Waiting Line Models

 The Structure of a Waiting Line System

 Queuing Systems
 Queuing System Input Characteristics
 Queuing System Operating Characteristics
 Analytical Formulas
 Single-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
 Multiple-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
 Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System

 Queuing theory is the study of waiting lines.

 Four characteristics of a queuing system are:
•the manner in which customers arrive
•the time required for service
•the priority determining the order of service
•the number and configuration of servers in the
system.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System

 Distribution of Arrivals
•Generally, the arrival of customers into the system is
a random event.
•Frequently the arrival pattern is modeled as a
Poisson process.
 Distribution of Service Times
•Service time is also usually a random variable.
•A distribution commonly used to describe service
time is the exponential distribution.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System

 Queue Discipline
•Most common queue discipline is first come, first
served (FCFS).
•An elevator is an example of last come, first served
(LCFS) queue discipline.
•Other disciplines assign priorities to the waiting
units and then serve the unit with the highest
priority first.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System

 Single Service Channel

System
Customer Waiting line Customer
arrives S11 leaves

System
 Multiple Service Channels
S11

Customer Waiting line Customer

arrives S22
leaves

S33

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 Examples of Internal Service Systems
That Are Queueing Systems
Type of System Customers Server(s)
Secretarial services Employees Secretary
Copying services Employees Copy machine
Computer programming Employees Programmer
services
Mainframe computer Employees Computer
First-aid center Employees Nurse
Faxing services Employees Fax machine
Materials-handling Loads Materials-handling
system unit
Maintenance system Machines Repair crew
Inspection station Items Inspector
Production system Jobs Machine
Semiautomatic machines Machines Operator
Tool crib Machine Clerk 6
Slide
Examples of Transportation Service Systems
That Are Queueing Systems

Type of System Customers Server(s)

Highway tollbooth Cars Cashier
Truck loading dock Trucks Loading crew
Port unloading area Ships Unloading crew
Airplanes waiting to take Airplanes Runway
off
Airplanes waiting to land Airplanes Runway
Airline service People Airplane
Taxicab service People Taxicab
Elevator service People Elevator
Fire department Fires Fire truck
Parking lot Cars Parking space
Ambulance service People Ambulance
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 Queuing Systems

 A three part code of the form A/B/k is used to

describe various queuing systems.
 A identifies the arrival distribution, B the service
(departure) distribution and k the number of
channels for the system.
 Symbols used for the arrival and service processes
are: M - Markov distributions (Poisson/exponential),
D - Deterministic (constant) and G - General
distribution (with a known mean and variance).
 For example, M/M/k refers to a system in which
arrivals occur according to a Poisson distribution,
service times follow an exponential distribution and
there are k servers working at identical service rates.

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 Queuing System Input Characteristics

 = the average arrival rate

1/ = the average time between arrivals
µ = the average service rate for each server
1/µ = the average service time
 = the standard deviation of the service time

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 Queuing System Operating Characteristics

P0 = probability the service facility is idle

Pn = probability of n units in the system
Pw = probability an arriving unit must wait for service
Lq = average number of units in the queue awaiting
service
L = average number of units in the system
Wq = average time a unit spends in the queue
awaiting service
W = average time a unit spends in the system

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 Analytical Formulas

 For nearly all queuing systems, there is a relationship

between the average time a unit spends in the system
or queue and the average number of units in the
system or queue.
 These relationships, known as Little's flow equations
are:
L = W and Lq = Wq

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 Analytical Formulas

 When the queue discipline is FCFS, analytical formulas

have been derived for several different queuing models
including the following:
•M/M/1
•M/M/k
•M/G/1
•M/G/k with blocked customers cleared
•M/M/1 with a finite calling population
 Analytical formulas are not available for all possible
queuing systems. In this event, insights may be gained
through a simulation of the system.

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 M/M/1 Queuing System

 Single channel
 Poisson arrival-rate distribution
 Exponential service-time distribution
 Unlimited maximum queue length
 Infinite calling population
 Examples:
•Single-window theatre ticket sales booth
•Single-scanner airport security station

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 Notation for Single-Server Queueing Models

  = Mean arrival rate for customers

= Expected number of arrivals per unit time

1/ = expected interarrival time

  = Mean service rate (for a continuously busy server)

= Expected number of service completions per unit time

 = expected service time

  = the utilization factor

= the average fraction of time that a server is busy
serving customers
= 

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 Assumptions
1.Interarrival times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/.
2.Service times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/.
3.The queueing system has one server.
• The expected number of customers in the system is
L = 1 – = – 
• The expected waiting time in the system is
W = (1 / )L = 1 / ( – )
• The expected waiting time in the queue is
Wq = W – 1/ =  / [( – )]
• The expected number of customers in the queue is
Lq = Wq = 2 / [( – )] = 2 / (1 – )

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 The probability of having exactly n customers in the system is
Pn = (1 – )n
Thus,
P0 = 1 – 
P1 = (1 – )
P2 = (1 – )2
:
:
 The probability that the waiting time in the system exceeds t is
P(W > t) = e–(1–)t for t ≥ 0
 The probability that the waiting time in the queue exceeds t is
P(Wq > t) = e–(1–)t for t ≥ 0

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Problem:

 Consider the situation where the mean arrival rate is

one customer every 4 minutes and the mean service
time is 2.5 minutes. Calculate the following

•Average no. of customer in the system

•Average queue length
•Average time a customer spends in the system
•Average time a customer waits before being served.

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Problem:

 Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to be

Poisson, with an average time of 10 minutes between
one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is
assumed to be exponentially distributed with mean 3
minutes.
 What is the probability that a person arriving at the
booth will have to wait?
 The telephone department will install a second booth
when convinced that an arrival would expect to have to
wait at least three minutes for the phone. By how much
must the flow of arrivals be increased in order to justify
a second booth?

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 M/M/1 Queuing System

Joe Ferris is a stock trader on the floor of the New
York Stock Exchange for the firm of Smith, Jones,
Johnson, and Thomas, Inc. Stock transactions arrive
at a mean rate of 20 per hour. Each order received by
Joe requires an average of two minutes to process.
Orders arrive at a mean rate of 20 per hour or
one order every 3 minutes. Therefore, in a 15 minute
interval the average number of orders arriving will
be  = 15/3 = 5.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Arrival Rate Distribution

Question
What is the probability that no orders are
received within a 15-minute period?

Answer
P (x = 0) = (50e -5)/0! = e -5 = .0067

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Arrival Rate Distribution

Question
What is the probability that exactly 3 orders are
received within a 15-minute period?

Answer
P (x = 3) = (53e -5)/3! = 125(.0067)/6 = .1396

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Arrival Rate Distribution

Question
What is the probability that more than 6 orders
arrive within a 15-minute period?

Answer
P (x > 6) = 1 - P (x = 0) - P (x = 1) - P (x = 2)
- P (x = 3) - P (x = 4) - P (x = 5)
- P (x = 6)
= 1 - .762 = .238

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Service Rate Distribution

Question
What is the mean service rate per hour?

Answer
Since Joe Ferris can process an order in an average
time of 2 minutes (= 2/60 hr.), then the mean service
rate, µ, is µ = 1/(mean service time), or 60/2.

 = 30/hr.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Service Time Distribution

Question
What percentage of the orders will take less than
one minute to process?

Answer
Since the units are expressed in hours,
P (T < 1 minute) = P (T < 1/60 hour).
Using the exponential distribution, P (T < t ) = 1 - e-µt.
Hence, P (T < 1/60) = 1 - e-30(1/60)
= 1 - .6065 = .3935 = 39.35%

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Service Time Distribution

Question
What percentage of the orders will be processed in
exactly 3 minutes?

Answer
Since the exponential distribution is a continuous
distribution, the probability a service time exactly
equals any specific value is 0 .

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Service Time Distribution

Question
What percentage of the orders will require more
than 3 minutes to process?

Answer
The percentage of orders requiring more than 3
minutes to process is:
P (T > 3/60) = e-30(3/60) = e -1.5 = .2231 = 22.31%

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Average Time in the System

Question
What is the average time an order must wait from
the time Joe receives the order until it is finished being
processed (i.e. its turnaround time)?

Answer
This is an M/M/1 queue with  = 20 per hour and
 = 30 per hour. The average time an order waits in the
system is: W = 1/(µ -  )
= 1/(30 - 20)
= 1/10 hour or 6 minutes

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Average Length of Queue

Question
What is the average number of orders Joe has
waiting to be processed?

Answer
Average number of orders waiting in the queue is:
Lq = 2/[µ(µ - )]
= (20)2/[(30)(30-20)]
= 400/300
= 4/3

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Utilization Factor
Question
What percentage of the time is Joe processing
orders?

Answer
The percentage of time Joe is processing orders is
equivalent to the utilization factor, /. Thus, the
percentage of time he is processing orders is:
/ = 20/30
= 2/3 or 66.67%

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

 Solution
A B C D E F G H
1 Poisson Arrival Rate  20
2 Exponential Service Rate  30
3 Operating Characteristics
4 Probability of no orders in system Po 0.333
5 Average number of orders waiting Lg 1.333
6 Average number of orders in system L 2.000
7 Average time an order waits Wq 0.067
8 Average time an order is in system W 0.100
9 Probability an order must wait Pw 0.667

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 M/M/k Queuing System

 Multiple channels (with one central waiting line)

 Poisson arrival-rate distribution
 Exponential service-time distribution
 Unlimited maximum queue length
 Infinite calling population
 Examples:
•Four-teller transaction counter in bank
•Two-clerk returns counter in retail store

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 n
1   
Pn  
 
 P0 , for (n  k)
n!   
n
1  
 
  P0 , for (n  k)
k! k n  k  
1
P0 
 n  k 1 1  
n
 1  
k
k
       

 n 0 n!  
    k !    k  
 
k
1   k
Pw  P(n  k )    P0 ,
k!   

 k  
k
      
L   P0  ,  
 k  1 ! k    2
 k

L  1 Lq
W  , Lq  L , Wq  W  
   
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General Operating Characteristics

Little' s Flow Equations :

L
L  λW (or W  )
λ
Lq
L q  λWq (or Wq  )
λ
1
W  Wq 


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Problem:
 A Tax consulting firm has four service stations (counters) in its
office to receive people who have problems and complaints about
their income, wealth and sales taxes. Arrivals average 80 persons
in an 8 hour service day. Each tax advisor spends irregular amount
of time servicing the arrivals which have been found to have an
exponential distribution. The average service time is 20 minutes.
 Calculate the average no. of customers in the system,
 average no. of customers waiting to be serviced,
 average time a customer spend in the system,
 average waiting time for a customer in queue.
 Calculate how many hours each week does a tax advisor spend
performing his job?
 What is the probability that a customer has to wait before he gets
service?
 What is the expected no. of idle tax advisors at any specified time?

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 M/M/2 Queuing System

Smith, Jones, Johnson, and Thomas, Inc. has begun
a major advertising campaign which it believes will
increase its business 50%. To handle the increased
volume, the company has hired an additional floor
trader, Fred Hanson, who works at the same speed as
Joe Ferris.
Note that the new arrival rate of orders,  , is 50%
higher than that of problem (A). Thus,  = 1.5(20) = 30
per hour.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Sufficient Service Rate

Question
Why will Joe Ferris alone not be able to handle the
increase in orders?

Answer
Since Joe Ferris processes orders at a mean rate of
µ = 30 per hour, then  = µ = 30 and the utilization
factor is 1.
This implies the queue of orders will grow
infinitely large. Hence, Joe alone cannot handle this
increase in demand.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Probability of n Units in System

Question
What is the probability that neither Joe nor Fred
will be working on an order at any point in time?

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Probability of n Units in System (continued)

Answer
Given that  = 30, µ = 30, k = 2 and ( /µ) = 1, the
probability that neither Joe nor Fred will be working is:
1
P0 
k  1 (  /  )n ( /  )k k
  ( )
n 0 n! k! k  
= 1/[(1 + (1/1!)(30/30)1] + [(1/2!)(1)2][2(30)/(2(30)-30)]

= 1/(1 + 1 + 1) = 1/3 = .333

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Average Time in System

Question
What is the average turnaround time for an order
with both Joe and Fred working?

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Average Time in System (continued)

Answer
The average turnaround time is the average waiting
time in the system, W.
µ( /µ)k (30)(30)(30/30)2
Lq = P0 = (1/3) = 1/3
(k-1)!(kµ -  )2 (1!)((2)(30)-30))2

L = Lq + ( /µ) = 1/3 + (30/30) = 4/3

W = L/(4/3)/30 = 4/90 hr. = 2.67 min.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Average Length of Queue

Question
What is the average number of orders waiting to be
filled with both Joe and Fred working?

Answer
The average number of orders waiting to be filled is
Lq. This was calculated earlier as 1/3 .

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Formula Spreadsheet
A B C D E F G H
1 Number of Channels k 2
2 Mean Arrival Rate (Poisson)  30
3 Mean Service Rate (Exponential )  30
4 Operating Characteristics
5 Probability of no orders in system Po =Po(H1,H2,H3)
6 Average number of orders waiting Lg ##
7 Average number of orders in system L =H6+H2/H3
8 Average time (hrs) an order waits Wq =H6/H2
9 Average time (hrs) an order is in system W =H8+1/H3
10 Probability an order must wait Pw =H2/H3

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

 Spreadsheet Solution
A B C D E F G H
1 Number of Channels k 2
2 Mean Arrival Rate (Poisson)  30
3 Mean Service Rate (Exponential )  30
4 Operating Characteristics
5 Probability of no orders in system Po 0.333
6 Average number of orders waiting Lg 0.333
7 Average number of orders in system L 1.333
8 Average time (hrs) an order waits Wq 0.011
9 Average time (hrs) an order is in system W 0.044
10 Probability an order must wait Pw 1.000

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems

The advertising campaign of Smith, Jones, Johnson
and Thomas, Inc. (see problems (A) and (B)) was so
successful that business actually doubled. The mean
rate of stock orders arriving at the exchange is now 40
per hour and the company must decide how many floor
traders to employ. Each floor trader hired can process
an order in an average time of 2 minutes.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems

Based on a number of factors the brokerage firm
has determined the average waiting cost per minute for
an order to be $.50. Floor traders hired will earn $20 per
hour in wages and benefits. Using this information
compare the total hourly cost of hiring 2 traders with
that of hiring 3 traders.

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines

Total Hourly Cost
= (Total salary cost per hour)
+ (Total hourly cost for orders in the system)
= ($20 per trader per hour) x (Number of traders)
+ ($30 waiting cost per hour) x (Average number of
orders in the system)
= 20k + 30L.
Thus, L must be determined for k = 2 traders and
for k = 3 traders with  = 40/hr. and  = 30/hr. (since
the average service time is 2 minutes (1/30 hr.).

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Cost of Two Servers

1
P0 
k  1 (  /  )n ( /  )k k
  ( )
n 0 n! k! k  

P0 = 1 / [1+(1/1!)(40/30)]+[(1/2!)(40/30)2(60/(60-40))]

= 1 / [1 + (4/3) + (8/3)]

= 1/5

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Cost of Two Servers (continued)

Thus,

µ( /µ)k (40)(30)(40/30)2

Lq = P0 = (1/5) = 16/15
(k-1)!(kµ - )2 1!(60-40)2

L = Lq + ( /µ) = 16/15 + 4/3 = 12/5

Total Cost = (20)(2) + 30(12/5) = $112.00 per hour

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Cost of Three Servers

1
P0 
k  1 (  /  )n ( /  )k k
  ( )
n 0 n! k! k  

P0 = 1/[[1+(1/1!)(40/30)+(1/2!)(40/30)2]+
[(1/3!)(40/30)3(90/(90-40))] ]
= 1 / [1 + 4/3 + 8/9 + 32/45]
= 15/59

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 Cost of Three Servers (continued)

(30)(40)(40/30)3
Hence, Lq = (15/59) = 128/885 = .1446
(2!)(3(30)-40)2
Thus, L = 128/885 + 40/30 = 1308/885 (= 1.4780)

Total Cost = (20)(3) + 30(1308/885) = $104.35 per hour

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 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)

 System Cost Comparison

Wage Waiting Total

Cost/Hr Cost/Hr Cost/Hr
2 Traders $40.00 $82.00 $112.00
3 Traders 60.00 44.35 104.35

Thus, the cost of having 3 traders is less than that of

2 traders.

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