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Conditional Probability, Multiplication Rule, Independence

This document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts such as: - Conditional probability P(A|E) is the probability that event A occurs given that event E has occurred. - The multiplication rule states that P(A and E) = P(A|E) × P(E) = P(A) × P(E) if A and E are independent. - Two events A and B are independent if the probability of A occurring does not depend on whether B occurs. If events are independent, then P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). - Mutually independent events are independent of each other, so P(A

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43 views17 pages

Conditional Probability, Multiplication Rule, Independence

This document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts such as: - Conditional probability P(A|E) is the probability that event A occurs given that event E has occurred. - The multiplication rule states that P(A and E) = P(A|E) × P(E) = P(A) × P(E) if A and E are independent. - Two events A and B are independent if the probability of A occurring does not depend on whether B occurs. If events are independent, then P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). - Mutually independent events are independent of each other, so P(A

Uploaded by

Angelo Centeno
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY
DEFINITION
Let E be an arbitrary event in a
sample space Ω of P(E) ≥ 0, the
probability that event A occurs
once E has occurred is:

P(A|E) =
AXIOMS

 For any event A, the P(A|E) ≥ 0.


 For event Ω, the P(Ω|E) = 1.
 If A and B are mutually exclusive,
then P(A U B|E) = P(A|E) + P(B|E).
EXAMPLES
1.
Let a pair of fair dice be tossed, if
the sum is 6, find the probability
that one of the dice is 2.

Let P(A) be the event where one of the dice is 2.


Let P(E) be the event where the sum is 6.
P(A) = {(1,2), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2)}
P(E) = {(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)} = 5
P(A ꓵE) = {(2,4), (4,2)} = 2

P(A|E) =
2. A couple has two children.
Find the probability that
both children are boys if:

a. The younger child is a boy.


b. At least one of the children is a
boy.
a. P(A|E) =

b. P(A|E) =
3.
Three fair coins are
tossed. Find the
probability P that they
are all head if:
1
a. 𝑷 ( 𝑨ꓲ 𝑬 )=
The first coin is a head.
41
b. One of the coins is 𝑷 ( 𝑨ꓲ 𝑬 )=
70
head. 𝑷 ( 𝑨ꓲ 𝑬 )= =𝟎
4
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Definition
From P(A|E) =

So, = P(A|E) ● P(E)

And, = P(A) ● P(E)


1
Example
 A lot contains 12 items of which
4 are defective. Three items are
drawn at random, one after the
other. Find the probability that
all three are non-defective.

= ● ●

=
2
Example
 A box contains 3 mangoes, 4
bananas, and 5 durians.
a) Find the probability of picking
3 bananas or 2 durians.
b) Find the probability of picking
2 mangoes and 3 bananas.

+ =

=
3
Example
 The students in the class are
selected at random, one after
the other. Find the probability
that boys and girls alternate if:
a) There are 4 boys and 3 girls.
b) There are 3 boys and 3 girls.

= 2=
INDEPENDENCE
An event B is said to be
independent of an event A if
the probability that B occurs is
not influenced by whether A
has or has not occurred.
INDEPENDENCE
from P(A|B) =

= P(A) ● P(B)
THEOREM
• If A and B are independent events, then
the following are also independent
events.


MUTUALLY
INDEPENDENT
Events A, B, and C are
mutually independent if,
 They are pairwise
independent.
 P(A B C) = P(A) •P(B) •P(C)
EXAMPLE
Let a fair coin be tossed three times.
o Let A be the event that the first toss is heads.
o Let B be the event that the second toss is
heads.
o Let C be the event where exactly two heads
are tossed in a row.

Which of the following is/are independent?


a) P(A B) A & B are independent
b) P(A C) A & C are independent
c) P(B C) B & C are NOT independent
EXAMPLE
The probabilities that three men hit a target are 1/6,
1/4, 1/3 respectively. Each shoots once at the target.
a) Find the probability that exactly one of them hits
the target.
b) If only one hit the target, what is the probability
that it was the first man?

ANSWER
𝟑𝟏 𝟔
𝟕𝟐 𝟑𝟏

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