.1/6 + 32.1/6 + 42.1/6 + 52 .1/6 + 62.1/6

• =
1/6 + 4/6 + 9/6 + 16/6 + 25/6 +36/6

• = 91/6

• =15.167

• Variance = 15.167
– (3.5)2
• = 15.167 – 12.25

• = 2.916666

• =2.92
Standard deviation = 1.7078 =1.7
 Example 5-8: Trips of 5 Nights or More
The probability distribution shown represents the
number of trips of five nights or more that American
adults take per year. (That is, 6% do not take any trips
lasting five nights or more, 70% take one trip lasting
five nights or more per year, etc.) Find the mean.

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Example 5-8: Trips of 5 Nights or More

   X PX 

 0  0.06   1 0.70   2  0.20 

 3  0.03  4  0.01

 1.2

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 Example 5-9: Rolling a Die
Compute the variance and standard deviation for the probability distribution in Example 5–5.

 2    X 2  P  X    2
2 2 2 2 2
  1   2   3   4  16
1
6
1
6
1
6

 5   6   3.5 
2 1 2 1 2
6 6

 2  2.9 ,   1.7
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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host
is unable to talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking
to a person, the other callers are placed on hold. When
all lines are in use, others who are trying to call in get a
busy signal. The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people
will get through is shown in the distribution. Find the
variance and standard deviation for the distribution.

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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio

  0  0.18   1 0.34   2  0.23

 3  0.21  4  0.04   1.6
  0  0.18   1  0.34   2  0.23
2 2 2 2

 3  0.21  4  0.04   1.6 

2 2 2

 2  1.2 ,   1.1
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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host
is unable to talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking
to a person, the other callers are placed on hold. When
all lines are in use, others who are trying to call in get a
busy signal.

Should the station have considered getting more

phone lines installed?

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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
No, the four phone lines should be sufficient.
The mean number of people calling at any one time
is 1.6.
Since the standard deviation is 1.1, most callers
would be accommodated by having four phone lines
because µ + 2 would be
1.6 + 2(1.1) = 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8.
Very few callers would get a busy signal since at least
75% of the callers would either get through or be put
on hold. (See Chebyshev’s theorem in Section 3–2.)

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 Expectation
• The expected value,
value or expectation,
expectation of a
discrete random variable of a probability
distribution is the theoretical average of the
variable.
• The expected value is, by definition, the
mean of the probability distribution.

E X      X PX 

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 Example 5-13: Special Die
A special six-sided die is made in which 3 sides have 6
spots, 2 sides have 4 spots, and 1 side has 1 spot.

If the die is rolled, find the expected value of the

number of spots that will occur.

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 5-3 The Binomial Distribution
 Many types of probability problems have
only two possible outcomes or they can be
reduced to two outcomes.
 Examples include: when a coin is tossed it
can land on heads or tails, when a baby is
born it is either a boy or girl, etc.

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 The Binomial Distribution
The binomial experiment is a probability
experiment that satisfies these requirements:
1. Each trial can have only two possible outcomes—
success or failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent
of each other.
4. The probability of success must remain the same
for each trial.

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Notation for the Binomial Distribution
P(S) The symbol for the probability of success
P(F) The symbol for the probability of failure
p The numerical probability of success
q The numerical probability of failure
P(S) = p and P(F) = 1 – p = q
n The number of trials
X The number of successes
Note that X = 0, 1, 2, 3, ... , n
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 The Binomial Distribution
In a binomial experiment, the probability of
exactly X successes in n trials is
n!
PX   X
 p q n X

 n  X ! X !
or
PX   Cx X
 p q n X
n    
number of possible probability of a
desired outcomes desired outcome

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 Example 5-16: Survey on Doctor Visits
A survey found that one out of five Americans say he
or she has visited a doctor in any given month. If 10
people are selected at random, find the probability
that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

n!
PX    p X  q n X
 n  X ! X !
n  10,"one out of five"  p  15 , X  3
3 7
10!  1  4
P 3        0.201
7!3!  5  5

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 Example 5-17: Survey on Employment
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited
(Northbrook, Illinois) found that 30% of teenage
consumers receive their spending money from part-
time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find
the probability that at least 3 of them will have part-
time jobs.
n  5, p  0.30,"at least 3"  X  3, 4,5
5!
P 3    0.30    0.70   0.132 P  X  3  0.132
3 2

2!3!
5! 0.028
P 4    0.30    0.70   0.028
4 1

1!4! 0.002
5!  0.162
P 5     0.30    0.70   0.002
5 0

0!5!
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 Example 5-18: Tossing Coins
A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting
exactly two heads, using Table B.
n  3, p  12  0.5, X  2  P  2   0.375

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 The Binomial Distribution
The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
variable that has the binomial distribution can be
found by using the following formulas.

Mean:   np
2
Variance:   npq
Standard Deviation:   npq

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 Example 5-23: Likelihood of Twins
The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life
Insurance Co. reported that 2% of all American births
result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is
taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation
of the number of births that would result in twins.

  np  8000  0.02   160

 2  npq  8000  0.02  0.98   156.8  157
  npq  8000  0.02  0.98   12.5  13

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 5-4 Other Types of Distributions
 The multinomial distribution is similar to the
binomial distribution but has the advantage
of allowing one to compute probabilities
when there are more than two outcomes.

n!
PX    p1 X1  p2 X 2  p3 X 3  pk X k
X 1 ! X 2 ! X 3 ! X k !
 The binomial distribution is a special case of
the multinomial distribution.

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 Example 5-24: Leisure Activities
In a large city, 50% of the people choose a movie, 30%
choose dinner and a play, and 20% choose shopping as
a leisure activity. If a sample of 5 people is randomly
selected, find the probability that 3 are planning to go
to a movie, 1 to a play, and 1 to a shopping mall.

n!
PX    p1 X1  p2 X 2  p3 X 3  pk X k
X 1 ! X 2 ! X 3 ! X k !
5!
PX     0.50   0.30   0.20   0.15
3 1 1

3!1!1!

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 Other Types of Distributions
 The Poisson distribution is a distribution
useful when n is large and p is small and when
the independent variables occur over a period
of time.
 The Poisson distribution can also be used
when a density of items is distributed over a
given area or volume, such as the number of
plants growing per acre or the number of
defects in a given length of videotape.

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 Other Types of Distributions
Poisson Distribution
The probability of X occurrences in an interval of
time, volume, area, etc., for a variable, where λ
(Greek letter lambda) is the mean number of
occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.), is

e  X
P X ;   where X  0,1, 2,....
X!
The letter e is a constant approximately equal to
2.7183.
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 Example 5-27: Typographical Errors
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a
500-page manuscript, find the probability that a given page
contains exactly 3 errors.

First, find the mean number of  errors. With 200 errors

distributed over 500 pages, each page has an average of
  500
200
 0.4
errors per page.

 0.4 
 0.4 3
e  X
e
P X ;    0.0072
X! 3!
Thus, there is less than 1% chance that any given page will
contain exactly 3 errors.

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 Other Types of Distributions
 The hypergeometric distribution is a
distribution of a variable that has two
outcomes when sampling is done without
replacement.

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 Other Types of Distributions
Hypergeometric Distribution
Given a population with only two types of objects
(females and males, defective and nondefective,
successes and failures, etc.), such that there are a items
of one kind and b items of another kind and a + b
equals the total population, the probability P(X) of
selecting without replacement a sample of size n with
X items of type a and n – X items of type b is
C X  b Cn  X
PX   a

a  b Cn
The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183.
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 Example 5-31: House Insurance
A recent study found that 2 out of every 10 houses in a
neighborhood have no insurance. If 5 houses are selected from
10 houses, find the probability that exactly 1 will be uninsured.

a  2, a  b  10  b  8 , X  1, n  5  n  X  4
C X  b Cn  X
PX   a

a  b Cn

C1  8C4 2  70 140 5
PX   2
  
10 C5 252 252 9

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