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Stats Chapter 6 Probability

Probability is a method for quantifying the likelihood of obtaining a specific sample from a population. It is defined as a ratio comparing the frequency of a specific outcome to the total number of possible outcomes. The normal distribution and binomial distribution are important probability distributions. Probability establishes the link between samples and populations that is fundamental to inferential statistics, which uses sample information to make inferences about unknown populations.

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111 views22 pages

Stats Chapter 6 Probability

Probability is a method for quantifying the likelihood of obtaining a specific sample from a population. It is defined as a ratio comparing the frequency of a specific outcome to the total number of possible outcomes. The normal distribution and binomial distribution are important probability distributions. Probability establishes the link between samples and populations that is fundamental to inferential statistics, which uses sample information to make inferences about unknown populations.

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Madison Hartfield
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter 6: Probability

Probability

• Probability is a method for measuring and


quantifying the likelihood of obtaining a specific
sample from a specific population.
• We define probability as a fraction or a
proportion.
• The probability of any specific outcome is
determined by a ratio comparing the frequency
of occurrence for that outcome relative to the
total number of possible outcomes.
Probability (cont'd.)

• Whenever the scores in a population are variable, it


is impossible to predict with perfect accuracy exactly
which score(s) will be obtained when you take a
sample from the population.
– In this situation, researchers rely on probability to
determine the relative likelihood for specific samples.
– Thus, although you may not be able to predict exactly
which value(s) will be obtained for a sample, it is
possible to determine which outcomes have high
probability and which have low probability.
Probability and Sampling
• To assure that the definition of probability is
accurate, the use of random sampling is
necessary.
– Random sampling requires that each member of
a population has an equal chance of being
selected.
– Independent random sampling includes the
conditions of random sampling and further
requires that the probability of being selected
remains constant for each selection
Probability (cont'd.)

• When a population of scores is represented by a


frequency distribution, probabilities can be
defined by proportions of the distribution.
• Probability values are expressed by a fraction or
proportion.
• In graphs, probability can be defined as a
proportion of area under the curve.
Probability and the Normal Distribution
Probability and the Normal Distribution

• If a vertical line is drawn through a normal


distribution, several things occur.
– The line divides the distribution into two sections.
The larger section is called the body and the
smaller section is called the tail.
– The exact location of the line can be specified by
a z-score.
Probability and the Normal
Distribution (cont'd.)
• The unit normal table lists several different
proportions corresponding to each z-score
location.
– Column A of the table lists z-score values.
– For each z-score location, columns B and C list the
proportions in the body and tail, respectively.
– Finally, column D lists the proportion between the
mean and the z-score location.
• Because probability is equivalent to proportion,
the table values can also be used to determine
probabilities.
Probability and the Normal Distribution
(cont'd.)
• To find the probability corresponding to a
particular score (X value), you first transform the
score into a z-score, then look up the z-score in
the table and read across the row to find the
appropriate proportion/probability.
• To find the score (X value) corresponding to a
particular proportion, you first look up the
proportion in the table, read across the row to
find the corresponding z-score, and then
transform the z-score into an X value.
Probability and the Normal Distribution
(cont'd.)
• The normal distribution is symmetrical; therefore,
the proportions will be the same for the positive
and negative values of a specific z-score.
• Proportions are always positive, even if the
corresponding z-score is negative.
• A negative z-score means that the tail of the
distribution is on the left side and the body is on
the right, and vice versa for a positive z-score.
Probability and the Normal Distribution
(cont'd.)
Percentiles and Percentile Ranks

• The percentile rank for a specific X value is the


percentage of individuals with scores at or below
that value.
• When a score is referred to by its rank, the score
is called a percentile. The percentile rank for a
score in a normal distribution is simply the
proportion to the left of the score.
Probability and the Binomial
Distribution
• Binomial distributions are formed by a series of
observations (for example, 100 coin tosses) for
which there are exactly two possible outcomes
(heads and tails)
• The two outcomes are identified as A and B, with
probabilities of p(A) = p and p(B) = q.
• p + q = 1.00
• The distribution shows the probability for each
value of X, where X is the number of occurrences
of A in a series of n observations.
Probability and the Binomial
Distribution (cont'd.)
• When pn and qn are both greater than 10, the
binomial distribution is closely approximated by
a normal distribution with a mean of μ = pn and
a standard deviation of σ = npq.
• In this situation, a z-score can be computed for
each value of X and the unit normal table can be
used to determine probabilities for specific
outcomes.
Probability and Inferential Statistics

• Probability is important because it establishes a


link between samples and populations.
• For any known population, it is possible to
determine the probability of obtaining any
specific sample.
• In later chapters, we will use this link as the
foundation for inferential statistics.
Probability and Inferential Statistics
(cont'd.)
• The general goal of inferential statistics is to use
the information from a sample to reach a general
conclusion (inference) about an unknown
population.
• Typically a researcher begins with a sample.
Probability and Inferential Statistics
(cont'd.)
• If the sample has a high probability of being
obtained from a specific population, then the
researcher can conclude that the sample is likely
to have come from that population.
• If the sample has a very low probability of being
obtained from a specific population, then it is
reasonable for the researcher to conclude that
the specific population is probably not the
source for the sample.

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