YANGON TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

ELECTRICAL POWER DEPARTMENT

POWER SYSTEM LAB

POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY

Dr.Ohn Zin Lin

 One of The Most Important Things-

OBJECTIVES
Not Only For Class But Also For Life

Learning Approach

Assessment Methods

Syllabus
 way
ath
ic P Ph.D-Japan-
d em 2017
A ca
ME-Thailand-
2009

ME-MTU-2007

BE-MTU-2005
 Research Interested Field
Master: Impact of Voltage Dip and Protection
System on Distribution System Reliability

Doctoral: Assessment of Distribution System

Reliability Considering Variable Failure Rates

Interested Fields: Power System Reliability,

Distributed Generation, Sustainable Energy
 Other Interests
• Writing
The Voice Daily/Weekly Journal
Ohn Zin Lin-Education
 Scholarships

 Motivation
 Education
 Poems
https://www.facebook.com/ohnzinlinedu/
 Previous Postings
Pyin Oo Lwin-
CNC Maintenance

Myin Gyan- GTHS

Bae Lin-
Training Center
SELF-INTRODUCTION
 Assessment Methods
TEACHING OR LEARNING?

Not Going To Teach You ,

Just Lecture How to
Learn
Grade Point (Marking)Scheme
Journal Paper
Attendance Reading and Discussion
5% Presentation 5%
20 %

Case Study
Exam-50 (Paper Submission)
20 %

Every Student is mandatory

1. To read a journal paper and make presentation.
2. To ask at least 3 questions during the semester.
3. To write a paper for case study
Purpose of Education /Attending University

HARD SKILLS AND SOFT SKILLS?

 Examples of hard skills include:
• Proficiency in a foreign language
• A degree or certificate
• Typing speed
• Machine operation
• Computer programming
• Etc..
(These hard skills are often listed in your cover letter
 and on your resume, and are easy for an employer or
recruiter to recognize). 
 Examples of soft skills include:
 Communication
 Flexibility
 Leadership
 Motivation
 Patience
 Persuasion
 Problem Solving Abilities
 Teamwork
 Time Management
 Work Ethic
 Syllabus

• Generation System Reliability

• Transmission System Reliability
• Distribution System Reliability
• How to make Presentation
• How to write a research paper
 Aim and Objectives
• What is Power System Reliability?
• Why is it necessary to study?
• How can we apply it in practice?
 Power System Reliability

System Reliability- The ability of an electric

power network to provide an adequate supply
of electrical energy.
 Power System Reliability
• System adequacy - The availability of sufficient
generation, transmission and distribution facilities
within the system to provide the required electrical
energy to the customer load points.

• System security- The ability of the system to

respond to disturbances arising within the system and
is therefore linked with system dynamics.
 Analytical and Simulation
• Analytical techniques - the system by a mathematical
model and evaluate the reliability indices from this
model using direct numerical solutions. Short
computing time. Unfortunately, assumptions are
frequently required.
• Simulation methods - the reliability indices by
simulating the actual process and random behavior of
the system. The method therefore treats the problem
as a series of real experiments.
(Chapter-12 [1])
Why is it necessary to study?
Anybody likes Interruption?
 An electrical service interruption
can have a profound economic
impact.
If we have choice, which one will we
choose?
A key function of a power system is to
supply customers with electrical energy
as economically and reliably as possible.
How can we apply it in Practice?

• Current Reliability Condition of Any Area

• How to Improve the Reliability?
• Forecasting The Future Reliability
Hierarchical Levels in Electrical Power
system

Generation
HLI
Facilities

HLII
Transmission
Facilities

HLIII

Distribution
Facilities
Reliability Indices For Generation, HLI

• loss of load probability (LOLP),

• loss of load expectation (LOLE),
• loss of energy expectation (LOEE), expected
energy not supplied (EENS), expected
unserved energy (EUE),
• energy index of reliability (EIR),
• energy index of unreliability (EIU) and system
minutes (SM).
Index Definition
LOLP The probability that the load will exceed the
available generation
LOLE The average number of hours for which the load
is expected to exceed the available capacity
LOEE The expected energy that will not be supplied
due to those occasions
when the load exceeds the available generation
-same as EENS, EUE or similar terms
EIU LOEE normalized by dividing by the total
energy demanded
EIR 1-EIU
System minutes LOEE normalised by dividing by the peak
demand
 Reliability Indices For HLII
Qk = Probability of Failure
Fk = Frequency of Failure
Expected number of voltage violations
Expected number of load curtailments
Expected load curtailed
Expected energy not supplied
Expected duration of load curtailment
 Reliability Indices For HLIII
• SAIFI- System Average Interruption Frequency Index .In
the UK this is equivalent to the term, SECURITY
• SAIDI- System Average Interruption Duration Index. In
the UK this is equivalent to the term, AVAILABILITY
• CAIFI- Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index
In the UK this is equivalent to the number of customer
minutes lost per interruption
• CAIDI- Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
• ASAI Average Service Availability Index
• AENS/EENS- Average (Expected) Energy Not Supplied
 Typical Criteria
• Planning generating capacity—installed capacity = the
expected maximum Demand + a fixed percentage of the
expected maximum demand
• Operating capacity—spinning capacity = expected load
demand + a reserve equal to one or more largest units
• Planning network capacity—construct a minimum
number of circuits to a load group (generally known as an
(n - 1) or (n - 2) criterion depending on the amount of
redundancy), the minimum number being dependent on
the maximum demand of the group.
 Basic Steps
• understand the ways in which components
and system operate;
• identify the ways in which failures can occur;
• deduce the consequences of the failures;
• derive models to represent these
characteristics;
• only then select the evaluation technique.
Typical customer unavailability statistics

percentages

Generation/transmission

132kV

66kV and 33kV

11kV and 6.6 kV

low voltage

arranges shutdown
Reliability Cost and Reliability Worth

1.0

ΔR
Reliability R

ΔC

Investment Cost C
Reliability Costs

Investment
Cost

Cost associated with

Failures
 Reliability Cost Calculation
• How much For one unit?
 Depended on
- Area
- Type of Load
( Residential/ Commercial/ Industrial)
( Direct Cost and Indirect Cost)
 Data Collection
• requires reasonable and acceptable data
• The processing of this data occurs in two distinct
stages: Field Data is collected
: then analyzed to create statistical indices
• The quality of this data depends on two important
factors: confidence and relevance.
• two main bases for collecting
• data: the component approach and the unit
approach.
 Distribution systems—basic
techniques and radial networks
 The three basic reliability parameters

• Failure Rate - λ
• Outage Time ( Repair/Switching) – r
• Annual Outage Time – U
λs  iN1 λi interruption/yr (2.1)

N
Us   λi ri hr/yr (2.2)
i1

Us
rs  hr/yr
λs
(2.3)
 Type m a r rp S
Transformer
33/11 kV 0.05 0.015 -- 15.0 1.0
LT(11/4.4kV) ----- 0.015 200.0 10.0 1 .0
Breakers
33kV 0.002 0.0015 4.0 --- 1.0
11kV 0.006 0.0040 4.0 --- 1 .0
Bus bars
33kV 0.001 0.001 2.0 --- 1.0
11lkV 0.001 0.001 2.0 --- 1 .0
Lines
Note: Lines and 0.060
33kV Cables0.046failure8.0rates are--- in failure/yr-
2.0
km. Where LT is-----
11kV
Cables lateral0.065 5.0
transformer, --- 1.0

is momentary
11kV -----
failure
0.040
rate
30.0
(failure/yr),
--- 3.0

is active failure rate (failure/yr) , r is repair

m
time(hours) ,
a is replacement time of transformer and s is
switching
rp time (hours).
System Indices or Customer-orientated
Indices
total number of customer interrupti ons
SAIFI 
total number of customer sserved

 λi Ni
= interruption/customer/yr (2.4)
 Ni

sum of customer interrupti on duration

SAIDI 
total number of customer

 Ui Ni
= hr/customer/yr (2.5)
 Ni

sum of customer interrupti on duration

CAIDI 
total number of customer interrupti ons

 Ui Ni
= hr/ customer interruption /yr
λN
i i
Load- and Energy-oriented Indices
total energy demand inperiod of interest E d
La   (2.7)
period of interest t

Where L a is average load.

ENS   L a(i) U i (2.8)

where ENS is energy not supply, L a(i) is the average load connected to load point i
and U i is outage time at load point i.

L a(i) U i
AENS   (2.9)
Ni
where AENS is average energy not supply and N i is total number of customers
served.
Application to Radial System
Component (f/yr) r(hours) Load No of Average
 point customer Load
s connected(k
W)
Section     A 1000 5000
1 0.2 4      
2 0.1 4
3 0.3 4 B 800 4000
4 0.2 4      
Distributor     C 700 3000
a 0.2 2
     
b 0.6 2
c 0.4 2 D 500 2000
d 0.2 2
 Table 3‑1 Basic load point indices for example system
  Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D
Com  r U  r U  r U  r U
pone
nt
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
2 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
                         
a 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4

Total 2.2 2.73 6.0 2.2 2.73 6.0 1.0 2.73 6.0 2.2 2.73 6.0
 System indices and energy-oriented indices
SAIFI = (2.2+2.2+2.2+2.2)/4
= 2.2 interruptons/customer yr

SAIDI = (6.0+6.0+6.0+6.0)/4
= 6.0 hours/customer yr

CAIDI = (2.73+2.73+2.73+2.73)/4
=2.73 hours/customer interruption
ENS =6 x 14MW
=84 MWh/yr
AENS=84/3000
=28 kWh/yr-customers
 Reliability Improvement
• Improvement by Prospered Protection System
Conventional Protection Devices
 Automation Devices (SCADA)
• Distributed Generation
• Transformer Parallel Operation/ Double
Circuit/ Replacing
• Maintenance
• Any scheme to reduce the interruptions
 Reliability Improvement by Protection
System

• Adding protective device is one of the most

straightforward and effective methods for improving
distribution system reliability.
• Effect of lateral protection
• Effect of disconnection switches , and
• Effect of Protection Failures
Effect of Lateral Distributor Protection
Impact of fuse on system reliability indices
Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D
Comp
 r U  r U  r U  r 
-onent

1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8

2 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8

a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 3.6 3.6 1.4 3.14 4.4 1.2 3.33 4.0 1.0 3.6 3.6
 (1.0  1.4  1.2  1.0)
SAIFI 
4

=1.15 interruption/customer/ yr

sum of 
SAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(3.6  4.4  4.0  3.6)

SAIDI 
4

= 3.91 hours/customer/ yr

sum of r
CAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(3.6  3.14  3.33  3.6)

CAIDI 
4
= 3.39 hours/customer interruption

ENS  SAIDI  Total Load

ENS  3.91  14 =54.8 MWh/yr
ENS
AENS
numbe s of customer

=18.3 kWh/customer /yr

 Effect of Lateral Protection and
Disconnecting Switches

the total isolation and switching time be 0.5

hours.
Impact of fuse and disconnecting switches on system reliability

Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D

C  r U  r U  r U  r 

1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.1 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8

a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.89 2.65 1.2 2.75 3.3 1.0 3.6 3.6
 sum of 
SAIFI 
total number of loadpoints
(1.0  1.4  1.2  1.0)
SAIFI 
4

=1.15 interruption/customer/ yr

sum of 
SAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(1.5  2.65  3.3  3.6)

SAIDI 
4

= 2.58 hours/customer/ yr
SAIDI
CAIDI 
SAIFI

2.58
CAIDI 
1.15

= 2.24 hours/customer interruption

ENS  SAIDI Total Load

ENS  2.58 14 =35.2 MWh/yr
ENS
AENS
numbe s of customer

=11.7 kWh/customer yr.

 Effect of Protection Failure
Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D

C  r U  r U  r U  r 

1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.1 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8

a 0.2 2 0.4 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01
b 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.6 2 1.2 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.06 0.5 0.03
c 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.4 2 0.8 0.02 0.5 0.01
d 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.2 2 0.4
Tota 1.12 1.39 1.56 1.48 1.82 2.69 1.3 2.58 3.35 1.12 3.2 3.66
l
7
 The additional customer- and load-orientated indices are

• SAIFI = 1.26 interruptions/customer yr

• SAIDI = 2.63 hours/customer yr
• CAIDI = 2.09 hours/customer interruption
• ASU1 = 0.000300 ASAI = 0.999700
• ENS = 35.9 MWh/yr
• AENS = 12.0 kWh/customer yr
Reliability Improvement by Distributed
Generation
 Distributed /Dispersed /Embedded
Generation
 Embedded generation: Generation which is
connected to or ‘embedded in’ the distribution
network.
• common attributes may be listed as
 not centrally planned (by the utility)
 not centrally despatched
 normally smaller than 50–100 MW
 usually connected to the distribution system[2]
Design Rules
Radial distribution system with embedded
generator

DG
Reliability indices with embedded generation
(capacity > 14MW, can run independently)
Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D

C  r U  r U  r U  r 

1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 0.5 0.05
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.15
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8

a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.39 1.95 1.2 1.88 2.25 1.0 1.5 1.5
 sum of 
SAIFI 
total number of loadpoints
(1.0  1.4  1.2  1.0)
SAIFI 
4

=1.15 interruption/customer/ yr (Security)

sum of 
SAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(1.5  1.95  2.25  1.5)

SAIDI 
4

= 1.8 hours/customer/ yr (Availability)

SAIDI
CAIDI 
SAIFI

1.8
CAIDI 
1.15

= 1.565 hours/customer interruption

ENS  SAIDI Total Load

ENS  1.8 14 =25.2 MWh/yr
ENS
AENS
numbe s of customer

=8.4 kWh/customer yr.

 Reliability indices with embedded
generation (capacity = 5000 kW)
Load point A Load point B Load point C Load point D

C  r U  r U  r U  r 

1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 0.5 0.05
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.15
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8

a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.89 2.65 1.2 1.88 2.25 1.0 1.5 1.5
 sum of 
SAIFI 
total number of loadpoints
(1.0  1.4  1.2  1.0)
SAIFI 
4

=1.15 interruption/customer/ yr (Security)

sum of 
SAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(1.5  1.89  2.25  1.5)

SAIDI 
4
= 1.785 hours/customer/ yr (Availability)

SAIDI
CAIDI 
SAIFI

1.8
CAIDI 
1.15

= 1.55 hours/customer interruption

ENS  SAIDI Total Load

ENS  1.785 14 =24.99 MWh/yr
ENS
AENS
numbe s of customer

=8.33 kWh/customer yr.

Reliability indices with embedded generation
(capacity = 5000 kW, 25% can run)

25% can Run and 75% can not

For Load C
>>> (2.25*0.25)+(3.3*0.75)= 0.5625+2.475=3.04
For Load D
>>>(1.5*0.25)+(3.6*0.75)=0.375+2.7=3.075
 sum of 
SAIFI 
total number of loadpoints
(1.0  1.4  1.2  1.0)
SAIFI 
4

=1.15 interruption/customer/ yr (Security)

sum of 
SAIDI 
total number of loadpoints

(1.5  1.89  2.53  3.08)

SAIDI 
4

= 2.25 hours/customer/ yr (Availability)

SAIDI
CAIDI 
SAIFI

2.25
CAIDI 
1.15

= 1.96 hours/customer interruption

ENS  SAIDI  Total Load

ENS  2.25 14 =31.5 MWh/yr
ENS
AENS 
numbers of customer

=10.5 kWh/customer yr.

 Problem 1
The radial system is shown is Figure and four villages are connected in the
network. System data are described in tables. Village E also want to connect to
this network. The feeder is required to extend from section 4 and later line is
also connected from the extended feeder to Village E. The failure rate and the
average outage time of Village E is the same with Village B. There are 1200
customers at there and the average load is 6000 kW. Evaluate the basic
indices for each load point and reliability indices.

Component (f/yr) r(hours) Load point No of Average Load
customers connected(kW)
Section     Village A 1000 5000
1 0.1 5      
2 0.15 5
Village B 900 7000
3 0.2 5
4 0.25 5      
Distributor     Village C 700 4000
a 0.2 2
     
b 0.6 2
c 0.4 2 Village D 500 2000
d 0.2 2
Generating capacity—basic
probability methods
 Introduction
Generation Capacity Requirement

Static difference – Operating

time considered

forced outage rate (FOR)/unit

unavailability
Index Definition
LOLP The probability that the load will exceed the
available generation
LOLE The average number of hours for which the load
is expected to exceed the available capacity
LOEE The expected energy that will not be supplied
due to those occasions
when the load exceeds the available generation
-same as EENS, EUE or similar terms
EIU LOEE normalized by dividing by the total
energy demanded
EIR 1-EIU
System minutes LOEE normalised by dividing by the peak
demand
Conceptual tasks in generating capacity
reliability evaluation

Generation Load
 Generation Unit Unavailability

Unavailability, Forced outage rate (FOR)

 
𝑈=
𝜆
=
𝑟 𝑟 𝑓 
= = ¿ ∑ [ down   time ]
𝜆 +𝜇 𝑚+ 𝑟 𝑇 𝜇
∑ [ down   time]+ ∑ [ up  time]
Availability,
  𝜇 𝑚 𝑚 𝑓  ∑ [ up  time]
𝑈= = = = ¿
𝜆 +𝜇 𝑚+ 𝑟 𝑇 𝜆 ∑ [ down   time]+ ∑ [ up  time]
 =expected failure rate, = expected repair rate
m= mean time to failure = MTTF = 1/
r= mean time to repair = MTTR = 1/
m+r= mean time b/w failures = MTBF = 1/f
f= cycle frequency =1/T, T=cycle time = 1/f
 Capacity Outage Probability Tables
Two 3 MW Units and one 6 MW Unit. FOR = 0.02

Only two 3 MW units

Both are good>(1-0.02)*(1-0.02)=0.9604
1 G and 1 N> (0.98*0.02)+(0.98*0.02)
Both Out>>> 0.02*0.02
Independent to other
units
1-0.941192=0.058808
24 units of 10 MW, FOR = 0.01

n! nout nservice
P(out ) P ( service)
(n  nout )!(nout )!
Recursive Algorithm For Capacity Model
Building
Loss of Load Indices