Probability Distribution

Concept of Probability Distribution

Age Frequency
20 3
30 6
40 5
50 4
60 2
Total 20
Concept of Probability Distribution
Age Probability
(X=r) Frequency (P(X=r)) Percentage
20 3 0.15 15
30 6 0.3 30
40 5 0.25 25
50 4 0.2 20
60 2 0.1 10
Total 20 1 100
Here , r is an event P (X=20)=0.15 P(50<=X<= 60) =0.3,P(x<= 30)=
0.45 P(X<50)=?
 Conclusion
• Total probability is 1. ∑ P(X=r) =1
• 0≤ P(X=r) ≤ 1

Note :
∑ P(X=r) =1

P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) +………………………+P(X=n)= 1

Types of Probability Distribution

1. Binomial Distribution
2. Poisson Distribution
3. Normal Distribution
 Characteristics
Binomial Distribution
of B.D and P.D
Poisson Distribution
Discrete probability distribution Discrete probability distribution
(0, 1,2……n) (0,1,2……∞)

Each experiment has only two possible Poisson distribution is used to describe the behavior of
outcomes( Success/Failure), trails are rare events where probability of success is very low. e.g.
independent, probability of success constant The number of accidents in a busy road, Number of deaths
reported in a city due to cancer, heart attacks, cancer,
Mutually exclusive event( Success/Failure) tumor, suicides etc

Number of success =r (r=0,1,2,…………n) Number of success =r (r=0, 1,2,………… ∞)

n and p are parameters  λ is a parameter

 Mean ( µ) = np and Variance (σ2 ) = npq Mean ( µ) = λ and Variance (σ2 ) = λ , SD( σ) = λ

 Probability Function  Probability Function

Poisson Distribution
P ( X  r )  nc p r q n  r e  r
r P( X  r ) 
r!
Where
n!
nc  r  0,1, 2,3.......... .......... ..n
r ( n  r )!r!   mean of the distribution
e  Base of natural log arithms and e  2.71828
r  number of success
Where n= no of experiment r= number of
Success, p =probability of Success, q=
probability of failure
 Examples
The probability that a person suffering from migraine headache will relief with a particular
drug is 0.9. Three randomly selected suffers from migraine headache are given the drug.
Find out the probability that the number obtaining relief will be :
1. exactly zero 2.more than one 3.at most two
4 two or three 5. at least one

It is known that from past experience that in a certain plant there are on average 4
industrial accidents per year. Find the probability that in a given year there will be
i. Less than 4 accidents
ii. At least 4 accidents
iii. Exactly two accidents
iv. No accidents
v. at most 2 accidents
If there is 500 workers , find approximately the number of workers with 2 accidents.
Example
The probability that a person suffering from migraine headache will relief with a particular
drug is 0.9. Three randomly selected suffers from migraine headache are given the drug.
Find out the probability that the number obtaining relief will be :
1. exactly zero 2.more than one 3.at most two
4 two or three 5. at least one

Given
Probability of Suffering from Migraine headache will relief (P) =0.9
Probability of Suffering from Migraine headache will not relief (q) =0.1
Number of person (n) =3
r=0,1,2,3
r n r
1. p(x=0) = ?
P ( X  r )  nc p q
r
3 0
3c 0.9 0.1
0

0
 0.001
 2.P (X>1) = ?

P ( X  1)  3c 0.9 2 0.13 2  3c 0.9 3 0.133

2 3
 0.243  0.729
 0.972

3.P(x≤2) = ?

P ( X  2)  3c 0.9 0 0.130  3c 0.91 0.131  3c 0.9 2 0.13 2

0 1 2
 0.001  0.027  0.243
 0.271
4. P(x=2) Or P(X=3) =?

P( X  2) 0r P( X  3)  3c 0.9 2 0.132  3c 0.9 3 0.133

2 3
 0.243  0.729
 0.972
5. P(X≥1) =?
P( X  1)  3c 0.91 0.131  3c 0.9 2 0.13 2  3c 0.9 3 0.133
1 2 3
 0.027  0.243  0.729
 0.999
 Example: Poisson Distribution

It is known that from past experience that in a certain plant there are on average 4
Industrial accidents per year. Find the probability that in a given year there will be
i. Less than 4 accidents
ii. At least 4 accidents
iii. Exactly two accidents
iv. No accidents
v. at most 2 accidents

If there is 500 workers , find approximately the number of workers with 2 accidents.
 Example Contd.
Given,

Mean ( )  4, Number of wor ker s ( N )  500

Number of Success (r )  0,1,2,3,4.......................
i. P ( X  4)  ?
ii. P ( X  4)  ?
iii.P ( X  2)  ?
iv.P ( X  0)  ?
V . P ( X  2)  ?
Number of wor ker s with 2 accidents (n)  ?
 Example Contd.

i. P( X  4)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)
e  4 40 e  4 41 e  4 4 2 e 4 43
   
0! 1! 2! 3!
4 16 64
 e (1  4   )
2 6
 0.0183 X (23.67)
 0.4332
Conclusion :
There is 43.32 % chance of having industrial accidents
less than 4 in a year.
 Example Contd.

ii. P ( X  4) 
We know,
P ( X  4 )  P ( X  4)  1
P ( X  4 )  1  P ( X  4)
 1  0.4332
 0.5668
Conclusion :
There is 56.68 % chance of having industrial accidents
more than or equal to 4 in a year.
 Example Contd.

iii. P( X  2) 
e 4 42

2!
 0.1464

Conclusion :
There is 14.64 % chance of having industrial accidents
exactly 2 in a year.
 Example Contd.
iv. P ( X  0) 
e  4 40

0!
 0.0183

Conclusion :

There is 1.83 % chance of having no industrial accidents in

a year.
 Example Contd.
i. P( X  2)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
e  4 40 e  4 41 e  4 4 2
   
0! 1! 2!
4 16
 e (1  4  )
2
 0.0183 X (13)
 0.2379
Conclusion :
There is 23.79 % chance of having industrial accidents
less than 2 in a year.
 Number of Wor ker s with two accidents  N * P ( X  2)
 500 * 0.1464
 73.2  73

Conclusion :

There will be 73 workers with two industrial accidents in a given year.

 Practical Exercise on Binomial Distribution

1.The probability that a patient recovers from a disease is

0.4. If 7 people are known to have contracted this disease,
what is the probability that
•.at least 6 survive
•from 3 to 5 survive
•exactly 5 survive
•Less than 2 survive
•At most two survive
 Practical Exercise on Poisson Distribution

The number of accidents in a year is attributed to

taxi drivers in city follows possion distribution with
mean 3. Out of 1000 taxi drivers, find approximately
the number of drivers with,
(I) no accidents
(II) more than 3 accidents
(III) at least 4 Accidents
(Iv) At most three accidents in a year