Probability
Probability
Recall:
• A set is a meaningful collection of things.
• An element or member of a set is a thing that belongs to the set.
• For any two sets A and B, if every statement of set A is also an element
of set B, then set A is a subset of B.
Recall:
List all the elements or the results when you perform the following
activities:
1. Tossing a coin.
Answer: {Head, Tail}
2. Rolling a die.
Answer: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Tossing a coin and rolling a die are examples of random experiment.
The result is called an outcome of the experiment and the set of
possible outcomes are called the sample space.
Definition
• Experiment – a process that has a number of distinct possible
outcomes in which the result cannot be predicted with certainty.
• Outcome – any possible result of the experiment.
• Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Example #1
List all the possible outcomes for the experiment of tossing two coins (a 5-peso coin and a
10-peso coin).
Solution:
• The possible outcomes for the 5-peso coin are a “head” or a “tail”
• The possible outcomes for the 10-peso coin are a “head” or a “tail”.
The list of all possible outcomes for the experiment is shown in the table below.
5-peso coin 10-peso coin Outcome
H H H H (both heads)
(5-peso coin head,
H T H T 10-peso coin tail)
(5-peso coin tail,
T H T H 10-peso coin head)
T T T T (both tails)
Hence, the sample space is the set {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Example #2
List the sample space when a pair of dice are (Dice is the plural for die).
Solution:
Use a grid to show all the possible outcomes.
Die 2
Die 1
Example #2
Representing the dots in the face of the dice by numbers, the sample space is
Hence, the sample space is {12, 17, 21, 27, 71, 72}. The sample space
contains 6 elements.
Events
Definition
• Event – an event is a subset of the sample space.
Considering the experiment of tossing a dice. We may be interested in
the event, “ a sum of 7.” In this case we are satisfied if (1,6), (2,5), (3,4),
(4,3), (5,2), and (6,1) occur as shown below.
Probability
Definition
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning
numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to
occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The
probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1.
Examples:
1) Natural Disasters
2) Card Games
3) Sports Statistics
4) Winning the Lottery
5) Predicting the Weather
Certain 75% Even 25% Impossible
n( E) 6 1
P ( E)= P ( ∑ of 7 ) = P ( ∑ of 7 ) =
n( S) 36 6
Example:
In tossing a three coins , what is the probability of getting a 2 heads?
3rd coin
n( E)
H HHH P ( E)=
2nd coin
n( S)
1st coin H 4
T HHT P ( 2 heads ) =
H H HTH 8
T
1
T HTT P ( 2 heads ) =
2
H THH
H
T T THT
T H TTH
T TTT
Example:
A committee of two is to be chosen at random from a group of 5
students consisting of 3 boys and 2 girls. What is the probability that a
committee of two boys will be chosen?
n(E)
P ( E)=
B1 , B2 , B 3 , G 1 , G2 n( S)
3
P ( 2 boys ) =
10
, ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
Example:
A committee of two is to be chosen at random from a group of 5
students consisting of 3 boys and 2 girls. What is the probability that a
committee consisting of 1 boy and 1 girl will be chosen?
n(E)
P ( E)=
B1 , B2 , B 3 , G 1 , G2 n( S)
6
P ( girl ∧boy )=
10
, , 3
P ( girl ∧boy )=
, , 5
, ,
, ,
, ,
Example:
In rolling a two dice, what is the probability of having the same number
on both dice?
n( E) 6 1
P ( E)= P ( s 𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 ) = P ( s 𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 ) =
n( S) 36 6
Example:
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the
probability of drawing a red Ace.
n(E) 2 1
P ( E)= P ( red ace ) = P ( red ace ) =
n( S) 52 26
Example:
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the
probability of drawing a Queen.
n(E) 4 1
P ( E)= P ( queen ) = P ( queen ) =
n( S) 52 13
Example:
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the
probability of drawing a Queen of hearts.
n(E) 1
P ( E)= P ( queen ♥ )=
n( S) 52
Example:
One letter of the name “EXTRA” is selected at random. Find the
probability that the letter selected is a consonant.
n(E) 3
P ( E)= P ( consonant )=
n( S) 5
Example:
In ACTS 12:7 Convenience Store, if a customer spends a minimum of
1000 pesos in a single receipt, he has the chance to spin a wheel to win
a prize. The wheel is divided into 4 equal parts and the prizes are
written on it. Find the probability that a customer who spins the wheel
wins a shopping bag.
n(E) 1
P ( E)= P ( shopping bag )=
4
50 pesos
voucher School
Supplies n( S)
Umbrella
Shopping
Bag
Example:
In tossing a three coins, what is the probability of having at least one
head? 3 coin
rd
n( E)
H HHH P ( E)=
2 coin
n( S)
nd
1 coin
st H 7
T HHT P ( head )=
H H HTH 8
T
T HTT
H THH
H
T T THT
T H TTH
T TTT
Answer each problem.
1) There are 3 red pens, 4 blue pens, 2 black, and 5 green pens in a
drawer. Suppose you choose a pen at random.
a. What is the probability that the pen chosen is red?
b. Not a diamond.
{ }
( 1,1 ) , (1,2 ) , ( 1,3 ) , ( 1,4 ) , ( 1,5 ) ,(1,6)
( 2,1 ) , ( 2,2 ) , ( 2,3 ) , ( 2,4 ) , ( 2,5 ) ,(2,6)
𝑆= ( 3,1 ) , ( 3,2 ) , ( 3,3 ) , ( 3,4 ) , ( 3,5 ) ,(3,6)
( 4,1 ) , ( 4,2 ) , ( 4,3 ) , ( 4,4 ) , ( 4,5 ) ,(4,6)
( 5,1 ) , (5,2 ) , ( 5,3 ) , ( 5,4 ) , ( 5,5 ) ,(5,6)
( 6,1 ) , ( 6,2 ) , ( 6,3 ) , ( 6,4 ) , ( 6,5 ) ,(6,6)
n( E) 15 5
P ( E)= P ( 1 st <2 nd )= P ( 1 st <2 nd )=
n( S) 36 12
The spinner may stop on any one of the eight numbered sectors of the
circle. Use the spinner to find the probability of each outcome.
1. P(2)
2. P(white) 8 7
1 6
3. P(9) 2 5
0 3 4
4. P(not white)
Example:
A bag contains x red paper clips, (x + 4) blue paper clips and (3x – 11)
white paper clips.
a. Find the total number of clips in the bag in terms of x.
x + (x + 4) + (3x – 11)
= 5x - 7
b. A clip is drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability that the
clip is blue.