NET PRESENT VALUE

Mod. 4.3 VCM

Net Present Value
 The difference between the market value of a
project and its cost
 How much value is created from undertaking an
investment?
🞑 The first step is to estimate the expected future cash flows.
🞑 The second step is to estimate the required return for
projects of this risk level.
🞑 The third step is to find the present value of the cash flows
and subtract the initial investment.
Project Example Information
 You are reviewing a new project and have
estimated the following cash flows:
🞑 Year 0: CF = -165,000
🞑 Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620
🞑 Year 2: CF = 70,800; NI = 3,300
🞑 Year 3: CF = 91,080; NI = 29,100
🞑 Average Book Value = 72,000

 Your required return for assets of this risk level is

12%.
NPV – Decision Rule
 If the NPV is positive, accept the project
 A positive NPV means that the project is
expected to add value to the firm and will
therefore increase the wealth of the owners.
 Since our goal is to increase owner wealth, NPV is a
direct measure of how well this project will meet
our goal.
Computing NPV for the Project

 Using the formulas:

🞑 NPV = -165,000 + 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12)2 +
91,080/(1.12)3 = 12,627.41
 Do we accept or reject the project?
Discount Cash Flows not Profit
 Calculate net present value you need
to discount cash flows, not accounting profits

 For example, suppose that you are analyzing an

investment proposal. It costs $2,000 and is expected to bring in a cash
flow of
$1,500 in the first year and $500 in the second. You think that the
opportunity cost of capital is 10%
Discount Cash Flows not Profit
Payback Period
 How long does it take to get the initial cost back in
a nominal sense?
 Computation
🞑 Estimate the cash flows
🞑 Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost until the
initial investment has been recovered
 Decision Rule – Accept if the payback period
is less than some preset limit
Computing Payback for the Project
 Assume we will accept the project if it pays back
within two years.
🞑 Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120 = 101,880 still to recover
🞑 Year 2: 101,880 – 70,800 = 31,080 still to recover

🞑 Year 3: 31,080 – 91,080 = -60,000 project pays back

in year 3
 Do we accept or reject the project?
 Advantages and Disadvantages of
Payback
 Advantages  Disadvantages
🞑 Easy to understand 🞑 Ignores the time value
of money
🞑 Requires an arbitrary
🞑 Adjustsfor cutoff point
uncertainty of later 🞑 Ignores cash flows
cash flows beyond the cutoff date
🞑 Biased against long- term
projects, such as
research and
development, and new
projects
Discounted Payback Period
 Compute the present value of each cash flow and
then determine how long it takes to pay back on
a discounted basis
 Compare to a specified required period
 Decision Rule - Accept the project if it pays
back on a discounted basis within the
specified time
 Computing Discounted Payback for the
Project
 Assume we will accept the project if it pays back on a
discounted basis in 2 years.
 Compute the PV for each cash flow and determine the
payback period using discounted cash flows
🞑 Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120/1.121 = 108,643
🞑 Year 2: 108,643 – 70,800/1.122 = 52,202
🞑 Year 3: 52,202 – 91,080/1.123 = -12,627 project pays
back
in year 3
 Do we accept or reject the project?
Advantages and Disadvantages of
Discounted Payback
 Advantages  Disadvantages
🞑 Includes time value 🞑May reject positive NPV
of money investments
🞑 Easy to understand 🞑 Requires an arbitrary

🞑 Does not accept cutoff point

negative estimated 🞑 Ignores cash flows
NPV investments beyond the cutoff point
when all future cash 🞑 Biased against long- term
flows are positive projects, such as R&D
and new products
Internal Rate of Return
 This is the most important alternative to NPV
 It is often used in practice and is intuitively
appealing
 It is based entirely on the estimated cash flows and
is independent of interest rates found elsewhere
IRR – Definition and Decision Rule

 Definition: IRR is the return that makes the

NPV = 0
 Decision Rule: Accept the project if the
IRR is greater than the required return
Computing IRR for the Project
 Rate of Return= profit/investment
=C-investment/investment
 You planned to invest $350,000 to get back a
cashflow of C=$400,000 in 1 year. Calculate rate
of return?
 Do we accept or reject the project?
Advantages of IRR
 Knowing a return is intuitively appealing
 It is a simple way to communicate the value of a
project to someone who doesn’t know all the
estimation details
 If the IRR is high enough, you may not need to
estimate a required return, which is often a
difficult task
 Summary of Decisions for the
Project
Summary
Net Present Value Accept

Payback Period Reject

Discounted Payback Period Reject

Internal Rate of Return Accept

NPV Rule v/s Rate of Return Rule

 NPV rule: Invest in any project that has a positive

NPV when cashflows are discounted at the
opportunity cost of capital (expected rate of
return).
 Rate of Return rule: Invest in any project
offering a rate of return that is higher than the
opportunity cost of capital.
NPV vs. IRR
 NPV and IRR will generally give us the same
decision
🞑 NPV=Initialinvestment + Cashflow(year1)/1+r
🞑 -$350,000+$400,000/1+1.143=0
 Exceptions
🞑 Mutually exclusive projects
 Initial investments are substantially different (issue of
scale)
 Timing of cash flows is substantially different
IRR and Mutually Exclusive
Projects
 Mutually exclusive projects
🞑 If you choose one, you can’t choose the other
🞑 Example: You can choose to attend graduate
school at either Harvard or Stanford, but not
both
 Intuitively, you would use the following
decision rules:
🞑 NPV – choose the project with the higher
NPV
🞑 IRR – choose the project with the higher
IRR
Example With Mutually
Exclusive Projects
Period Project Project
The required return
A B
for both projects is
0 -500 -400 10%.
1 325 325

2 325 200 Which project

should you accept
IRR 19.43% 22.17% and why?
NPV 64.05 60.74
NPV Profiles
IRR for A =
$160.00
$140.00 19.43% IRR for B
$120.00
$100.00 = 22.17%
$80.00
Crossover Point = A
NPV

$60.00
$40.00
11.8%
B
$20.00
$0.00
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
($20.00) 0
($40.00)
Discount Rate
Conflicts Between NPV and IRR
 NPV directly measures the increase in value to the
firm
 Whenever there is a conflict between NPV and
another decision rule, you should always use
NPV
 IRR is unreliable in the following situations
🞑 Nonconventional cash flows
🞑 Mutually exclusive projects
Profitability Index
 Measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the
time value of money
 A profitability index of 1.1 implies that for every
$1 of investment, we create an additional
$0.10 in value
 This measure can be very useful in situations in
which we have limited capital
Profitability Index
 Profitability Index (PI)= Net Present Value/ Initial
Invt
Project PV Invt NPV PI
J $4 $3 $1 1/3=0.33
K $6 $5 $1 1/5=0.20
L $ 10 $7 $3 3/7=0.43
M $8 $6 $2 2/6=0.33
N $5 $4 $1 ¼=0.25

 Which project to be opted first?

🞑 Project L, J, M
The End