Session 11-15

Dr. Anup Kumar

DATA DISTRIBUTION
 Random Variables and Probability distributions
LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

 Define a random variable in order to differentiate between

a discrete distribution and a continuous distribution

 Determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of

a discrete distribution

 Solve problems based on random variables. 3

 Random Variables:

In most of these experiments, we were not only interested in the particular outcome that
occurs but rather in some number associated with that outcomes. For example

(i) In tossing two dice, we may be interested in the sum of the numbers on the two dice.

(ii) In tossing a coin 50 times, we may want the number of heads obtained.

(iii) In the experiment of taking out four articles (one after the other) at random from a lot
of 20 articles in which 6 are defective, we want to know the number of defectives in
the sample of four.
4
 Random Variables:
In all of the above experiments

We have a rule which assigns to each outcome of the experiment a single
real number. This single real number may vary with different outcomes of
the experiment. Hence, it is a variable.

Also its value depends upon the outcome of a random experiment. and,
hence, is called random variable

5
6
Example:1 Consider the experiment of tossing a coin two times in succession.
The sample space of the experiment is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

If X denotes the number of heads obtained, then X is a random variable and for each
outcome, its value is as given below :
X(HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X (TH) = 1, X (TT) = 0.

Again if Y denote the number of tails for each outcome of the above sample space S.

Then Y(HH) = 0, Y (HT) = 1, Y (TH) = 1, Y (TT) = 2

Thus, X and Y are two different random variables defined on the same sample space S.
7
8
Example:3

Consider the experiment of tossing a fair coin three times independently. Define the random
variable X to be the number of heads obtained in the three tosses. A complete enumeration
of the value of X for each point in the sample space is

9
Question:1 An urn contains 5 red and 2 black balls. Two balls are
randomly drawn without replacement. Let X represent the number of
black balls. What are the possible values of X? Is X a random
variable ?

Question:2 Let X represent the difference between the number of

heads and the number of tails obtained when a coin is tossed 6 times.
What are possible values of X?

10
Continuous random variables take on values at every point over a
given interval.
11
 Requirements for the
Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable x

1. p(x) ≥ 0 for all values of x

2.  p(x) = 1 where the summation of p(x) is over all

possible values of x.

12
 Discrete Probability Distribution Example

Question:1 Toss 2 coins. Count number of tails. Define random

variable and draw its graph. Find mean and variance.

Probability Distribution
Values, x Probabilities, p(x)
0 1/4 = .25
1 2/4 = .50
2 1/4 = .25
13
Visualizing Discrete Probability Distributions
Listing Table

{ (0, .25), (1, .50), (2, .25) } f(x) p(x)

# Tails Count
0 1 .25
Graph 1 2 .50
2 1 .25
p(x)
.50

.25
.00 x
0 1 2

14
 Summary Measures
1. Expected Value (Mean of probability distribution)
• Weighted average of all possible values
•  = x p(x)
2. Variance
• Weighted average of squared deviation about
mean
• 2 = (x p(x)
3. Standard Deviation
●   2 15
Expected Value & Variance Solution*

x p(x) x p(x) x– (x – ) 2

(x – ) p(x)
2

0 .25 0 –1.00 1.00 .25

1 .50 .50 0 0 0
2 .25 .50 1.00 1.00 .25
 = 1.0 2 = .50

 = .71
16
Question:2 Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52
cards. Find the probability distribution of the number of aces.

17
18
Question: 3 The table shown below is a discrete distribution that contains the number of crises that
could occur during the day in a department and the probability that each number will occur. Find mean
and variance.

19
20
Question:4
Let X denote the number of hours you study during a randomly selected school day. The
probability that X can take the values x, has the following form, where k is some
unknown constant.

21
22
The Binomial Distribution

23
 Binomial Distribution

A widely known discrete distribution constructed by determining the probabilities of X

successes in n trials (X<-n).

Characteristics of a Binomial Experiment

The experiment involves n identical trials

Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success and failure
Each trial is independent of the previous trials
The terms p and q remain constant throughout the experiment
p is the probability of a success on any one trial
q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one trial
24
Binomial Probability Distribution ---B( n, p)

 n  x n x n!
p ( x)    p q  p x (1  p ) n  x
 x x ! ( n  x )!

p(x) = Probability of x ‘Successes’

p = Probability of a ‘Success’ on a single trial
q = 1–p
n = Number of trials
x = Number of ‘Successes’ in n trials (x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n – x = Number of failures in n trials

25
 Binomial Distribution
n!
Probability
p q
X n X
P( X )  for 0  X  n
function X ! n  X !
Mean value
  n p
Variance and
standard
deviation
 2
 n pq

   2
 n pq
26
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Question-1 Toss 1 coin 5 times in a row. Note number of tails. What’s
the probability of 3 tails? Find mean and standard deviation.
n!
p( x)  p x (1  p ) n  x
x !( n  x )!

5!
p (3)  .53 (1  .5) 5 3
3!(5  3)!

 .3125

 =np=5*.5=2.5

 2  5 * .5 * .5  .125 27
Binomial Probability Table (Portion)

28
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
P(X)
1.0
n = 5 p = 0.1
Mean .5
  np .0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

Standard Deviation

  npq .6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.4
.2
.0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

29
 Graphs of Selected Binomial Distributions

n = 4 PROBABILITY P = 0.5
1.000
X 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.900
0.800
0 0.656 0.063 0.000 0.700
0.600
1 0.292 0.250 0.004 0.500

P(X)
0.400

2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.300

0.200

3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.100

0.000
0 1 2 3 4
4 0.000 0.063 0.656 X

P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600
0.500 0.500

P(X)
P(X)

0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X
30
Question:2 You’re a telemarketer selling service contracts for
Macy’s. You’ve sold 20 in your last 100 calls (p = .20). If you call
12 people tonight, what’s the probability of
A. No sales?
B. Exactly 2 sales?
C. At most 2 sales?
D. At least 2 sales?

31
Example:2

n = 12, p = .20
A. p(0) = .0687
B. p(2) = .2835
C. p(at most 2) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2) = .0687 + .2062 + .2835
= .5584
D. p(at least 2) = p(2) + p(3)...+ p(12)= 1 – [p(0) + p(1)]
= 1 – .0687 – .2062 = .7251

32
Question-3
A Gallup survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very
satisfied with their primary financial institution. Suppose that 25
financial consumers are sampled and if the Gallup survey result still
holds true today, what is the probability that exactly 19 are very satisfied
with their primary financial institution?

Solution:

33
Question-:4

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately 6% of all workers in

Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In conducting a random telephone
survey in Jackson, what is the probability of getting two or fewer unemployed
workers in a sample of 20?

Solution:

34
Question:5
Purchasing magazine reported the result of a survey in which
buyers were asked a series of questions with regard to
Internet usages. One question asked was how they would use
the Internet if security and other issue could be resolved.
78% said they would use it for pricing information, 75% said
they would use it to send purchase orders, and 70% said they
would use it for purchase order acknowledgements.
Assume that these percentages hold true for all buyers. A
researcher randomly samples 20 buyers and asks them how
they would use the Internet if security and other issues could
be resolved.
35
Questions:5
• What is the probability that exactly 14 of these buyers would
use the Internet for pricing information?

• What is the probability that all of the buyers would-use the

Internet to send purchase orders?

• What is probability that fewer than 12 would use the Internet

for purchase order acknowledgements?

36
a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14
Solution:
20
C14 (.78)14(.22)6 = 38,760(.030855)(.00011338)
= .1356

b) n = 20 p = .75 x = 20
20
C20 (.75)20(.25)0 = (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032

c) n = 20 p = .70 x < 12
Use table :
P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11) =

0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.001 + 0.004 +

0.012 +0 .031 + 0.065
= .113
37
 Poisson Distribution
Describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval
A discrete distribution and describes rare events
As n is large and p is small, the binomial probability can be
approximated by the Poisson probability function
Each occurrence is independent any other occurrences.
The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to infinity.
The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout the
experiment.

38
 Examples of Poisson-type situations include the following:

1. Number of hazardous waste sites per county in the United States

2. Number of sewing flaws per pair of cloths during production

3. Number of times a tire blows on a commercial airplane per week

39
 Poisson Distribution: Other Applications

• Arrivals at queuing systems

• airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles, baggage
• banks -- people, automobiles, loan applications
• computer file servers -- read and write operations

• Defects in manufactured goods

• number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded copper wire
• number of blemishes per square foot of painted surface
• number of errors per typed page
40
 Poisson Distribution P( ) 𝜆
• Probability function


P( X )  
X
e for X  0,1, 2,3,...
X!
where :
  long run average
e  2.718282... (the base of natural logarithms)

 Mean value  Variance  Standard deviation

   41
 Question:1
Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2
customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having
(a) 8 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(b) 9 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(c) 10 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?

Solution:l λ = 3.2 customers/4 minutes

42
 Question:2
A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2 customers every 4 minutes.
What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during an 8-minute
interval?

Solution:l λ = 3.2 customers/ 4 minutes

λ = 6.4 customers/ 8 minutes

43
 Approximating Binomial Problems by
the Poisson Distribution

Binomial problems with large sample sizes and small values of p, which
then generate rare events, are potential candidates for use of the Poisson
distribution.

As a rule of thumb, if n > 20 and n * p <7, the approximation is close

enough to use the Poisson distribution for binomial problems.

44
Question-3
Q. Suppose the probability of a bank making a mistake in processing a
deposit is .0003. If 10,000 deposits (n) are audited, what is the probability
that more than 6 mistakes were made in processing deposits?

45
Question:4
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables

If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an average weekday

and sales of houses on weekdays are Poisson distributed.
 what is the probability of selling exactly four houses in one
day?
 What is the probability of selling no houses in one day?
 What is the probability of selling more than five houses in
one day?
 What is the probability of selling 2 or more houses in one
day? 46
 
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680   1. 6
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6
7
0.0000
0.0000
0.0035
0.0008
0.0047
0.0011
0.0504
0.0216
P( X  4 )  0. 0551
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10
11
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0008
0.0002 𝑃 ( 𝑋=0)=0.2019
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

𝑃 ( 𝑋 >5 )=0

47
 Question:5

On Monday mornings, the First National Bank only has one teller window open
for deposits and withdrawals. Experience has shown that the average number of
arriving customers in a four-minute interval on Monday mornings is 2.8, and each
teller can serve more than that number efficiently. These random arrivals at this
bank on Monday mornings are Poisson distributed.

What is the probability that on a Monday morning exactly six customers will
arrive in a four-minute interval?
What is the probability that no one will arrive at the bank to make a deposit or
withdrawal during a four-minute interval?
48
Question:6

According to the United National Environmental Program and

World Health Organization, in Bombay, India, air pollution
standards for particulate matter are exceeded an average of 5.6
days in every three-week period. Assume that the distribution of
number of days exceeding the standards per three-week period is
Poisson distributed.
 What is the probability that the standard is not exceeded on
any day during a three-week period?

 What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly 6

days of a six-week period?

 What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly

15 or more days during a three-week period? If this outcome
actually occurred, what might you conclude? 49
 Solution: 6

 = 5.6 days3 weeks

a) Prob(x=0   = 5.6):from Table = .0037

b) Prob(x=6   = 5.6):from Table A = .1584

c) Prob(x > 15   = 5.6):

x Prob.
15 .0005
16 .0002
17 .0001
x > 15 .0008
Because this probability is so low, if it actually occurred, the researcher
would actually have to question the Lambda value as too low for this
period.
50
Mean = λ, Variance= λ and
Standard Deviation= λ

51
 Doubt Session
1.Discussion on Project
2.Demo in Excel
3.Discussion on Probability Distribution (2-
Questions)
4.Discussion on Binomial Distribution (2-
Questions)
5.Discussion on Poisson Distribution (2-
Questions)
52
 Probability Distribution
Question1. Find the probability distribution table and probability
distribution graphs for the number of heads if a coin tossed 5 times.
Answer  In this question, X is the random variable X that
: represents the number of heads.

 So the possible value of random variable in this

experiment is {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.
Note: It is discrete or continuous random variables.
53
 Probability Distribution Graph
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
P(X)

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Random Variables (X)
54
 X P(X) X*P(X) (X-Mean)^2 ((X-Mean)^2)*P(X)
0.00 0.03 0.00 6.23 0.19
1.00 0.16 0.16 2.24 0.35
2.00 0.31 0.62 0.25 0.08
3.00 0.31 0.94 0.25 0.08
4.00 0.16 0.62 2.26 0.35
5.00 0.03 0.16 6.27 0.19
       
  Mean 2.50  
  Variance 1.25  

  Standard Deviation 1.12  

55
Question2. Probability Distribution

56
Solution: 2. The expected payoff for a
$1 ticket in this game is
60.2 cents. If a person plays
the game for a long time, he
or she could expect to
average about 60 cents in
winnings.

In the long run, the

participant will lose about
$1.00 - .602 = .398, or
about 40 cents a game. Of
course, an individual will
never win 60 cents in any
one game.
57
Solution 2.

58
 Binomial Distribution
Question:1 According to Information Resources, which publishes data on market share
for various products, Oreos control about 10% of the market for cookie brands. Suppose 20
purchasers of cookies are selected randomly from the population. What is the probability
that fewer than four purchasers choose Oreos?
Solution:
For this problem, n = 20, p = .10, and P(x< 4)
1
Determining the probability of getting x < 4 involves summing the probabilities for x = 0,
1, 2, and 3.
If 10% of all cookie
purchasers prefer Oreos
and 20 cookie purchasers
are randomly
selected, about 86.7% of
the time fewer than four of
the 20 will select Oreos.

59
Question:2 In the past few years, outsourcing overseas has become more frequently used than ever
before by U.S. companies. However, outsourcing is not without problems. A recent survey by
Purchasing indicates that 20% of the companies that outsource overseas use a consultant. Suppose 5
companies that outsource overseas are randomly selected.

a. What is the probability that exactly five companies that outsource overseas use a consultant?

b. What is the probability that more than 4 companies that outsource overseas use a consultant?

c. What is the probability that none of the companies that outsource overseas use a consultant?

d. What is the probability that between 3 and 5 (inclusive) companies that outsource overseas use a
consultant?

e. Construct a graph for this binomial distribution. In light of the graph and the expected value,
explain why the probability results from parts (a) through (d) were obtained.

60
Solution:2

61
 Poisson Distribution
Question:1 A medical researcher estimates that .00004 of the population has a rare blood
disorder. If the researcher randomly selects 100,000 people from the population,

 What is the probability that three people will have the rare blood disorder?

 What is the probability that more than 2 people will have the rare blood disorder?

Solution: P=.00004, n=100,000, λ=.00004*100,000=4

n=100,000>20 and n*p=4<7. Here, we can use Poisson
distribution in the place of Binomial distribution.
−𝜆 𝑥 −4 3
𝑒
𝜆 𝑒 4 ( 𝒃 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑿 >𝟐 ) =𝟏 − ¿
( 𝑎 ) 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =3 )= =
𝑥! 3!
62
Question:2 The average number of annual trips per family to amusement parks in the
United States is Poisson distributed, with a mean of 0.6 trips per year. What is the
probability of randomly selecting an American family and finding the following?

 The family did not make a trip to an amusement park last year.
 The family took exactly one trip to an amusement park last year.
 The family took two or more trips to amusement parks last year.
 The family took three or fewer trips to amusement parks over a three-year period.
 The family took exactly four trips to amusement parks during a six-year period.

63
 Solution
:
λ=0.6 trip/year, Let X represents number of trips each year.
− 0.6
(a) P(X=0)= 𝑒 ( 0.6 ) ^ 0
=0.5488
− 0.6
0! ^ 1
(b) P(X=1)= 𝑒 ( 0.6 )
=0.3293
1!
(c) P(X=>2)=1-P(X<2)=1-[P(0)+P(1)]=0.1219

(d) λ=0.6*3=1.8, P(X<=3)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)= 0.1653+ 0.2975+

0.2678+0.1607

(e) λ=0.6*6=3.6, P(X=4)= 0.1912 64

65
66
 Functions in Excel
1. NORM.DIST GIVES AREA LEFT TO X ( PUT X, MEAN, STANDARD DEVIATION,1)

2. NORM.S.DIST GIVES AREA LEFT TO Z ( PUT Z)

3. NORM.INV GIVES X ( PUT LEFT SIDE AREA, MEAN, STANDARD DEVIATION,1)

4. NORM.S.INV GIVES Z ( PUT LEFT SIDE AREA)

Question:1

If the data follow Normal distribution then find the area left to the point
x=100 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is 100

Answer
=Norm.Dist(100,150,100,1)
=0.3085
Question:2
If the data follow Normal distribution then find the area left to
the point x=100 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is
100. Use the concept of standard normal distribution.

Answer
𝒙 −𝝁 𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟏𝟓𝟎 =Norm.S.Dist(-0.5,1)
𝒛= = =− 𝟎 .𝟓
𝝈 𝟏𝟎𝟎
=0.3085
Question:2

In the given Normal distribution curve, Find the area right to the point
x=100 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is 10

Answer:
P(X>100)=1-P(X=<100)
=1-Norm.Dist(100,150,10,1)
=0.9999997
Question:3
In the given Normal distribution curve, Find the area between x=100
and x=200 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is 10

Answer: P(100<X<200)=P(X<200)-P(X<100)
=Norm.Dist(200,150,10,1)-Norm.Dist(100,150,10,1)
=0.9999994
Question:4

In the given Normal distribution curve, Find the area right to the point
x=100 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is 10. Use the
concept of standard normal distribution.

𝑍=
𝜎 (
𝑥 − 𝜇 100 −150
=
10 )=−5

Answer: Norm.S.Dist(-5,1)=0.000000287
Question:5

In the given Normal distribution curve, Find the area between x=100 and
x=200 while the mean is 150 and standard deviation is 10. Use concept
of Standard Normal Distribution

Answer: Norm.D.Dist(5,1)-Norm.S.Dist(-5,1)=0.999999427
Question-6
1. If in the given standard normal distribution graph, coloured area is
.30, then find the value of z.

2. If in the given normal distribution graph, mean is 100, standard

deviation is 10 and coloured area is .30, then find the value of x.

Answer: 1 NORM.S.INV (0.30)

Answer:2 NORM.INV(0.30,100,10)
Question-7
 If in the given normal distribution graph, coloured area is .60, then
find the value of z.

 If in the given normal distribution graph with mean 100 and standard
deviation is 10, coloured area is .60, then find the value of x.

Solution (a): Norm.S.Inv(.60,1)

(b) Norm. inv(0.60,100,10,1)
Assignment Questions:1
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION APPROACH
(Question-1)

𝜇=494 , 𝜎=100
¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 >700 ) =1−𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤700 )
¿
¿
 STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION APPROACH
(Question-1)

𝑥 − 𝜇 700 − 494
𝑧= = =2.06
𝜎 100 𝑃 ( 𝑋 >700 )=𝑃 ( 𝑍 >2.06 )=1− 𝑃 ( 𝑍 ≤ 2.06 )
¿
¿
                         =1 − 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚 . 𝑆 . 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡 ( 2.06,1 )
=0.0197
Assignment Questions:2
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION APPROACH
(Question-2)

¿
What if the data (Population) is not normally distributed ?
Central Limit Theorem: The Central Limit Theorem states that
the distribution of the sample mean approaches to normal
distribution provided the sample size is more than 30.
 (
𝑋 ∼ 𝑁 𝜇,
𝜎
√𝑛 )
As we increase the sample size, the graph of sample
mean converges to Normal Distribution

𝑋 ∼ 𝑁 𝜇,
(𝜎
√𝑛 )
Question:1 A population has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If a random
sample of 64 is taken, what is the probability that the sample mean is

a. Greater than 52
b. Less than 51
c. Less than 47

Answer (a): =10, (

𝑥∼ 𝑁 𝜇,
√ 𝑛 )
𝜎 𝑺𝒕𝒅 (𝑺𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒏)= 𝝈 = 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟎
√ 𝒏 √ 𝟔𝟒 𝟖

P(=1-P(

Answer (b): =10,

P(

Answer (c) : P( =.008198

 𝑋 𝑍

𝑿 −𝝁
𝝈 𝒁∼
𝝈
√𝒏
𝑋 𝑍
Question:1 A population has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If a random sample of 64
is taken, what is the probability that the sample mean is Greater than 52. Use Standard Normal
Concept.

𝑥 −𝜇 52 −50 2
𝑧= = = =1.6
𝜎 10 10
√𝑛 √ 64 8
¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑥 >52 )= 𝑃 ( 𝑧 >1.6 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝑧 ≤ 1.6 )
=1 − 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚 . 𝑆 . 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡 ( 1.6,1 )
=1 −0.9452 =0.0548
Question:1 A population has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If a
random sample of 64 is taken, what is the probability that the sample mean is Less
than 51. Use Standard Normal Concept.

𝒙 −𝝁 𝟓𝟏 −𝟓𝟎
𝒛= = =𝟎 . 𝟖𝟎
𝝈 𝟏𝟎
√𝒏 𝟖
𝑷 ( 𝒙 <𝟓𝟏 ) =𝑷 ( 𝒛 <𝟎 . 𝟖 ) =𝑵𝒐𝒓𝒎. 𝑺. 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕 (𝟎 . 𝟖 , 𝟏)=𝟎 .𝟓𝟑𝟗𝟖
Question:1A population has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If a
random sample of 64 is taken, what is the probability that the sample mean is Less
than 47. Use Standard Normal Concept.

𝑥 − 𝜇 47 − 50
𝑧= = =− 2.40
𝜎 10
√𝑛 8
¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑥 <47 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑧 <−2.40 )=𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚 . 𝑆 . 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡 (−2.40,1)=0.0082
Question: 1 Population is normally distributed, with a mean of 23.45 and a standard deviation of 3.8.
What is the probability of each of the following?

a. Taking a sample of size 10 and obtaining a sample mean of 22 or more

𝒙=𝟐𝟐
𝜎 3.8
𝜇=23.45 , 𝜎 =3.8 , = =1.20
√ 𝑛 √10
𝑃 ( 𝑥 >22 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝑥 ≤ 22 ) =1− 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚 . 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡 ( 22,23.45,1 .20,1 )
¿ 1 −.11346
¿ .88654
Question: 1 Population is normally distributed, with a mean of 23.45 and a standard deviation of 3.8. What is the
probability of each of the following?

b. Taking a sample of size 4 and getting a sample mean of more than 26

𝒙=𝟐𝟔
𝜎 3.8
𝜇=23.45 , 𝜎=3.8 , = =1.9
√𝑛 √4
𝑃 ( 𝑥 >26 )=1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑥 ≤ 26 ) =1− 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚 . 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡 ( 26,23.45,1 .9,1 )
¿ 1− .9832
¿ .01679
 Assignment Questions:2
Question: 2 Tompkins Associates reports that the mean clear height for
a Class A warehouse in the United States is 22 feet. Suppose clear heights
are normally distributed and that the standard deviation is 4 feet. A Class
A warehouse in the United States is randomly selected.

a. What is the probability that the clear height is greater than 17 feet?

b. What is the probability that the clear height is less than 13 feet?

c. What is the probability that the clear height is between 25 and 31 feet?
Question: 2a Tompkins Associates reports that the mean clear height for a Class A
warehouse in the United States is 22 feet. Suppose clear heights are normally distributed and
that the standard deviation is 4 feet. A Class A warehouse in the United States is randomly
selected. What is the probability that the clear height is greater than 17 feet?

𝒙=𝟏𝟕

𝜇=22 , 𝜎=4
𝑃 ( 𝑥 >17 )=1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑋 <17 )
¿
Question: 2 Tompkins Associates reports that the mean clear height for a Class A
warehouse in the United States is 22 feet. Suppose clear heights are normally
distributed and that the standard deviation is 4 feet. A Class A warehouse in the United
States is randomly selected. What is the probability that the clear height is less than 13
feet?

𝒙=𝟏𝟑
𝜇=22 , 𝜎 = 4
𝑃 ( 𝑥 <13 ) = 𝑃 (12,22,4,1 )
¿
Question: 2 Tompkins Associates reports that the mean clear height for a Class A
warehouse in the United States is 22 feet. Suppose clear heights are normally
distributed and that the standard deviation is 4 feet. A Class A warehouse in the United
States is randomly selected. What is the probability that the clear height is between 25
and 31 feet?

X=25 x=31
 Assignment Questions:3
Question: 3 According to a report by Scarborough Research, the
average monthly household cellular phone bill is $60. Suppose local
monthly household cell phone bills are normally distributed with a
standard deviation of $11.35.

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected monthly cell

phone bill is more than $85?

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected monthly cell

phone bill is between $45 and $70?
Question: 3a According to a report by Scarborough Research, the average monthly
household cellular phone bill is $60. Suppose local monthly household cell phone bills are
normally distributed with a standard deviation of $11.35. What is the probability that a
randomly selected monthly cell phone bill is more than $85?

X=85

μ =60 , σ =11.35
¿
Question: 3b According to a report by Scarborough Research, the average monthly household
cellular phone bill is $60. Suppose local monthly household cell phone bills are normally
distributed with a standard deviation of $11.35. What is the probability that a randomly selected
monthly cell phone bill is between $45 and $70?

X=45 x=70

μ=60 , σ =11.35
P ( 45 < x <70 ) =P ( x< 70 ) − P ( x <45 )
¿
 Statistical Inference

Hypothesis Testing for Single

Populations

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Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by
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Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning
 What is Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing is an technique in statistics whereby

an analyst tests an assumption regarding a population
parameter.

The methodology employed by the analyst depends on

the nature of the data used and the reason for the
analysis. 

Hypothesis testing is used to assess the plausibility of

a hypothesis by using sample data.

We conduct hypothesis testing for unknown and then use

sample to test it.
9-107
All statistical hypotheses consist of two parts, a null
hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis. These two parts
are constructed to contain all possible outcomes of the
experiment or study.

Null Hypothesis: The null hypothesis states that the

“null” condition exists; that is, there is nothing new
happening, the old theory is still true, the old standard is
correct, and the system is in control.

Alternate Hypothesis: The alternative hypothesis, on the

other hand, states that the new theory is true, there are new
standards, the system is out of control, and/or something is
happening.
9-108