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Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting

This document provides an introduction to travel demand forecasting. It discusses what travel demand forecasting is, the nature and analysis of transportation demand, and the major aspects considered in travel demand analysis. Specifically, it covers land use and trip purpose as two major aspects. It also describes the classic four-step travel demand forecasting model, which includes trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and route/traffic assignment. The goal of travel demand forecasting is to predict future travel behavior and demand for transportation based on factors like land use and transportation systems.

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Rencee Salazar
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2K views16 pages

Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting

This document provides an introduction to travel demand forecasting. It discusses what travel demand forecasting is, the nature and analysis of transportation demand, and the major aspects considered in travel demand analysis. Specifically, it covers land use and trip purpose as two major aspects. It also describes the classic four-step travel demand forecasting model, which includes trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and route/traffic assignment. The goal of travel demand forecasting is to predict future travel behavior and demand for transportation based on factors like land use and transportation systems.

Uploaded by

Rencee Salazar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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INTRODUCTION TO

TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING

• LOURENCE LIE SALAZAR


• KATHLEEN SHEILAH LEDESMA
WHAT IS TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING?
• Refers to the amount and type of travel people would choose under
specific conditions, taking account factors such as the quality of
transport options available and their prices.
• And also the process used to predict travel behavior and resulting
demand for a specific future time frame, based on assumptions
dealing with land-use, the number and character of trip-makers, and
the nature of the transportation system.

2
WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION
DEMAND?
 Transportation Demand  Transportation demand, simply
is a branch of Civil stated, is the demand for trips
Engineering that that exists in any area. All of this
carefully examines how demand, however, may or may
consumers make their not materialize into physical
transportation decisions. trips (vehicular or pedestrian)
and some of it generally remains
latent and is referred to as hidden
demand.

3
NATURE AND ANALYSIS OF
TRANSPORTATION DEMAND
 Transportation demand, unlike the demand for other commodities,
such as wheat, coffee, housing, clothing, etc. is a derived demand.
That is, a person demands to be transported not because they just want
to move but because they want to achieve some other purpose such as
reaching school, office, or movie theatre.
 Travel demand is primarily generated by the population’s need to
work, entertain, socialize, study, etc.

4
2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAVEL
DEMAND ANALYSIS

Land-use

Trip-purpose
5
2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAVEL
DEMAND ANALYSIS
Land-use
 It refers to the pattern of land
usage in an area.
 Affects the transportation
demand through generation and
distribution of trips.
 The effect on transportation
demand is not necessarily a
one-way effect but rather a part
of cycle.
6
2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAVEL
DEMAND ANALYSIS

Trip-purpose
 It refers to the purpose for which the trip is being
undertaken.
 Travel demand behaviour changes with the trip-
purpose.

7
2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAVEL
DEMAND ANALYSIS
Generally, a trip materializes after the trip-
maker makes certain decisions.
These decisions can be broadly classifies as
follows:
 The decision to travel.
 The decision on the choice of destination.
 The decision on the choice of mode.
 The decision on the choice of route.

8
2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAVEL
DEMAND ANALYSIS
Although even today transportation
demand is analyzed sequentially, the
assumption that the four major decisions of
a trip-maker follow a strict sequence is
possibly not the most appealing.
Unlike the first figure there are feedback
loops indicating that decisions taken earlier
can be changed based on a latter decision.

9
SEQUENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS
Even though the assumption
of the existence of a strict
sequence in the decision-
making process of a
potential trip-maker may be
debatable, generally
sequential demand analysis
is used to determine the
travel demand.

10
CLASSIC FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING MODEL
 Trip Generation

 Trip Distribution

 Modal Split

 Route/ Traffic Assignment

11
CLASSIC FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING MODEL

• Trip Generation - Aims at


predicting the total number of
trips generated and attracted to
each zone of the study area.

12
CLASSIC FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING MODEL

• Trip Distribution - The number of


trips that occur between each origin
zone and each destination zone.

13
CLASSIC FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING MODEL
• Modal Split - Also known as modal share
or mode choice. It shows the percentage
of travellers using a particular mode of
transport compared to the ratio of all trips
made.

14
CLASSIC FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING MODEL
• Route/ Traffic Assignment - Used
to estimate the traffic flows on a
network and possibly the turning
movements at intersections.

15
THANK YOU ❤

Principles Of Transportation Engineering CN: 4107/ PCE413

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