Customer Profitability Analysis: Prof. Chhabi Sinha

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Customer profitability analysis

Prof. Chhabi Sinha


Retained customers generate considerably
more profit than new ones
Profit

Profit from price premium

Profit from referrals

Profit from
reduced operating costs

Profit from
increased purchases

Base profit

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years

Customer Source: Bain & Co.


acquisition
cost
Impact of customer retention rate
on customer lifetime
20
18
16
14
12
avg customer
10
lifetime(in yrs) 8
avg. cust lifetime
6
4
2
0
50 60 70 80 90 100
Retention rate(%)
Link between the customer
retention rate and the average
customer lifetime
• Average customer lifetime(years)
= 1/ 1-retention rate
e.g. If the customer retention rate is 90
percent per annum(meaning that we lose 10
percent of our existing customer base each
year), then the average customer lifetime
will be ten years
Linking profitability and loyalty
• High profitability and Shortterm
customers(Butterflies)
• Low Profitability and Short vterm
customers(Strangers)
• Long term customers and Low
profitability(Barnacles)
• High profitability and Long term customers
(True friends)
Butterflies
True friends
-good fit between
customer’s offerings and -good fit between
customer’s needs customer’s offerings
and customer’s needs
-high profit potential
-highest profit potential

Strangers
Barnacles
-little fit between
-limited fit between company’s
company ‘s offerings and
offerings and customer’s needs
customer’s needs
-low profit potential
-lowest profit potential
Choosing a Loyalty strategy for
different customers
• Butterflies
-Aim to achieve transactional satisfaction
not attitudinal loyalty
-milk the accounts only as long as they are
active
-key challenge is to cease investing soon
enough
Continued..
• Strangers
-make no investment in these relationships
-make profit on every transaction
Continued..
• Barnacles
-measure both the size and share of wallet
-If share of wallet is low, focus on up selling
and cross selling
-If size of wallet is small, impose strict cost
controls
Continued..
• True friends
-communicate consistently but not too often
-build both attitudinal and behavioral loyalty
-delight these customers to nurture,defend and
retain them
A basic issue among researchers is
whether to define brand loyalty in
terms of
- attitudinal measures or
-Behavioural measures
OPERATIONALIZATION OF
VARIABLES
• Attitudinal Component

-Product and Service quality


-Customer Satisfaction
-Trust
-Commitment
Operationalization of
Behavioural Loyalty
• Recency
• Frequency
• Monetary
• Length of the relationship
• Number of brands used
Research findings ..
• Customers of the grocery chain who scored
high on both loyalty measures where 54%
more likely to be active word-of-mouth
marketers and 33 % more likely to be
passive word-of-mouth marketers than
those who scored high on behavioural
loyalty alone(Article “ The Mismanagement
of Customer Loyalty, HBR July 2002)
RFM(Recency,
Frequency,Monetary Value-Poor
measure of customer loyalty
• Patterns of buying behaviour for frequently
buying goods are quite different than those
for infrequently bought goods.
• RFM cannot distinguish between the two
• It ignores the pacing of a customer’s
interactions, the time between each
purchase
RFM continued..
• Monetary value component is almost
always based on revenue rather than
profitability
• But the decision to continue investing in
customer relationships needs to be based on
customer’s profitablity not the revenue they
generate
Model of buying behavior
• Special case of ‘event-history modelling’
• In the present context, ‘event’ will indicate
Purchasing
-Like most statistical methods, it figures the
probability that some future event will
occur based on statistical patterns observed
empirically in the past
Event History Model

To compute the probability that the customer will keep on


purchasing
Formula is t raised to the power n
Where n=number of purchases the customer made in the entire
time period(say the whole year)
And t =fraction of the period represented by the time between his
first purchase and the last one
Application of customer
profitability analysis
-FedEx analyzed the returns on its business for about 30
large customers that generate about 10 percent of its total
volume
-It found that certain customers including some requiring
lots of residential deliveries weren’t bringing in as much
revenue as they had promised when they first negotiated
discounted rates
-FedEx demanded that some customers pay higher rates
A couple of big customers who refused to budge were told
they could take their shipping business elsewhere
Application of customer
profitabilty analsis
Thomas Cook divided its customers into
A’s(those who bring in $750 or more in annual revenues),
Bs(those bringing in $250-$749)
And Cs(those who bring in less than $250)
-It found that 80% of its customers were C’s.
-when C customers are asked demand consuming services e.g.
asking an agent to research a trip they’re not positive they want to
take, they are asked for a $25 deposit.
-This differentiation between best and worst customers has resulted
in 20% growth in the company’s A and B level clients

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