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L2 Probability

Here are the probabilities for the cylinder selection problem: a. The probability that both defective cylinders are selected is 1/7 * 1/6 = 1/42 b. The probability that no defective cylinder is selected is 5/7 * 4/6 = 20/42 c. The probability that at least one defective cylinder is selected is 1 - P(no defective cylinder) = 1 - 20/42 = 22/42

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51 views15 pages

L2 Probability

Here are the probabilities for the cylinder selection problem: a. The probability that both defective cylinders are selected is 1/7 * 1/6 = 1/42 b. The probability that no defective cylinder is selected is 5/7 * 4/6 = 20/42 c. The probability that at least one defective cylinder is selected is 1 - P(no defective cylinder) = 1 - 20/42 = 22/42

Uploaded by

Kelyn Kok
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1

LECTURE 2
PROBABILITY
LECTURE GOALS
After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

• Apply common rules of probability

• Apply the addition rule to solve problem

• Apply conditional probability formula to solve problems.

2
AN EXPERIMENT AND ITS SAMPLE
SPACE
An
An experiment
experiment is
is any
any process
process that
that generates
generates well-
well-
defined
defined outcomes.
outcomes.

The
The sample
sample space
space for
for an
an experiment
experiment is
is the
the set
set of
of
all
all experimental
experimental outcomes.
outcomes.

An
An experimental
experimental outcome
outcome is
is also
also called
called aa sample
sample
point.
point.
An Experiment and Its Sample Space

Experiment Experiment Outcomes


Toss a coin Head, tail
Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
BASIC RULES OF PROBABILITY
• If A is an event, the probability that it occurs is
denoted by P(A).
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
• The probability (or chance) that an event A occurs
is the proportion of possible outcomes in the
sample that yield the event A:

Number of outcomes that yield event A


P  A 
Total number of possible outcomes
Mutually Exclusive Events

Two
Two events
events are
are said
said to
to be
be mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive ifif the
the
events
events have
have no
no sample
sample points
points in
in common.
common.

Two
Two events
events are
are mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive if,
if, when
when one
one event
event
occurs,
occurs, the
the other
other cannot
cannot occur.
occur.

Sample
Event A Event B Space S
Conditional Probability

The probability of an event given that another event


has occurred is called a conditional probability.

The conditional probability of A given B is denoted


by P(A|B).

A conditional probability is computed as follows :

P( A  B)
P( A|B) 
P( B )
Independent Events

If
If the
the probability
probability of
of event
event A
A is
is not
not changed
changed by
by the
the
existence
existence ofof event
event B,
B, we
we would
would say
say that
that events
events AA
and
and BB are
are independent.
independent.

Two
Two events
events A
A and
and BB are
are independent
independent if:
if:

P(A|B)
P(A|B) == P(A)
P(A) or P(B|A)
P(B|A) == P(B)
P(B)
Example 1
A survey of a sample of business students resulted in the following information
regarding the genders of the individuals and their selected major.
 
Selected Major
Gender Management Marketing Others
Male 40 10 50
 
Female 30 20 50
 
Total 70 30 100

a. What is the probability of selecting an individual who is majoring in Marketing?

b. What is the probability of selecting an individual who is majoring in Management, given


that the person is female?

c. Given that a person is male, what is the probability that he is majoring in Management?

d. What is the probability of selecting a male individual?


Assume you have applied for two scholarships, a Merit scholarship (M) and an Athletic
scholarship (A). The probability that you receive an Athletic scholarship is 0.18. The
probability of receiving both scholarships is 0.11. The probability of getting at least one of the
scholarships is 0.3.

a. What is the probability that you will receive a Merit scholarship?


b. Are events A and M mutually exclusive? Why or why not? Explain.
c. What is the probability of receiving the only the Athletic scholarship?
Example 3:
As a company manager for Claimstat Corporation there is a 0.40 probability that
you will be promoted this year. There is a 0.72 probability that you will get a
promotion, a raise, or both. The probability of getting a promotion and a raise is
0.25.

a. What is the probability that you will get a raise?


b. Are these two events mutually exclusive? Explain using probabilities.
Example 4:
A bank has the following data on the gender and marital status of 200 customers.

Male Female
Single 20 30
Married 100 50

a. What is the probability of finding a single female customer?


b. What is the probability of finding a married male customer?
c. If a customer is female, what is the probability that she is single?
d. What percentage of customers is male?
e. If a customer is male, what is the probability that he is married?
f. Are gender and marital status mutually exclusive?
g. Is marital status independent of gender? Explain using probabilities.
Two of the cylinders in an eight-cylinder car are defective and need to
be replaced. If two cylinders are selected at random without
replacement, what is the probability that

a. both defective cylinders are selected?


b. no defective cylinder is selected?
c. at least one defective cylinder is selected?

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