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Chapter 5 Elementery Probability

This chapter discusses elementary probability concepts. It defines key terms like experiment, outcome, sample space, and event. It presents different approaches to defining probability, including the classical and relative frequency approaches. It also covers rules of probability like addition rule, multiplication rule, and conditional probability. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts like independent and dependent events, as well as how to calculate probabilities.

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111 views

Chapter 5 Elementery Probability

This chapter discusses elementary probability concepts. It defines key terms like experiment, outcome, sample space, and event. It presents different approaches to defining probability, including the classical and relative frequency approaches. It also covers rules of probability like addition rule, multiplication rule, and conditional probability. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts like independent and dependent events, as well as how to calculate probabilities.

Uploaded by

yonas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter Five (5)

Elementary Probability
Introduction

Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of inference


is built.
It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment. It
is the measure of how likely an outcome is to occur.
Definitions of some probability terms
 Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any
process which generates well defined outcome.
 Random Experiment: is a process of measurement or
observation which is repeated at any time and whose outcome
can’t be predicted with certainty. E.g. tossing a coin
 Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
 Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment. Each possible outcome is called sample point.
 Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one
or more outcomes of a random experiment .
Example: a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible
outcomes i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & let A be the event of odd numbers, B be
the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.

 A  1,3,5
B   2,4,6
C   or empty space or impossible event
•Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means
non-occurrence of A and is denoted by Contains those points of the
sample space which don’t belong to A.
Mutually exclusive event: -Two events which cannot happen at
the same time. Here the two events have no common point or they
have no intersection point i.e. E1n E2 =empty .
There fore, P (E1U E2) = P (E1) + P (E2).

E1 E2
Independent event: two events E1 and E2 are said to be independent
if the probability of the occurrence or non occurrence of one event
cannot affect the probability of the occurrence or non occurrence of
the other.
Equally likely outcomes:- if each outcome in a sample space has the
same chance to be occurred.
Example: In throwing a fair die all possible outcomes are equally likely.
That means the elements of the sample space have equal chance to be
occurred.
 Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the
probability is changed.
Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment
•Toss a die one time.
•Toss a coin two times.
Solution
•S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
•S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
a)Sample space can be
Countable ( finite or infinite)
Uncountable.
Definition of probability
Probability:-is a chance (likely hood) of occurrence of an event. It is
expressed by a numerical value between 0 and 1 inclusively.
Probability is a building block of inferential statistics.
Generally probability can be divided into two
Subjective probability: - probability of an event in a certain
experiment to be occurred based on individual’s belief or attitude.
Objective probability: - the probability of an event in a certain
experiment based on experimental evidence.
Counting techniques:

In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several
rules of counting.

The multiplication rule


Permutation rule
Combination rule
a)The Multiplication Rule
 If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1
ways, the second can be made in n2 ways, …, the kth can be made in
nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in
b) Permutation
An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called
permutation of the objects.
In this case order is crucial.
Permutation Rules:
1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together
is n!
Where
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at
a time is called the permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time.
It is written as and the formula is
Example:
1.Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
1.How many permutations are there taking all the four?
2.How many permutations are there if two letters are used at a
time?
Solutions: 1. a)
Here n=4, there are four distinct objects
 there are 4!= 4*3*2*1= 24
Here n=4, r=2 there fore that
b)Here n  4, r  2
4! 24
 There are 4 P2    12 permutations.
( 4  2)! 2
2.
Here n  10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O, 2 are R ,1E ,1T ,1I ,1N
 K1  2, k 2  2, k 3  2, k 4  k 5  k 6  k 7  1
U sin g the 3 rd rule of permutation , there are
10!
 453600 permutations.
2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1!
3. Combination: - counting technique in which the order of the objects
is immaterial. Selection of r objects from a collection of n objects
where r<= n without regarding order.
•The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is
denoted by and is given by the formula:

Example: In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is


to be formed. In how many ways can the committee be formed?
Solution: 7C3 = 7! / (7-3)! 3! = 35
Basic approaches to probability
1. Classical approach:
2. Relative frequency Approach (empirical approach)

Classical approach:
- Uses sample space to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen. If there are n equally likely outcomes of an
experiment, and out of the n outcomes event E occur only k times the
probability of the event E is denoted by P (E) is defined as
P(E)= No. of outcomes favorable to E
Total number of outcomes

#### P (E) = n (E)/ n(S) =k/n


Deficiencies of classical approach
•If total number of outcomes is infinite or if it is not possible to
enumerate all elements of the sample space.
•If each out come is not equally likely
Example: in the experiment of tossing a coin and a die together, find
the probability of an event E consisting head and even numbers.
Solution: S={H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6} then
E= {H2, H4, H6} thus, P (E) =n (E)/n(S) =3/12= ¼
Relative frequency Approach (empirical approach):- suppose we
repeat a certain experiment n times and let A be an event of the
experiment and let k be the number of times that event A occurs. Then
the ratio k/n is called the relative frequency of event A.

number of times event A has occurred k


P( A)  
total number of observatio ns n

In other words given a frequency distribution , the probability of an


event (E) being in a given class is P(E)=
frquency of a class
total frequency in the distributi on
Example: the national center for health statistics reported out of
every 539 deaths in recent years, 24 resulted from automobile
accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other disease. What is the
probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident?
Solution P (automobile) = death due to automobile /total death
=24/539
Axioms of probability
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated
with E. With each event A a real number called the probability of A
satisfies the following properties called axioms of probability or
postulates of probability
1. 0 < P (A) ≤ 1, for each event A, P (A) is called probability of A
2. P (S) = 1
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P (AU B) = P (A) +
P(B)
4. If A and B are independent events, the probability that both will
occur is the product of the two probabilities. i.e.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)*P(B)
THEOREMS ON PROBABILITIES OF EVENTS
 1. Probability of the impossible event is zero, i.e. P () = 0;
Proof: sample space and empty set are mutually exclusive i.e. their
intersection point will become zero then:
2. let A be an event and A. ‘be the complement of A with respect to a
given sample space of an experiment then p(A’)=1-P(A)
Proof: let S be a sample space
S=Au A’
3. For any two events A and B,
to proof this theorem consider:

(AnB)U(A’nB)=B
5. Probability of the Union of any two events A and B is given by

Proof:
sum of spots on the face of the die that turn up is divisible by 2 or 3.
Solution:
S= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),
(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}
This sample space has 6*6 =36 elements let E1 be the event that the
sum of the spots on the die is divisible by 2 and E2 be the event that the
sum of the spots on the die is divisible by 3, then
P (E1 or E2) = P (E1u E2)
= P (E1) +P (E2) – P (E1 n E2)
= 18/36 + 12/36 -6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3
Conditional probability
The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already
occurred, denoted by
P(A/B)=P(A n B)/P(B), P(B)>0
P(B/A)=P(B n A)/P(A), P(A)>0
If the two events A&B are independent then the conditional
probability is given as:
P(A/B)=P(A ) & P(B/A)=P(B)
Exercise:1. If A and B are independent events then A and A’ are also
independent events.
Proof:
1.Four a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the
probability is 0.25 that he/she will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she
will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she will get scholarship and
will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who get a
scholarship graduate?
Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a scholarship
B= the event that a student will graduate
Example
Suppose your chance of being offered a certain job is 0.45, your
probability of getting another job is 0.55, and your probability of being
offered both jobs is 0.30. What is the probability that you will be offered
at least one of the two jobs?
Solution: Let A be the event that the first job is offered and B the event
that the second job is offered. Then,
Example
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the
probability that the card drawn is either a king or a queen.
Solution: Let A be the event that a king is drawn and B the event that a
queen is drawn. Since A and B are two mutually exclusive events, we
have,
Example
1. Given P[A] = .5 and P[A u B) = .6, find P[B] if:
(a) A and B are mutually exclusive.
(b) A and B are independent.
(c) P[A / B] = .4.

2. If A and B are independent, P[A] = 0.33, and P[B] =0.25 , find P[A u
B].
3. If P[A] =P[B]=P[BI A) = 0.5, are A and B independent?
4. If A and B are independent and P[A) =P[BIA) = 0.5, what is P[A u
B]?

5. Given P[A] = .5 and P[A UB] = .7:


(a) Find P[B] if A and B are independent.
(b) Find P[B] if A and B are mutually exclusive.
(c) Find P[B] if P[A / B] =.5.

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