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7.1 Simulation and Random Numbers: - What Is A Simulation?

Here are the probabilities requested: - Logarithmic Luao and then a Probability Party: 7/20 * 3/19 = 1/57 - Exponential Extravaganza and then a Probability Party: 10/20 * 3/19 = 3/57 - 2 Probability Parties: 3/20 * 2/19 = 1/190

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72 views24 pages

7.1 Simulation and Random Numbers: - What Is A Simulation?

Here are the probabilities requested: - Logarithmic Luao and then a Probability Party: 7/20 * 3/19 = 1/57 - Exponential Extravaganza and then a Probability Party: 10/20 * 3/19 = 3/57 - 2 Probability Parties: 3/20 * 2/19 = 1/190

Uploaded by

kerryvogelgesang
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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7.

1 Simulation and
Random Numbers
• What is a simulation?

• How to generate a list of random


numbers on the calculator…
randint(first #, last #, # of trials)
Examples on Calculator
• Run a simulation for rolling a die 20
times

• Run a simulation for flipping a coin 50


times
– What is the longest streak???
Problem of the Day

A standard deck of playing cards (52 cards) is well-shuffled


and the top card is dealt. What is the probability that
this card is…
a. a red 3?
b. not a red 3?
c. a black face card?
d. a red club?
e. a non-ace
f. a black OR a face card
g. a seven OR a queen
Section 7.2
Probability of Either of Two Events
• What is the probability of obtaining two
heads when two coins are tossed?

P(event) = # success
total possibilities

When three coins are tossed, what is the probability


a) that all three are heads?
b) that two are heads?
Discrete VS Continuous
• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS – two
events that cannot happen at the same
time
• Ex: Getting a face card and getting a four
in a standard deck.
– In other words, getting a face card THAT IS a
four

• Ex: Getting a spade and getting a red card

• Ex: Rolling an even number and rolling a


multiple of 5 on a die
The following are NOT mutually
exclusive events
• Choosing a red card and choosing a king in a
standard deck

• Getting a heart and getting a face card

• Rolling an even number and rolling a multiple


of 3

• Owning a cat and owning a dog


Probability of A OR B
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
IF A and B are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A and B)


IF A and B are NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Examples
• 1. Find the probability of getting a face
card or a 3 when choosing one card out of
a deck.

• 2. Find the probability of getting a


diamond or a king when choosing one
card.

• **3. Find the probability of getting two


hearts when dealing two cards.
Complementary Events

P (not A) = 1 – P(A)
Warm Up
Major Freshmen Soph’mrs Juniors Seniors Total

Natural 50 35 33 29 147
Science

Social 20 25 28 24 97
Science

Humanities 40 40 39 37 156
Total 110 100 100 90 400

If you pick a student at random, what’s the probability:


a. They’re a natural science major?
b. They’re a freshman in social science?
c. They’re a freshman or in social science?
d. They’re a humanities or natural science major?
e. They’re a junior or senior in humanities?
f. They’re a senior and natural science major?
7.4 Conditional Probability and
Independent Events
• INDEPENDENT EVENTS
– The occurrence of one event does not affect
the probability of a second event
– Ex: Rolling a die twice – what you get on the
first roll does not affect what you get on the
second roll
– Ex: Choosing a card from a deck, replacing it,
and choosing another.
– Note: when there’s replacement of items the
events are independent
• DEPENDENT EVENTS – The
occurrence of one event does affect the
probability of a second event
• Ex: Deal a card from a standard deck,
then deal a second card
• Ex: Choose an M&M from the bag, eat
it, and choose another
Probability of Multiple Events
A AND B
P (A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
IF A and B are INDEPENDENT

Ex: P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.3


P(A and B) =0.5*0.3= 0.15

Ex: Find the probability of rolling two sixes


P(6) = 1/6
P(6 and 6) =1/6*1/6 = 1/36
Dependent Events
• Consider a bag filled with 18 marbles:
3 red, 5 yellow, 8 blue, and 2 green
• Find the probability of picking without
replacement
– A yellow first and blue second
– A yellow OR a blue
– A green first and red second
– Two blues and then a green
– Two blues OR 2 greens
– 3 red and then 3 green
– A red and a green (not necessarily in that
order
– No blue when three marbles are drawn.
Tree Diagrams
• A box contains 4 gift certificates to Sara
Li’s and 7 gift certificates to Bella Vista
for a free pizza. If Cathrine and Min Ah
are allowed to each pick once from the
box, what are all the possible outcomes
(Cathrine goes first)? Set up a tree
diagram.
Cont…
• What’s the probability that Cathrine gets
a free pizza and Min Ah gets Sara Li’s?
• What’s the probability they both get free
pizza?
• What’s the probability they get different
gift certificates?
Tree Diagrams Example
In Verona, when it snows at least 4 inches, they close the
schools 80% of the time. When it snows less than 4 inches
they close the schools 20% of the time. 30% of snowfalls
are at least 4 inches.

What's the probability they close the schools when it snows?


P(<4) P(>=4)
0.7 0.3

P(C|<4) P(C|>=4)
0.2 0.8

0.14 0.24
P(<4 and Close) P(>=4 and Close))

P(Close) = 0.14 + 0.24 = 0.38


< 4 in >= 4 in

Closed 0.14 0.24 0.38

Not 0.56 0.06 0.62


Closed
0.7 0.3 1
7.4 Conditional Probability
 ConditionalProbability contains a
condition that may limit the sample space

P(B | A) Probability of event B given event A


Are you going home or away over spring
break?

P(person is male)
home away

male P(person is going home)

female P(female and is going home)

P(will go away male)


Example
• Three cards are drawn from a standard
deck of cards with-out replacement.
Find the probability of drawing a heart,
another heart, and a spade in that order.
Warmup
 Carlo decided to join Jean Mark at math camp. While
there, he wins an Integrated 3 competition and gets
to pick two chips from a bag to determine his prize.
Of the 20 chips in the bag , 10 say Exponential
Extravaganza, 7 say Logarithmic Luao, and 3 say
Probability Party. Drawing at random and without
replacement, what is the probability that Carlo would
win the following:
 Logarithmic Luao and then a Probability Party
 Exponential Extravaganza and then a Probability
Party
 2 Probability Parties (can you imagine the amount of
fun to be had?)

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