RANDOM VARIABLES

AND
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Prepared by:

HANS JOHN TABUTOL PACNIS

Secondary School Teacher II
TERMS TO REMEMBER!!!
EXPERIMENT Lesson.1
 any activity which can be done repeatedly under
similar conditions.
SAMPLE SPACE
 the set of all possible outcomes.
ELEMENTS/EVENTS
 a subset of a sample space.
OUTCOMES
 the elements in a sample space.
PROBABILITY
 the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the
number of possible outcomes.
RANDOM
LESSON 1

VARIABLE
 A numerical quantity that is assigned to the outcome of
Lesson.1
an experiment.
 A variable that assumes numerical values associated with
the events of an experiment.
 A quantitative variable whose value depends on
change.
 A variable whose possible values are determined by
chance.
 To determine the values of the random variable in an
experiment, follow these steps:
 a. List sample space of the experiment.
 b. Count the number of random variable in each outcome
and assign this number to this outcome.
EXAMPLE 1.
 Supposed two coins were tossed and we are interested to determine the
number of heads that will come out. Let us use H to represent the Lesson.1
number of heads that will come out. Determine the values of the random
variable H.
Step 1. List the sample space of the experiment.
S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
Step 2. Count the number of heads in each outcome and assign this
number to this outcome.
Outcome Number of Heads ( value of H )

HH 2
HT 1
TH 1
TT 0

The values of the random variable H (number of heads) are 0 , 1 , and 2.

EXAMPLE 2.
 A basket contains 10 ripe and 4 unripe bananas. If three bananas are
taken from the basket one after the other, determine the possible values
of the random variable R representing the number of ripe bananas. Lesson.1
Step 1. List the sample space of this experiment. Let R represent the ripe bananas
and U represent the unripe bananas.
S = { RRR, RRU, RUR, URR, UUR, URU, RUU, UUU }
Step 2. Count the number of ripe bananas ( R ) in each outcome and assign this
number to this outcome.

Outcome Number of Ripe Bananas ( Value of R )

RRR 3
RRU 2
RUR 2
URR 2
UUR 1
URU 1
RUU 1
UUU 0

The values of the random variable R ( number of ripe bananas ) in this experiment are
0 , 1 , 2 , and 3.
A RANDOM VARIABLE MAY BE CLASSIFIED
AS DISCRETE OR CONTINUOUS Lesson.1

 Discrete Random  Continuous Random

Variable Variable
 It is one that can assume  Can assume infinite
only a countable number number of values in one
of values. ore more intervals.
 It is a random variable  It is generated from an
whose possible values experiment in which
form a finite or countable things are counted but not
set of numbers. measured.
 It can be measured.
 EXAMPLE
S
Lesson.1
DISCRETE CONTINUOUS

 Number of pencils in a  Amount of antibiotics in

box. a vial.
 Number of soldiers in a  Lifetime of light bulbs in
troop. minutes.
 Number of rotten  Length of wire ropes.
tomatoes in the basket.  Voltage of radio batteries.
 Number of defective
flashlights.
LESSON 1 TEST
 A. Determine the values of the random variable in each of the Lesson.1
following situations.
 1. Two coins were tossed. Let T be the number of tails that
occurs. Determine the values of random variable T.
 B. Classify the following as DISCRETE or CONTINUOUS.
 1. the number of senators present in the meeting,
 2. the weight of newborn babies for the month of june.
 3. the number of ballpens in the box.
 4. the capacity of electrical resistors
 5. the amount of salt needed to bake a loaf of bread.
 6. the capacity of an auditorium.
 7. the number of households with television.
 8. the height of mango trees.
 9. the area of lots in a subdivision.
 10. the number of students who joined the field trip.
LESSON 2

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

 Probability Distribution of a discrete random variable Lesson.2
 It is a correspondence that assigns the probabilities to the values
of a random variable.
 It is also called the probability mass function.
 Probability Distribution is listing of the possible values and the
corresponding probabilities of a discrete random variable or a
formula for the probabilities.
 For any discrete random variable X, the following are true:
 0 < P(X) < 1, for each value of X.

 ΣP(X) = 1

 A probability distribution can be described by a formula.

 The probability histogram is a bar graph that displays the
possible values of a discrete random variable on the horizontal
axis and the probabilities of those values on the vertical axis.
EXAMPLE 1
 A basket contains 10 ripe bananas and 4 unripe bananas. Lesson.2
If three bananas are taken from the basket one after the
other, determine the possible values of the random
variable R representing the number of ripe bananas.

 Step 1. List the sample space of this experiment. Let R

represent the ripe bananas ant U for unripe bananas.

S = { RRR , RRU , RUR , URR , UUR , URU , RUU , UUU }

 Step 2. Count the number of ripe bananas ( R ) in each
outcome and assign this number to this outcome.
Lesson.2

Number of Ripe bananas

Outcome
( Value of R)
RRR 3
RRU 2
RUR 2
URR 2
UUR 1
URU 1
RUU 1
UUU 0
 Step 3. Construct the frequency distribution of the
values of the random variable.
Lesson.2

Number of ripe bananas Number of Occurrence

( values of R ) ( Frequency)
3 1
2 3
1 3
0 1
Total 8
 Step 4. Construct the probability distribution of the
random variable R by getting the probability of
occurrence of each value of the random variable. Lesson.2

Number of Ripe Number of Occurrence

Probability P(R)
Bananas ( Values of R ) ( Frequency)
3 1 1/8
2 3 3/8
1 3 3/8
0 1 1/8
Total 8 1

The probability distribution of the random variable R can be

written
R as follows:3 2 1 0
P(R) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
EXAMPLE 2
 Determine whether or not the formula below describe a probability
distribution. Lesson.2
 P(X) = (X + 1) / 7 where X = 0,1,3. If it is, find the ff:
 1. P( X = 3 )

 2. P( X > 1 )

 3. P( X < 1 )

Solution
To determine if the formula describes a probability, substitute the
values of the random variables in the formula to get the
corresponding probability values.

X P(X)

0 1/7

1 2/7

3 4/7
EXAMPLE 2
Lesson.2
Conclusion
The formula gives a probability distribution because
0 < P(X) < 1 where X = 0,1,3. Likewise, The sum of all the
probability values is equal to one.

1. P(X = 3) = 4/7
2. P(X>1) = P(1) + P(3)
= 2/7 + 4/7
= 6/7
3. P(X<1) = P(0) + P(1)
= 1/7 + 2/7
= 3/7
EXAMPLE 3
 Construct the probability histogram of the probability distribution of
the number of ripe bananas, from example 1. Lesson.2
Probability Distribution of the number of Ripe Bananas.

R 3 2 1 0

P(R) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Probability Histogram

0 1 2 3
LESSON 2 TEST
1. Suppose two coins were tossed and we are interested to Lesson.2
determine the number of heads that will come out with
this experiment. Use H to represent the number of
heads that will come out. Determine the values of the
random variable.
2. A meeting of consuls was attended by 4 Americans
and 2 Germans.
a. If three consuls were selected at random, construct the
probability distribution of the random variable G
representing the number of Germans.
b. Construct the probability histogram.
Lesson 3
MEAN AND VARIANCE OF A DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Lesson.3
 Mean
 Expected value of X. E(X)
 It is the weighted average of all the values that the random variable X would
assume in the long run.
 Denoted by µ(mew).
 Variance
 The measure of how far a data set is spread out.
 The expected value of the square of the difference between the assumed value
of the random variable and the mean.
 Denoted by σ^2 or Var(X)
 Standard Deviation
 It indicates how far, on the average, an observed value of a random variable X
is from its mean.
 The smaller the standard deviation, the more likely that an observed value of
the random variable will be close to its mean.
 Denoted by σ(lowercase sigma)
FORMULAS
 Mean
 µ = E(X) = Σ [ X*P(X) ]
 Where: Lesson.3
 µ = Mean
 X = value of the random variable
 P(X) = Probability value of the random variable

 Variance
 Var(X)/σ^2 = E(X) = Σ [ X^2*P(X) ] - µ^2
 Where:
 µ = Mean
 X = value of the random variable
 P(X) = Probability value of the random variable
 σ^2 = Variance

 Standard Deviation
 σ = √(Σ [ X^2*P(X) ] - µ^2)
 Where:
 µ = Mean
 X = value of the random variable
 P(X) = Probability value of the random variable
 σ = Standard Deviation
EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the discrete random
variable X with the following probability distribution.
Lesson.3
X P(X)
2 ¼
1 ½
0 ¼

STEP 1
Find the mean.
X P(X) X*P(X)
2 ¼ ½
1 ½ ½
0 1/4 0

µ = E(X) = Σ [ X*P(X) ]
=½+½+0
=1 Mean
EXAMPLE
STEP 2
Find the variance.
Lesson.3
X P(X) X*P(X) X^2 * P(X)
2 ¼ ½ 1
1 ½ ½ ½
0 1/4 0 0

E(X) = Σ [ X^2*P(X) ] - µ^2

= ( 1 + ½ + 0 ) – 1^2
= 1.5 - 1
= ½ or 0.5 variance

STEP 3
Find the standard deviation

σ = √(Σ [ X^2*P(X) ] - µ^2)

= √0.5
= 0.707 standard deviation

Thus, the variance is 0.5 and the standard deviation is 0.707.

LESSON 3 TEST
1. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the following
probability distributions. Complete the following tables.
Lesson.3
a.
H P(H) H*P(H) H^2 H^2*P(H)
0 0.06
1 0.70
2 0.20
3 0.03
4 0.01
b.
R P(R) R*P(R) R^2 R^2 * P(R)
2 3/10
3 2/5
4 1/5
5 1/10
 Lesson 4
APPLIED PROBLEMS INVOLVING MEAN AND
VARIANCE OF A DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION Lesson.4

Notes:
1. The mean or expected value of a probability distribution tells the
value of the random variable that we expect to get if the experiment is
done repeatedly.

2. If the experiment or process is repeated long enough, there is a

likelihood or chance that the average of the outcomes will begin to
approach the expected value or the mean value.

3. The standard deviation of a probability distribution indicates how far,

on the average, is an observed value of a random variable X from its
mean.

4. The smaller standard deviation, the more likely that an observed

value of the random variable will be close to its mean.
EXAMPLE
In a convenient store, the number of tellers (X) busy with costumers at 12:00
noon varies from day to day. Past records indicate that the probability
distribution of X is as follows: Lesson.4
Number of tellers X Probability P(X)
0 0.029
1 0.049
2 0.078
3 0.155
4 0.212
5 0.262
6 0.215

Questions
1. What is the probability that exactly four tellers are busy at 12:00 noon?
2. What is the probability that at least two, but fewer than five tellers are
busy at 12:00 noon?
3. What is the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution?
EXAMPLE
In a convenient store, the number of tellers (X) busy with costumers
at 12:00 noon varies from day to day. Past records indicate that the Lesson.4
probability distribution of X is as follows:

Solutions

1. What is the probability that exactly four tellers are busy at

12:00 noon?

P( X = 4 ) = 0.212

2. What is the probability that at least two, but fewer than five tellers are
busy at 12:00 noon?

P( 2 < X < 5 ) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

= 0.78 + 0.155 + 0.212
= 0.455
3. What is the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution?

Number of tellers X Probability P(X) X*P(X)

0 0.029 0.000 Lesson.4
1 0.049 0.049
2 0.078 0.156
3 0.155 0.465
4 0.212 0.848
5 0.262 1.310
6 0.215 1.290
µ = E(X) = Σ [ X*P(X) ]
= 0.000 + 0.049 + 0.156 + 0.465 + 0.848 + 1.310 + 1.290
= 4.118
The mean of the probability distribution is 4.118. This implies that in the long run,
we expect that the average number of tellers who are busy at 12:00 noon will be
4.118 or 4.

σ = √(Σ [ X^2*P(X) ] - µ^2)

= √ [0.000 + 0.049 + 0.156 + 0.465 + 0.848 + 1.310 + 1.290] – (4.118)^2
= √19.438 – 16.958
= √2.48 = 1.57
LESSON 4 TEST
The probabilities that a market inspector will discover violations of the public
health code in a public market are given in the following table.
Lesson.4
Number of Violations (X) Probability P(X)

0 0.41
1 0.22
2 0.17
3 0.13
4 0.05
5 0.02

Questions
1. What is the probability that a market inspector will discover, at least,
two violations of the public health code?
2. What is the probability that a market inspector will discover, at most,
three violations of the public health code?
3. What is the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution?
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Discrete Uniform Distribution
 A random variable has a discrete uniform distribution when all the Additional
values of the random variable are equally likely, that is they have
equal probabilities.
Example
When a fair die is thrown, the possible outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5 and
6. Each time the die is thrown, it can roll on any of these numbers.
Since there are six numbers, the probability of a given scores is 1/6 .

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Formulas:
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Mean = (N + 1)/2
Variance = (N^2 – 1)/12
Standard deviation = √(N^2 – 1 )/12
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Bernoulli Distribution
 Named after the Swiss Mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, is a Additional
probability distribution of a random variable x with only two
possible outcomes, 1 and 0, that is success and failure. If the
probability of the success is p then the probability of failure is q = 1
– p.
 The Bernoulli Distribution with parameter p where 0 < p < 1 , has
the following probability mass function.
written as: P(X=x) = p^x ( 1 – p )^1 – x , for x = 0,1
where: p = probability of success
1 – p = probability of failure
Formulas:
Mean = p
Variance = pq = p ( 1 – p )
Standard deviation = √pq = √p( 1 – p )
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Bernoulli Distribution
Example Additional

Find the probability of getting a head in a single toss of a coin.

Solution
Let x = number of heads
Getting a head is a success is a success and getting a tail is a failure.
Thus, the probabilities are the following:
The probability of success (1) = ½
The probability of failure (0) = ½
The probability distribution of x is shown in the table below.
X 1 Mean0 =p=½
P(X) 1/6 Variance
5/6 = p(1-p) = ½(1 – ½)
= ½(1/2) = 1/4
Standard deviation = √(1/4)
= 1/2
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Probability Distribution
 A binomial experiment possesses the following properties: Additional
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. Each trial results in two possible outcomes that may be classified as a success
or failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains the same from trial to trial.
4. Each trial is independent of the previous trial.
 A random variable X follows a binomial distribution, denoted by X ~ Bi( n , p ) ,
if the pmf(probability mass function) of X is given by:

Formulas
P(x) = ( n! / x!(n-x)! )p^x q^n – x
where:
n = number of binomial trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in one of the n trials
q = 1 – p = probability of failure in one of the n trials
Mean = np
Variance = npq
Standard Deviation = √npq
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example
Additional
 Experience has shown that 1/100 of the USB flash drives produced by a
certain factory are defective. If a test is randomly done on 12 USB flash
drives, compute:
a. P( at most 2 are defective )
The probability of having at most 2 defective is equal to having the sum of the
probabilities of getting no defective up to getting 2 defectives.
Solution:
P(0) = [ 12! / 1!(12-1)! ] (1/100)^0 (99/100)^12
= 0.886384872 or 0.8864
P(1) = [ 12! / 1!(12-1)! ] (1/100)^1 (99/100)^11
= 0.107440591 or 0.1074
P(2) = [ 12! / 1!(12-1)! ] (1/100)^2 (99/100)^10
= 0.005968922 or 0.0060
P( at most 2 are defective ) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2)
= 0.8864 + 0.1074 + 0.0060
= 0.9998
 OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Discrete Uniform, Bernoulli, Binomial Distribution TEST
Additional
1. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the following .

X 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5

2. Find the probability of getting a 4 in a single toss of a die.

3. The probability of a rifleman hitting the target is 2/5 . Suppose he

fires 8 times, what is the probability that he hits the target three
times? What is the probability that he hits the target at least once?
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
 A Hypergeometric distrbution possesses the following properties: Additional
1. A sample size n is randomly selected without replacement from a
population of N items.
2. The k items in the population may be classified as successes, and the
N – k items may be classified as failures.
 A random variable x follows a hypergeometric distribution, denoted by
X ~ Hyp( n, N , k ) , if the pmf( probability mass function) is given by:
Formulas:
P(x) = [ ( kCx N – k C n – x ) / NCn ] for x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n
where:
N = population size
n = sample size
k = number of successes in a population
x = number of successes in a sample
Mean = n ( k/N )
Variance = n ( k/N) [( N – k)/N] [(N – n) / ( N – 1 )]
Variance = √Variance
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
Additional
Example
There are 6 white balls and 34 blue balls in the basket. If
you draw 8 balls from the basket without replacement,
what is the probability that exactly 3 of the 8 balls are
white?
Solution
Treat drawing a white ball a success and a blue ball as a
failure.
N = 6 + 34 = 40, k = 6, n = 8, x = 3, X ~ Hyp( 8,40,6 )
P(3) = [6!/3!(6 – 3)!] * [34!/5!(34 – 5 )!] / [40!/8!(40 – 8)!]
= 0.072363862 or 0.0724
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution TEST
Additional
1. Suppose there are 15 universities in luzon and 10 of
them are located in metro manila. If three universities
are selected at random from the entire list, What is the
probability that one ore more of the selected universities
is located in metro manila?

2. Let x be the hypergeometric random variable with N =

12, n = 3, and k = 5.
a. Calculate P(2).
b. Calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation.
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Probability Distribution
 Developed by French Mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson. Additional
 The Poisson distribution is employed when occurrences ( usually rare events
such as accidents ) are randomly distributed in space and time.
 A random variable X follows a Poisson distribution, denoted by X
~ Po(µ), if it has pmf( probability mass function) given below:
Formulas
P(x) = (µ^x e^ - µ)/x! , x = 0,1,2, ...
where:
µ = the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain
period of time or space.
e = 2.71828...
µ = E(X) = np,
where n = number of samples and p = probability of success.
Mean = np
Variance = µ
Standard deviation = õ
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Probability Distribution
Example Additional
The average number of traffic accidents on a certain intersection in Manila is two per
month.
a. Find the probability that zero accidents happen on that certain intersection in a one
month period.
b. Find the probability that at most four accidents occur on that intersection in a 2 –
month period.
Solution:
a. P(0) = (2^0 e^ - 2) / 0! = 0.135335
b. µ = (2)(2 months) = 4 number of accidents during a 2 – month period . So, the probability of
having at most four accidents is equivalent to the probability of having at least 0 accidents up
to 4.
P(0) = ( 4^0 e^-4 ) / 0! = 0.018316
P(1) = ( 4^1 e ^-4 ) / 1! = 0.073263
P(2) = ( 4^2 e ^-4 ) / 2! = 0.146525
P(3) = ( 4^3 e^-4 ) / 3! = 0.195367
P(4) = ( 4^4 e^-4 ) / 4! = 0.195367
Therefore, P(X<4) = 0.018316 + 0.073263 + 0.146525 + 0.195367 + 0.195367 +
0.195367
= 0.628838
OTHER DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Probability Distribution TEST Additional

1. The number of days classes is suspended due to flood during

rainy season in manila is 5. What is the probability that the
classes will be suspended in Manila for 6 days during rainy
season?

2. Customers in a fast food restaurant arrive randomly on

weekday at an average of three customers per hour. What is
the probability of having more than 8 customers per day on a
weekday?
LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT
Nominal level
 Data in this level are classified into categories. Names are Extra

used as labels. Number and letters are used to represent

variables.
 Example
Marital status: Single, Married, Divorce
Gender: Male, Female
1. M maybe used instead of male.
2. 1 may be used instead of male.
Ordinal level
 Data in this level are ranked but the degree of difference
between them are not determined. Items are ordered when
sorted out.
 Example
 Size – small, medium, large, extra large
 Rank – 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.
LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT
Interval level
 The degree of difference between the data can be specified Extra

but not the ratio between them. In this level, zero,(0) does not
mean total absence of what is being measured.
 Example
 Temperature in Celsius Scale
Ratio level
 In this level, data such as scores can be expressed as ratio. In
ratio level, zero(0) has an actual or true value. Most
measurement in engineering and physical sciences are in
ratio level.
 Example
 Mass is measured in ratio scales.
 Length is also measured on ratio scale.
LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT
Topic Test
Tell what kind of measurement scale is appropriate for the Extra

following information.
1. Eye color
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Religious Affiliation
5. Weights of basketball players
6. Weight of students
7. Scores in a probability and statistics test
8. Speed of sound
9. Top ten in the nursing board examination
10. Grades
11. Sizes of shoes
12. Sizes of T- shirts
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR
COOPERATION!!
GOODLUCK!!!! AND GODBLESS!!!!!