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    The Middle East C Risis

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    Harshit Upadhyay
    The document discusses the Middle East crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010. It provides background on the authoritarian regimes across the Arab world and factors that led to protests, including suppressed freedoms, unemployment, and corruption. The uprisings began in Tunisia in response to poor economic conditions and overthrow of President Ben Ali. This inspired protests in Egypt that ousted President Mubarak after 18 days. Libya's uprising turned violent as Gaddafi used force against protesters, leading to armed conflict and foreign military intervention against his regime. The document speculates that Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen may be next to see major unrest as their governments also face threats to their hold on power.

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    The Middle East C Risis

    Uploaded by

    Harshit Upadhyay
    46 views17 pages
    The document discusses the Middle East crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010. It provides background on the authoritarian regimes across the Arab world and factors that led to protests, including suppressed freedoms, unemployment, and corruption. The uprisings began in Tunisia in response to poor economic conditions and overthrow of President Ben Ali. This inspired protests in Egypt that ousted President Mubarak after 18 days. Libya's uprising turned violent as Gaddafi used force against protesters, leading to armed conflict and foreign military intervention against his regime. The document speculates that Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen may be next to see major unrest as their governments also face threats to their hold on power.

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    The document discusses the Middle East crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010. It provides background on the authoritarian regimes across the Arab world and factors that led to protests, including suppressed freedoms, unemployment, and corruption. The uprisings began in Tunisia in response to poor economic conditions and overthrow of President Ben Ali. This inspired protests in Egypt that ousted President Mubarak after 18 days. Libya's uprising turned violent as Gaddafi used force against protesters, leading to armed conflict and foreign military intervention against his regime. The document speculates that Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen may be next to see major unrest as their governments also face threats to their hold on power.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    46 views17 pages

    The Middle East C Risis

    Uploaded by

    Harshit Upadhyay
    The document discusses the Middle East crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010. It provides background on the authoritarian regimes across the Arab world and factors that led to protests, including suppressed freedoms, unemployment, and corruption. The uprisings began in Tunisia in response to poor economic conditions and overthrow of President Ben Ali. This inspired protests in Egypt that ousted President Mubarak after 18 days. Libya's uprising turned violent as Gaddafi used force against protesters, leading to armed conflict and foreign military intervention against his regime. The document speculates that Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen may be next to see major unrest as their governments also face threats to their hold on power.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 17

    The Mid

    d le East C
    ris i s
    Prelude
     The Arab World embraces vast wealth ( through their power of being oil
    producing) and 350 million people.

     Among the Arab league’s 22 countries, only 3 can claim to be democracies; all
    of them flawed.
    1. Iraq: Still inflicted by suicide bombers and sectarianism, democracy
    enforced upon by USA
    2. Palestinian territories, occupied by Israel
    3. Lebanon, where free elections are marred by sectarian quotas

     All the rest 18 countries range from having the nastiest of tyrannies( Libya) to
    benevolent autocracies as Qatar’s ; Most of them having authoritarian regimes
    being the most backward in terms of democracy.

     Most of these regimes have been given legitimacy through support by the
    outside world, e.g. the West, the former Soviet Union etc. with vested interest
    of controlling the oil resources.
    Reasons Behind the Uprising
     Middle East is riddled with authoritarian regimes of various kinds (monarchies,
    dictatorships, religious republics, etc). Most of these regimes have been given legitimacy
    through support by the outside world, e.g. the West, the former Soviet Union etc.

     Global financial crisis, rising food prices, increasing unemployment, leaks of official
    documents (such as Wiki Leaks of US embassy cables, the leak of how the Palestinian
    Authority had relented to Israel), ethnic/cultural divisions, etc

     Decades of Oppression and suppressed thoughts and opinions

     Some of the protests focussed on jobs, unemployment, corruption, etc (e.g. Egypt), while
    others focused on historical divisions (such as how Bahrain’s Shia majority has been ruled
    by a Sunni minority and royal family for decades.)

     Role of Social Media :


    Social Media ( Facebook , Twitter ) played a crucial role in gathering huge masses across
    these nations; Facebook Groups, Twitter status, videos etc instigated people to unite and
    fight for a cause; Freedom
    Morocco Syria
    Tunisia
    Jordan
    Algeria
    Libya Egypt Saudi
    Arabia
    Oman

    Yemen
    Sudan
    How the uprising began:
    Jasmine ( Tunisia) Revolution
     The Tunisian Revolution was an intensive campaign of civil resistance,
    including a series of street demonstrations taking place in Tunisia.

     The events began in December 2010 and led to the ousting of longtime
    President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011.

     The demonstrations were precipitated by high unemployment, food inflation,


    corruption, lack of freedom of speech and other political freedom and poor
    living conditions.

     These Riots were considered to be noteworthy as Tunisia is considered to be


    stable and wealthy as compared to countries in the same region.

     The Revolution was sparked by self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi on 17


    December and led to the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali 28 days
    later on 14 January 2011, when he officially resigned after fleeing to Saudi
    Arabia, ending 23 years in power .
    How the uprising began:
    Jasmine ( Tunisia) Revolution
     For decades any kind uprising was oppressed by the ruling regime and
    any one who stood up against were put behind the bar.

     Ben Ali to curb the revolution promised to create 300,000 jobs for
    unemployed graduates ( with no indication of how); promises of
    removing corrupt officials were made, releasing those in jails were
    made but nothing could change the mind of people.

     Despite bloodshed and opposition from military people came out in


    large numbers ousting Ben Ali from his years of corrupt regime.

     Currently there still lies a political unrest with RCD ( Constitutional


    Democratic Rally ) taking charge of the country.

     Tunisia would see its elections to Constitutional Assembly on 24th July


    2011, hopefully followed by general elections soon.
    The Egyptian Revolution
     Egypt is bigger and poorest than most other Arab states. Though Egypt
    has grown economically in recent years the condition of masses hasn’t
    improved significantly.

     Around 40 % Egyptians are considered to be living on less than $ 2 a


    day.

     Legal and political issues including police brutality, state of emergency


    laws, lack of free elections and freedom of speech, uncontrollable
    corruption, as well as economic issues including high unemployment,
    food price inflation, and low minimum wages etc were the main reasons
    behind this uprising in Egypt.

     The Tunisian Revolution inspired the people of Egypt to come forward


    fight for their freedom with the revolts being sparked by young Khaled
    Said’s spawning Facebook campaign.
    The Egyptian Revolution
     The Revolutions on street began on 25th January 2011.

     Cairo’s Tahrir Square ( feared to become the next Tiananmen Square)


    became the epicenter for the revolution with millions of people
    belonging to different strata's of Egypt’s society shouting for president
    Hosini Mubarak to leave.

     Though initially bloodshed took place but later on the Egyptian Military
    defied the Government’s order and restrained from taking action against
    masses.

     On February 11th, 2011; Mubarak stepped down as the President.

     Currently the former Cabinet Ministry has become the caretaker with
    reforms being framed to bring in Democracy.
    Libya Revolution
    Reasons behind the uprising in Libya:
    Though Libya has the highest oil reserves in Africa, it is surprisingly poor.

    State salaries have never exceeded $500 a month.

    The economy has sucked in some 1.5 m foreign laborers, while on the other hand young
    Libyans struggle to find jobs.

    Libya's corruption perception index in 2010 was 2.2, which was far worse than that of Egypt
    and Tunisia, two neighbouring countries who faced uprising before Libya.

    According to the 2009 Freedom of the Press Index, Libya is the most-censored country in the
    Middle East and North Africa.

    Though having cash reserves worth 140 billion US $ nothing has been spent for the uplift of the
    people.
    Libya’s traumatic past under Muammer Gaddafi’s terror regime of 42 years:
    Dozens of Libyans ( anyone who spoke against him- “Stray Dogs” ) were murdered by his Agents.
    Much of the country’s oil income in the 1970’s was wasted on the arms purchases and non beneficial interventions
    into Chad which resulted in 4000 Libyans being killed for no gain.
    In 1990’s hundreds of Libyan’s were killed against a campaign against Islamic Radicals.
    Libya Revolution
     The uprising began as a series of protests and confrontations on 15 February 2011
    Within a week , protests spread across entire Libya calling for new leadership and
    democracy.
     Gaddafi responded with military force and other such measures as censorship and
    blocking of communications.
     Foreign mercenaries were recruited to supplement for the defaulting troops

     The uprising has resulted into armed conflict with rebels establishing the Transition
    National Council based in Benghazi.
     Currently the war between Gaddafi’s forces and the Rebels continue with Gadaffi not
    willing to step down.
     Gaddafi troops have been executing all rebels, with a rampant war like activities spread
    across entire coastal Libya .
     In the capital city of Tripoli many have been killed by the military troops in protests .

     Gadaffi categorically claims that the lives of people been taken are not citizens but are
    rebels, blatantly defying that he has committed a crime by killing thousands of people.
    Libya Revolution

     On 19th March, International Military Intervention has been brought in to


    implement the United Nations Security Council Resolution
     Libya has been declared as a No- Fly Zone by the UN.
     The Nato countries carried out attacks with USA firing over 110 Tomahawk
    missiles and France and Britain carrying out Air Strikes.
     This operation named as Operation Odyssey Dawn, aims at protecting the
    people of Libya and destroying the military camps led by Gadaffi forces.
     China, Russia and India have been critical about these attacks saying that
    innocent lives of people are being lost claiming them to become
    counterproductive of the humanitarian objective.
     Only time will tell what beholds the future of Libya .
    With Tunisia finished,

    Egypt primed for elections,

    and Libya at war,

    WHO'S NEXT ???


    Syria: President regime now under threat
    Though the economic situation is not as dire in Syria as in other countries, protesters have
    still stormed government buildings, burning some, and now threaten the stability of
    President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The president believes his partnership with Iran and
    support for the Palestinian cause will keep him safe, but recent evidence would suggest that's
    no longer the case.

    Bahrain: Saudi Arabia helps to crush uprising


    Bahrain's majority Shia protest movement against the Sunni Minority rulers has been
    violently crushed by a combination of domestic authorities and aid from Saudi Arabia. The
    assault has been brutal, but effective.
    If Bahrain's protest movement does not receive external support from either the U.S. or Iran,
    it will likely fail. The U.S . Navy has a key base in the country, from which it operates. And
    Iran is naturally allied with its fellow Shias. The likely result, however, is a continuation of
    Saudi Arabia-Bahrain's brutal suppression tactics until calm is achieved.

    Yemen: Government brutally supressing protesters


    Yemen has presidential democracy, but elections are not entirely free. Yemenese want Ali
    Abdullah Saleh of 32 yrs to step down.
    Demonstrations have been highly violent and brutally attacked by government forces. 100’s
    have been killed in Government crackdown
    The future depends upon Saudi Arabia , if it continues to support the crackdown by
    government, bloody days would continue in Yemen.
    Jordan: King Abdullah tries to get ahead of the crisis
    Jordan is continuing to experience protests against the government, even though
    the country's leadership has been reshuffled.
    The government is working to line up reforms to the country's constitution, and
    much like in Morocco, protesters are piling on the pressure for these reforms to be
    sped up.

    Saudi Arabia: The lynchpin holding the Gulf together


    Saudi Arabia is the regional key to preventing the Gulf from turning into North
    Africa. The government's willingness to use force against its own people, and
    against the populations of other GCC countries, has been evidenced. 
    For Saudi, this is as much about maintaining regional hegemony as it is about
    quieting a domestic disturbance. Their main rival is Iran, and Saudi Arabia's
    leadership will do everything it can to prevent Iran from influencing minority Shia
    populations throughout the Gulf.

    Major Protests have been seen in Algeria.


    Minor Protests have been seen in Oman, Morocco ( reforms have already been
    brought in ), UAE and Qatar.

    A wave of unrest prevails over majority of the Arab world.


    Effect on China
    47% of china’s oil comes from the Middle East.
    With the Chinese economy expected to grow at 8% in 2011, disruptions in its oil
    supplies or major price surges would derail this growth forecast.
    China is also a major supplier of consumer goods to these countries; market bound to
    get affected.
    The debate all across the world is going on whether the middle east crisis would cause
    socio-political unrest in China or not.
    Post the crisis there were a few demonstrators out on the streets in Beijing ; who were
    immediately put behind the bars. Any kind of media was banned from displaying any
    footages of these minor protests.
    China's media censors have carefully shaped local coverage of the protests in the
    Middle East to further discourage Chinese citizens from drawing inspiration from them.
    “Chinese people support their nation's political stability, economic development, and
    favourable government policies. Those looking to create or discover news of Middle
    East-style protests in China will come up empty handed” -Quoted the Chinese
    government after these protests.
    Effect on India
    India imports 70% of its Oil demands from the middle east countries. Unrest
    would directly affect Supply.
    Around one third of the population of the Middle East Countries are Indians
    working for a living in these countries.
    Indian companies such as Indian Oil, BHEL, Punj Lloyd, I-Flex solutions etc
    especially in the hydrocarbon, power, construction and IT sector, have several
    ongoing projects in these Libya and Egypt.

    These projects have been stalled knocking their shares to a new low.

    Unrest is leading to higher crude prices( Already crossed 100 $ a barrel)


    further fanning stubbornly high inflation.

    Budget 2011- Deficits would be brought down to 4.6 %. With impending rise
    in Crude oil prices this seems a distant dream.

    The operations of Suez Canal has been a concern for both India and China.
    Janki Desai
    Prerna Gupta
    Nikhil Kalele
    Vishal Singh
    Tanvi Srivastava
    Priyanka Tipnis
    Vaisali Tiwari
    Harshit Upadhyay

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