Topic 4.

PROBABILITY
Sample Space
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Permutations
Combinations
Objectives
Count efficiently by applying the
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Count using permutation and combination.
Determine the probability of a given event.
Apply the different laws of probability.
Interpret probability values.
Knowledge of counting the number of ways
by which events can happen
is important in the study of
probability. The elements of
a sample space can be
systematically listed by
means of a tree diagram.
Problem

How many 3-digit numbers

can be formed from the digits
1, 2 and 3 if repetition of
digits is not allowed?
Solution:
Hundredth Digit Tenth Digit Unit Digit Number
2 3 123
1
3 2 132

1 3 213
2
3 1 231

1 2 312
3
2 1 321

Answer: 6
numbers
The fundamental principle of
counting provides a rule in
determining the number of
chance occurrence of events.
This is known as the
multiplication rule.
MULTIPLICATION RULE
If one thing can be
done in n1 ways and a
second thing can be
done in n2 ways, then
the sequence of things
can be done together in
n1n2 ways.
Problem

How many 3-digit numbers can be

formed from the digits 1, 2 and 3 if
repetition of digits is not allowed?

Solution:

3 x 2 x 1 = 6 numbers
(H) (T) (U)
 Problem
If the call letters of radio stations must
begin with the letter D, the second
must be W, X, Y, or Z, while the third
and fourth may be any letter, how
many different stations can there be if:
a)repetition of a letter is not allowed
b) repetitions are allowed

Solution:

a) 1 x 4 x 24 x 23 = 2,208 stations
b) 1 x 4 x 26 x 26 = 2,704 stations
Problem

A coin and a die are tossed.

Then a card is picked from a deck.
How many results are possible?

Solution:

2 x 6 x 52 = 624 results
(coin) (die) (card)
PERMUTATION
Other rules on counting deal with the
number of arrangements of items
with regard to the order of the items.
A permutation is a group of items
where the composition of the group
and the order of the items within the
group are both important.
The number of permutations of n
objects taken k at a time, P(n,k), is given
by:

n!
P (n, k ) 
( n  k )!
Note:

n! (n factorial) = the product of integers

from 1 to n
0! = factorial of zero = 1
Problem

How many number of permutations of

the first 3 letters of the alphabet are
there if the letters are taken 2 at a time?
Solution
Using Tree Diagram

1st Letter 2nd Letter Letter Combination

B AB
A
C AC
A BA
B
C BC
A CA
C
B CB

Answer: 6
combination
 Using Multiplication Rule (FPC):

3 x 2 = 6 combinations
(1st Letter) (2nd Letter) (Answer)
Using Permutation Formula:

n! where n = 3
P (n, k ) 
( n  k )! k=2

3! 3 .2 .1
P 3 , 2   
( 3  2 )! 1
P (3 ,2 )  6 combinations
Problem
There are 7 children in a room, and there
are 4 seats in a row. Children are to be
assigned to these seats.
a) How many seating arrangements can be devised?

b) How many seating

arrangements can be
devised if Amy and Lilia
cannot be seated
alongside one another?
Solution
n!
a) P ( n , k )  where n=7
( n  k )! k=4

7! 7!
P (7 ,4 )  
( 7  4 )! 3!
P (7 ,4 )  8 4 0 w a y s
b) Assume Amy to precede Lilia = 1 position
This will make the no. of children(n) = 6
And the no. of seats (k) = 3

n! 6!
P (n, k )  
( n  k )! ( 6  3)!
P ( 6 ,3 )  1 2 0 w a y s
If the no. of seating arrangements
in which Amy and Lilia are seated
together = 120

The no. of seating arrangements in

which Amy and Lilia are not seated
together is equal to:

840 – 120 = 720 ways

If among n objects, j items are alike, k
other items are also alike, and still l
items are alike and so on, then the
number of distinct permutations of the
items taken all together is:

n!
P ( n , n ( j , k ,l ) ) 
j! k ! l !
Problem

How many number of

permutations of the 8 letters
of the word PARABOLA are
there if the letters are taken
all at a time?
Solution

n =8 n!
P (n, n( j) ) 
j = 3 a’s j!
8!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 3 ) ) 
3!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 3 ) )  6 7 2 0
Problem

In how many ways can the letters of

the word CALCULUS be arranged?

How many of these arrangements

begin and end with the same letter?
Solution

n!
n =8 P ( n , n ( j , k ,l ) ) 
j = 2 c’s j! k ! l !
k = 2 l’s 8!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 2 , 2 , 2 ) ) 
l = 2 u’s 2 !2!2!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 2 ,2 , 2 ) )  5 0 4 0
How many of these arrangements
begin and end with the same letter?
CALCULUS
a) begin and end w/ letter C
C_ _ _ _ _ _C (Arrange 6 letters)

n =6 6!
P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 l’s 2!2!
l = 2 u’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
 CALCULUS
b) begin and end w/ letter L
L_ _ _ _ _ _L (Arrange 6 letters)

n =6
6!
P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 c’s 2!2!
l = 2 u’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
 CALCULUS
c) begin and end w/ letter U
U_ _ _ _ _ _U (Arrange 6 letters)

n =6
6!
P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 c’s 2!2!
l = 2 l’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
Summary:

C_ _ _ _ _ _C 180
L_ _ _ _ _ _L 180
U_ _ _ _ _ _U 180
Total No. of Ways: 540 ways
COMBINATION
A combination is a group of objects
where the composition of the group, but
not the order, is important. The number
of combinations of n objects taken k at a
time, C(n,k), is given by:

n!
C (n, k ) 
( n  k )! k !
Problem
An instructor has prepared a set of 12
problems and will include 8 of these
problems in an examination. How many
examinations can be formed?

n!
C (n, k ) 
n = 12
( n  k )! k !
k=8 12!
C (12 ,8 )   495
4 ! 8!
Problem

In how many ways can we choose 6

people including at least 2 women out
of a group of 7 men and 4 women?

3 possible groupings:
1) 2 women + 4 men
2) 3 women + 3 men
3) 4 women + 2 men
Solution:  7 men and 4 women

I. Groupings of 2 women & 4 men

C (4,2) x C (7,4)

4! 7!
No. of ways = x = 210
2! 2! 3! 4!
 7 men and 4 women
II. Groupings of 3 women & 3 men

C (4,3) x C (7,3)

4! 7!
No. of ways = x = 140
1! 3! 4! 3!
 7 men and 4 women
III. Groupings of 4 women & 2 men

C (4,4) x C (7,2)

4! x 7!
No. of ways = = 21
0! 4! 5! 2!
Summary

3 groupings: No. of Ways:

1) 2 women + 4 men 210
2) 3 women + 3 men 140
3) 4 women + 2 men 21
Answer: 371
Problem

A bag contains 6 red balls and 4

white balls. In how many ways can
one draw:
a) 2 white balls
b) 2 balls of different color?
c) 2 balls of the same color?
d) any two balls?
Solution
# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

a) 2 white balls

4!
C ( 4,2 )  = 6 ways
2! 2!
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

b) 2 balls of different color?

6! 4!
C ( 6 ,1) x C ( 4 ,1)  x
5! 1! 3! 1!

C ( 6 ,1 ) x C ( 4 ,1 )  2 4 w a y s
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

c) 2 balls of the same color

6!
both red: C ( 6 , 2 )  = 15 ways
4! 2!
4!
both white: C ( 4 , 2 )  = 6 ways
2! 2!
same color: 15 + 6 = 21 ways
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

d) any 2 balls
10!
C (10 , 2 ) 
8! 2!
C (1 0 , 2 )  4 5 w a y s