Scribd
Upload
131 views

Chapter 1 Introduction To System Dynamics Simulation

This document provides an overview of system dynamics simulation. It discusses that system dynamics simulation was originally introduced in the 1950s to study non-linear systems and feedback control. It has since been applied to various fields like economics, healthcare, and biology. The document defines key concepts of system dynamics like systems, feedback loops, and simulation. It compares system dynamics to other simulation techniques and discusses characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the system dynamics approach. Finally, it provides some examples of applications of system dynamics simulation in different fields.

Uploaded by

Cheng Natalie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
131 views

Chapter 1 Introduction To System Dynamics Simulation

This document provides an overview of system dynamics simulation. It discusses that system dynamics simulation was originally introduced in the 1950s to study non-linear systems and feedback control. It has since been applied to various fields like economics, healthcare, and biology. The document defines key concepts of system dynamics like systems, feedback loops, and simulation. It compares system dynamics to other simulation techniques and discusses characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the system dynamics approach. Finally, it provides some examples of applications of system dynamics simulation in different fields.

Uploaded by

Cheng Natalie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 18

INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM

DYNAMICS SIMULATION

CHAPTER ONE
Historical Overview

Computer simulation technique originally introduced


by Jay W. Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in the mid-1950s
Has been widely used in numerous areas: economics,
finance, environmental studies, healthcare,
information technology, and biology
At first (1950) – used to study non-linear system and
feedback control in engineering sciences background –
to determine how science and engineering could be
used to determine success or failure of an industry
application of system dynamics was extended to non-
corporate fields
System

System:
 as a collection of components and their inter-relationships
which have been grouped together for the purpose of
studying some parts of the real world
 set of independent elements that are interconnected with
each other and any changes of any element in the system will
affect the set as a whole
Main focus: is to comprehend how the elements in
a system interact with one another – through
feedback loop
Example: population
Simulation – cont’d

When a study is relatively complex, simulation technique is


the only way to model the behaviours in the complex system
Other methodologies based on equations or analytical
approaches are not practical or even possible to be applied
due to the complexity of the problem
Simulation as a collection of methods and applications to
mimic the variation of real systems by using appropriate
software
The process of designing a model of a real system and
conducting experiments with this model for the purpose
either of understanding the behaviour of the system or of
evaluating various strategies for the operation of the
system”
Simulation = cont’d

Without simulation, conceptual models can only be


tested and improved by relying on the learning
feedback through the real world which is very slow
and often rendered ineffective by dynamic
complexity, time delays, inadequate and ambiguous
feedback, poor reasoning skills, defensive reactions
and the costs of experimentation”
Simulation = cont’d

Simulation techniques available such as discrete


event simulation, system dynamics, input-output
analysis, agent based simulation, feedback and
control theory
Strengths:
 Numerous analyses can be conducted by simulating the
developed model repeatedly
 provides quantitative and qualitative information – enhance
decision making
 can diagnose specific problems, conduct an experiment with
new ideas, and propose the most appropriate solution
System Dynamics (SD) Approach

System dynamics (SD), which is a simulation


technique, is an approach to understand behaviour
over time of a complex and dynamic system
Behaviour over time represents the variations and
trends in the variable of interest
The problem under study is analysed as an entire
system.
Strength of system dynamics is that it can help improve
decision making process and policy formation by
incorporating all the relevant cause and effect
relationships, time delays, and feedback loops in a
dynamic behaviour mode of systems
System Dynamics (SD) Approach

Most of the complex behaviours usually arise from


the interactions (feedback) among the components
of the system
Analysing feedback between the components can
create loops of interaction in the system, which is a
way to understand the structure and behaviours of
the system
Example: try to think..
Example
System Dynamics Characteristics
CRITERIA SD DES
Modelling Causal structure of the system causes Randomness associated with
Philosophy behaviour and model building reveals interconnected variables leads to system
this behaviour.
Representation System represented as stocks and System represented as queues and
flows activities, processes

Feedback Feedback explicit Feedback Implicit


Relationship Interested in identification of Relationships can be nonlinear but
nonlinear relationships mostly are linear

Interpretation of Results are easy to interpret, it does Interpretation of results require


results not require in-depth knowledge of statistical knowledge
statistics
Data SD Models are not heavily dependent DES models are highly data dependent
on numerical data

Complexity Complexity increases linearly with size Complexity increases exponentially with
of the model. size of the model.
System Dynamics Characteristics
CRITERIA SD DES

Type of Model Qualitative Model/Quantitative Quantitative Model

Resolution of Models Homogenised entities, continuous Individual entities, attributes, decisions


policy pressures and emerging and events
behaviour
Accuracy of the System Dynamists are not interested in DES due to its heavy reliance on data
model acute accuracy, As stated that SD produces accurate, statistically valid
models are never more than 40% models.
accurate. They are more interested in
the outcome of model as learning
laboratories.

Client confidence SD models generate confidence in DES model generate confidence by


clients by engaging with mental models engaging with data provided by the client

Underlying SD models the behaviour of system DES use statistical distributions to model
Mathematics using differential equations the increments of simulation clock.
System Dynamics Characteristics

CRITERIA SD DES
Computer Animation computer animation is limited to DES , with its computer animation
graphs and equations capabilities where entities can be shown
moving across the system help more in
visual understanding of process flow

System focus Holistic view, wider focus Analytic view, narrow focus  
Clarity of the system Fuzzy, ambiguous Clearly defined  
Organisational Level Strategic Level Operational Tactical Level  
Relation to Outside Un-isolated continuous system with Isolated discrete system with no
world cross boundary interactions interactions with the outside world.  

System processes Focus is on continuous nonlinear Focus is on discrete linear processes.


 
processes.
System Orientation SD focus more on modelling systems DES focuses more on modelling
 
processes.
System Dynamics Characteristics

CRITERIA SD DES
Problem scope Strategic level Operational Level
Problem Purpose Gaining understanding, parameter Precise prediction
estimation
Problem perspective The understanding of the problem Understanding of the problem lies in
lies in analysis of causal feedback analysis of randomness associated with
effects interconnected processes and events.

Problem studied Strategic Level Operational & tactical Level


Importance of Low High
randomness

Complexity of Dynamic complexity Detail complexity


importance

Required resolution Aggregate, Holistic Detailed


Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
 More dynamic information is provided
 Cause and effect relationship can be determined
 Able to conduct multiple simulations in a model under
different circumstances.
 Capable of analysing the impact of different policies
Weaknesses
 not dependent on high quality data unlike other statistical
techniques
 Individual analysis
 Assessing discrete factors since it works in a continuous
environment
Hybrid Simulation

- Individual analysis
lack of - Short term decision making
System dynamics
- modelling hard or tangible
factor
provides

provides
- Long term decision making
- Feedback loop lack of Discrete Event
- modelling soft or intangible Simulation
factor
Application of System Dynamics
  Authors Application
Fields
  Dangerfield et al. (2001), To solve problems in the area of disease
  Roberts and Dangerfield epidemiology, particularly HIV/AIDS.
  (1990).
  Taylor and Dangerfield To determine the unintended
  (2005), Taylor et al. (2005).
consequences of healthcare service
  expansion.
  Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin To identify the most effective
  (2012), Dangerfield and behavioural change strategy from
Healthcare Abidin (2011). dietary intake and physical activity
improvement to prevent obesity.
Zulkepli (2012). To model healthcare integration in
three different institutions, i.e.
healthcare, intermediate and social
care.
Ahmad et al. (2014) To model emergency department
operations from a whole system
perspective.
Application of System Dynamics
  An and Jeng (2005), To simulate a business
  Ashayeri et al. (1998), process.
Business Rodrigues et al. (2006).
Management Kiani et al. (2009). To investigate business cost
factors.
Angerhofer and To analyse supply chain
Angelides (2000), management.
Sachan et al. (2005).

  Barlas et al. (1997), To address the managerial


  Barlas et al. (2000) and organizational problems
  of a Turkish insurance
  company.
Insurance MacDonald (2002). To investigate the impact of
deposit insurance incentives
on the behaviour of key
stakeholders in a commercial
bank.
Application of System Dynamics

  Qureshi (2009). To model, identify and help


  manage human development
  and economic growth in
  Pakistan.
 
Economics
Dangerfield (2005). To provide a timeline for the
state of Sarawak government
in managing the transition
from a production-based
economy to a knowledge-
based economy.

You might also like