Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edward’s University

© 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning Slide

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 Chapter 7
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
 Simple Random Sampling
 Point Estimation
 Introduction to Sampling Distributions
 Sampling Distribution of x
 Sampling Distribution of p n = 100
 Properties of Point Estimators
 Other Sampling Methods

n = 30

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 Statistical Inference

 The purpose of statistical inference is to obtain

information about a population from information
contained in a sample.
 A population is the set of all the elements of interest.
 A sample is a subset of the population.
 The sample results provide only estimates of the
values of the population characteristics.
 A parameter is a numerical characteristic of a
population.
 With proper sampling methods, the sample results
will provide “good” estimates of the population
characteristics.

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 Simple Random Sampling

 Finite Population
• A simple random sample from a finite population
of size N is a sample selected such that each
possible sample of size n has the same probability
of being selected.
• Replacing each sampled element before selecting
subsequent elements is called sampling with
replacement.
• Sampling without replacement is the procedure
used most often.
• In large sampling projects, computer-generated
random numbers are often used to automate the
sample selection process.
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 Simple Random Sampling

 Infinite Population
• A simple random sample from an infinite
population is a sample selected such that the
following conditions are satisfied.
• Each element selected comes from the same
population.
• Each element is selected independently.
• The population is usually considered infinite if it
involves an ongoing process that makes listing or
counting every element impossible.
• The random number selection procedure cannot
be used for infinite populations.

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 Point Estimation

 In point estimation we use the data from the sample

to compute a value of a sample statistic that serves as
an estimate of a population parameter.
 We refer to x as the point estimator of the population
mean .
 s is the point estimator of the population standard
deviation .
 p is the point estimator of the population proportion
p.

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 Sampling Error

 The absolute difference between an unbiased point

estimate and the corresponding population
parameter is called the sampling error.
 Sampling error is the result of using a subset of the
population (the sample), and not the entire
population to develop estimates.
 The sampling errors are:
| x   | for sample mean
| s -  for sample standard deviation
| p  p | for sample proportion

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

St. Andrew’s University receives 900 applications

annually from prospective students. The application
forms contain a variety of information including the
individual’s scholastic aptitude test (SAT) score and
whether or not the individual desires on-campus
housing.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

The director of admissions would like to know the

following information:
• the average SAT score for the applicants, and
• the proportion of applicants that want to live on
campus.
We will now look at three alternatives for obtaining
the desired information.
• Conducting a census of the entire 900 applicants
• Selecting a sample of 30 applicants, using a
random number table
• Selecting a sample of 30 applicants, using
computer-generated random numbers

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Taking a Census of the 900 Applicants

• SAT Scores
• Population Mean


 x i
 990
900
• Population Standard Deviation


 (x   )
i
2

 80
900
• Applicants Wanting On-Campus Housing
• Population Proportion
648
p  .72
900
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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Take a Sample of 30Applicants Using a Random

Number Table
Since the finite population has 900 elements, we
will need 3-digit random numbers to randomly select
applicants numbered from 1 to 900.
We will use the last three digits of the 5-digit
random numbers in the third column of a random
number table. The numbers we draw will be the
numbers of the applicants we will sample unless
• the random number is greater than 900 or
• the random number has already been used.
We will continue to draw random numbers until we
have selected 30 applicants for our sample.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Use of Random Numbers for Sampling

3-Digit Applicant
Random Number Included in Sample
744 No. 744
436 No. 436
865 No. 865
790 No. 790
835 No. 835
902 Number exceeds 900
190 No. 190
436 Number already used
etc. etc.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Sample Data
Random
No. Number Applicant SAT Score On-
Campus
1 744 Connie Reyman 1025 Yes
2 436 William Fox 950 Yes
3 865 Fabian Avante 1090 No
4 790 Eric Paxton 1120 Yes
5 835 Winona Wheeler 1015 No
. . . . .
30 685 Kevin Cossack 965 No

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Take a Sample of 30 Applicants Using Computer-

Generated Random Numbers
• Excel provides a function for generating random
numbers in its worksheet.
• 900 random numbers are generated, one for each
applicant in the population.
• Then we choose the 30 applicants corresponding
to the 30 smallest random numbers as our sample.
• Each of the 900 applicants have the same
probability of being included.

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 Using Excel to Select
a Simple Random Sample
 Formula Worksheet
A B C D
Applicant SAT On-Campus Random
1 Number Score Housing Number
2 1 1008 Yes =RAND()
3 2 1025 No =RAND()
4 3 952 Yes =RAND()
5 4 1090 Yes =RAND()
6 5 1127 Yes =RAND()
7 6 1015 No =RAND()
8 7 965 Yes =RAND()
9 8 1161 No =RAND()

Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

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 Using Excel to Select
a Simple Random Sample
 Value Worksheet
A B C D
Applicant SAT On-Campus Random
1 Number Score Housing Number
2 1 1008 Yes 0.41327
3 2 1025 No 0.79514
4 3 952 Yes 0.66237
5 4 1090 Yes 0.00234
6 5 1127 Yes 0.71205
7 6 1015 No 0.18037
8 7 965 Yes 0.71607
9 8 1161 No 0.90512

Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

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 Using Excel to Select
a Simple Random Sample
 Value Worksheet (Sorted)
A B C D
Applicant SAT On-Campus Random
1 Number Score Housing Number
2 12 1107 No 0.00027
3 773 1043 Yes 0.00192
4 408 991 Yes 0.00303
5 58 1008 No 0.00481
6 116 1127 Yes 0.00538
7 185 982 Yes 0.00583
8 510 1163 Yes 0.00649
9 394 1008 No 0.00667
Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Point Estimates
• x as Point Estimator of 
x
 x

29,910
i
 997
30 30
• s as Point Estimator of 
s
(x  x ) 
i
2
163,996
 75.2
29 29
• p as Point Estimator of p
p  20 30  .68
 Note: Different random numbers would have
identified a different sample which would have
resulted in different point estimates.

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 Sampling Distribution of x

 Process of Statistical Inference

Population A simple random sample

with mean of n elements is selected
=? from the population.

The value of x is used to The sample data

make inferences about provide a value for
the value of . the sample mean x.

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 Sampling Distribution of x

 The sampling distribution of x is the probability

distribution of all possible values of the sample
mean x .
 Expected Value ofx

E( x ) = 

where:
 = the population mean

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 Sampling Distribution of x

 Standard Deviation ofx

Finite Population Infinite Population

 N n 
x  ( ) x 
n N 1 n
• A finite population is treated as being infinite if
n/N < .05.
• ( N  n) / ( N  1) is the finite correction factor.
•  x is referred to as the standard error of the mean.

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 Sampling Distribution ofx

 If we use a large (n > 30) simple random sample, the

central limit theorem enables us to conclude that the
sampling distribution of x can be approximated by a
normal probability distribution.
 When the simple random sample is small (n < 30), the
sampling distribution of x can be considered normal
only if we assume the population has a normal
probability distribution.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Sampling Distribution ofx for the SAT Scores

 80
x    14.6
n 30

x
E ( x )    990

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 Sampling Distribution ofx for the SAT Scores

What is the probability that a simple random
sample of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of
the population mean SAT score that is within plus or
minus 10 of the actual population mean ?
x
In other words, what is the probability that
will be between 980 and 1000?

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 x
Sampling Distribution of for the SAT Scores

Sampling
distribution
of x

Area = .2518 Area = .2518

x
980 990 1000
Using the standard normal probability table with
z = 10/14.6= .68, we have area = (.2518)(2) = .5036

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 Sampling Distribution of p

 The sampling distribution pof is the probability

distribution of all possible values of the sample
p
proportion

p
 Expected Value of
E ( p)  p

where:
p = the population proportion

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 Sampling Distribution ofp

 Standard Deviation of p

Finite Population Infinite Population

p (1  p ) N  n p(1  p )
p  p 
n N 1 n

•  p is referred to as the standard error of the

proportion.

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 p
Sampling Distribution of for In-State Residents

.72(1  .72)
p   .082
30

E( p )  .72

The normal probability distribution is an acceptable

approximation since np = 30(.72) = 21.6 > 5 and
n(1 - p) = 30(.28) = 8.4 > 5.
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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 p for In-State Residents

Sampling Distribution of
What is the probability that a simple random
sample of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of
the population proportion of applicants desiring on-
campus housing that is within plus or minus .05 of
the actual population proportion?
p
In other words, what is the probability that
will be between .67 and .77?

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 Example: St. Andrew’s

 p
Sampling Distribution of for In-State Residents

Sampling
distribution
of p

Area = .2291 Area = .2291

p
0.67 0.72 0.77
For z = .05/.082 = .61, the area = (.2291)(2) = .4582.
The probability is .4582 that the sample proportion
will be within +/-.05 of the actual population
proportion.
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 Properties of Point Estimators

 Before using a sample statistic as a point estimator,

statisticians check to see whether the sample statistic
has the following properties associated with good
point estimators.
• Unbiasedness
• Efficiency
• Consistency

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 Properties of Point Estimators

 Unbiasedness
If the expected value of the sample statistic is
equal to the population parameter being estimated,
the sample statistic is said to be an unbiased
estimator of the population parameter.

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 Properties of Point Estimators

 Efficiency
Given the choice of two unbiased estimators of
the same population parameter, we would prefer to
use the point estimator with the smaller standard
deviation, since it tends to provide estimates closer to
the population parameter.
The point estimator with the smaller standard
deviation is said to have greater relative efficiency
than the other.

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 Properties of Point Estimators

 Consistency
A point estimator is consistent if the values of the
point estimator tend to become closer to the
population parameter as the sample size becomes
larger.

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 Other Sampling Methods

 Stratified Random Sampling

 Cluster Sampling
 Systematic Sampling
 Convenience Sampling
 Judgment Sampling

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 Stratified Random Sampling

 The population is first divided into groups of

elements called strata.
 Each element in the population belongs to one and
only one stratum.
 Best results are obtained when the elements within
each stratum are as much alike as possible (i.e.
homogeneous group).
 A simple random sample is taken from each stratum.
 Formulas are available for combining the stratum
sample results into one population parameter
estimate.

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 Stratified Random Sampling

 Advantage: If strata are homogeneous, this method

is as “precise” as simple random sampling but with a
smaller total sample size.
 Example: The basis for forming the strata might be
department, location, age, industry type, etc.

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 Cluster Sampling

 The population is first divided into separate groups

of elements called clusters.
 Ideally, each cluster is a representative small-scale
version of the population (i.e. heterogeneous group).
 A simple random sample of the clusters is then taken.
 All elements within each sampled (chosen) cluster
form the sample.
… continued

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 Cluster Sampling

 Advantage: The close proximity of elements can be

cost effective (I.e. many sample observations can be
obtained in a short time).
 Disadvantage: This method generally requires a
larger total sample size than simple or stratified
random sampling.
 Example: A primary application is area sampling,
where clusters are city blocks or other well-defined
areas.

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 Systematic Sampling

 If a sample size of n is desired from a population

containing N elements, we might sample one element
for every n/N elements in the population.
 We randomly select one of the first n/N elements
from the population list.
 We then select every n/Nth element that follows in
the population list.
 This method has the properties of a simple random
sample, especially if the list of the population
elements is a random ordering.
… continued

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 Systematic Sampling

 Advantage: The sample usually will be easier to

identify than it would be if simple random sampling
were used.
 Example: Selecting every 100th listing in a telephone
book after the first randomly selected listing.

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 Convenience Sampling

 It is a nonprobability sampling technique. Items are

included in the sample without known probabilities
of being selected.
 The sample is identified primarily by convenience.
 Advantage: Sample selection and data collection are
relatively easy.
 Disadvantage: It is impossible to determine how
representative of the population the sample is.
 Example: A professor conducting research might use
student volunteers to constitute a sample.

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 Judgment Sampling

 The person most knowledgeable on the subject of the

study selects elements of the population that he or
she feels are most representative of the population.
 It is a nonprobability sampling technique.
 Advantage: It is a relatively easy way of selecting a
sample.
 Disadvantage: The quality of the sample results
depends on the judgment of the person selecting the
sample.
 Example: A reporter might sample three or four
senators, judging them as reflecting the general
opinion of the senate.

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End of Chapter 7

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